Game · 2025-26 Semifinal Series
4/28 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+54.6pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 2,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +48.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 25% | 26% | 23% | +2.5 | +1.6 | -5.1 | +1.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,000 from Kosuke Nagai | 28% | 24% | 24% | 24% | -8.7 | +9.2 | +1.1 | -1.6 |
| East 2 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 32% | 24% | 23% | +24.2 | -13.1 | -5.7 | -5.4 |
| East 3 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 40% | 21% | 20% | 19% | -3.7 | -3.8 | -14.4 | +21.9 |
| East 4 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 8,000 | 34% | 20% | 12% | 35% | +25.4 | -6.2 | -5.0 | -14.1 |
| South 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 1,500 | 63% | 12% | 8% | 18% | -1.9 | -2.4 | -6.8 | +11.1 |
| South 2 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 61% | 10% | 5% | 25% | -12.7 | +37.2 | -8.6 | -15.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 2,700 | 45% | 36% | 3% | 16% | +0.4 | -6.8 | -2.9 | +9.3 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 46% | 28% | 3% | 23% | -10.7 | +32.0 | -13.9 | -7.5 |
| South 4 | Saki Kurosawa ron 7,700 from Hisato Sasaki | 17% | 72% | 0% | 11% | +4.2 | -39.7 | -0.3 | +35.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 2,000 | 34% | 18% | 0% | 48% | -29.0 | +48.0 | +0.3 | -19.3 |