Game · 2025-26 Semifinals
4/28 Game 1
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+54.6pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Sasaki Hisato tsumo 2,000, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +48.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nagai Kosuke 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Nagai Kosuke Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 26% | +5.1 | +1.7 | -3.2 | -3.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 1,000 from Nagai Kosuke | 28% | 26% | 22% | 24% | -7.3 | +8.2 | -1.0 | +0.2 |
| East 2 | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 32% | 22% | 23% | +23.8 | -13.3 | -6.2 | -4.3 |
| East 3 | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 8,000 | 42% | 20% | 18% | 20% | -5.2 | -4.1 | -12.4 | +21.8 |
| East 4 | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 8,000 | 36% | 18% | 10% | 35% | +25.8 | -6.9 | -4.3 | -14.5 |
| South 1 | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 1,500 | 64% | 9% | 7% | 19% | -2.6 | -0.3 | -5.6 | +8.4 |
| South 2 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 62% | 10% | 6% | 22% | -13.4 | +36.4 | -9.3 | -13.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 2,700 | 44% | 36% | 4% | 16% | -0.8 | -5.3 | -2.4 | +8.4 |
| South 3 | Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 43% | 31% | 4% | 22% | -8.8 | +29.8 | -14.6 | -6.4 |
| South 4 | Kurosawa Saki ron 7,700 from Sasaki Hisato | 19% | 70% | 0% | 12% | +5.2 | -39.1 | 0.0 | +34.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 2,000 | 36% | 17% | 0% | 46% | -30.6 | +48.2 | +0.1 | -17.7 |