Game · 2025-26 Semifinal Series
4/30 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+60.1pt). The game was decided in East 3: Arisa Date tsumo 18,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +49.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rio Tojyo ron 1,300 from Ken Sonoda | 27% | 23% | 25% | 25% | -9.0 | +8.4 | +0.1 | +0.5 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 31% | 26% | 25% | -2.2 | +1.5 | -2.9 | +3.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Arisa Date | 18% | 30% | 22% | 29% | -1.6 | -2.7 | -14.8 | +19.0 |
| East 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 18,000 | 17% | 26% | 14% | 44% | -14.5 | -17.0 | +49.7 | -18.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 15% | 50% | 26% | +33.6 | -8.2 | -17.2 | -8.1 |
| East 4 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 5,200 | 29% | 13% | 35% | 23% | -1.7 | +14.6 | -4.2 | -8.7 |
| South 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 29% | 21% | 32% | 18% | -20.9 | -5.4 | +32.1 | -5.8 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date ron 5,200 from Ken Sonoda | 8% | 13% | 67% | 11% | -17.0 | -1.0 | +17.9 | +0.1 |
| South 3 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 2% | 91% | 6% | -10.6 | +23.5 | -7.5 | -5.3 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Rio Tojyo | 0% | 10% | 85% | 5% | -3.6 | -8.9 | +1.0 | +11.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Ken Sonoda | 0% | 4% | 87% | 8% | -6.5 | -1.9 | -0.9 | +9.4 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 0% | 4% | 85% | 11% | +32.2 | +5.9 | +7.0 | -45.1 |