Game · 2025-26 Semifinals
4/30 Game 2
Date Arisa finished 1st (+60.1pt). The game was decided in East 3: Date Arisa tsumo 18,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +46.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Tojyo Rio ron 1,300 from Sonoda Ken | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -10.0 | +7.1 | -0.4 | +3.4 |
| East 2 | Draw | 18% | 30% | 25% | 28% | -0.7 | +1.5 | -2.3 | +1.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 3,900 from Date Arisa | 19% | 31% | 23% | 28% | -1.9 | -2.0 | -14.6 | +18.5 |
| East 3 | Date Arisa tsumo 18,000 | 16% | 27% | 14% | 42% | -14.4 | -16.1 | +46.6 | -16.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 15% | 47% | 28% | +31.9 | -7.9 | -13.2 | -10.7 |
| East 4 | Tojyo Rio tsumo 5,200 | 29% | 13% | 37% | 22% | -3.4 | +15.6 | -3.5 | -8.8 |
| South 1 | Date Arisa tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 22% | 34% | 18% | -18.5 | -9.3 | +31.9 | -4.1 |
| South 2 | Date Arisa ron 5,200 from Sonoda Ken | 8% | 12% | 69% | 11% | -17.6 | -0.2 | +16.8 | +0.9 |
| South 3 | Tojyo Rio tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 2% | 91% | 6% | -10.9 | +23.9 | -7.5 | -5.6 |
| South 4 | Katsumata Kenji ron 3,900 from Tojyo Rio | 0% | 9% | 86% | 5% | -2.7 | -8.3 | +0.7 | +10.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 3,900 from Sonoda Ken | 0% | 4% | 88% | 8% | -6.4 | -2.4 | -1.5 | +10.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 0% | 4% | 84% | 12% | +32.2 | +6.2 | +7.3 | -45.7 |