Game · 2026-27 Regular Season
9/21 Table B Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+101.9pt). The game was decided in East 4, 3 honba: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +40.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sano Hinako 1st-place chance | Nagai Kosuke 1st-place chance | Aikawa Megumu 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Sano Hinako Expected pt change | Nagai Kosuke Expected pt change | Aikawa Megumu Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sano Hinako ron 1,500 from Nagai Kosuke | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | +5.3 | -4.9 | +1.1 | -1.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Nagai Kosuke ron 8,000 from Sano Hinako | 30% | 21% | 25% | 24% | -23.4 | +24.2 | +0.5 | -1.2 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 5,200 | 14% | 38% | 26% | 23% | -2.6 | -10.9 | -2.5 | +16.1 |
| East 3 | Aikawa Megumu ron 1,500 from Setokuma Naoki | 14% | 28% | 24% | 35% | -1.4 | +0.8 | +2.6 | -1.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 13% | 29% | 25% | 34% | -1.0 | -2.6 | +7.1 | -3.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 12% | 28% | 30% | 30% | +9.0 | -2.2 | -3.6 | -3.2 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 27% | 27% | 30% | -12.2 | -12.7 | -15.3 | +40.1 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000 | 8% | 12% | 12% | 67% | -10.0 | -11.0 | -12.4 | +33.4 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Nagai Kosuke | 1% | 2% | 2% | 95% | +1.3 | -11.2 | +3.2 | +6.7 |
| East 4, 6 honba | Draw | 1% | 1% | 1% | 97% | +0.8 | -0.7 | -2.5 | +2.5 |
| East 4, 7 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 1,500 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 98% | -1.3 | -4.2 | -0.6 | +6.1 |
| East 4, 8 honba | Aikawa Megumu ron 3,900 from Sano Hinako | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -14.2 | 0.0 | +15.1 | -1.0 |
| South 1 | Sano Hinako ron 12,000 from Nagai Kosuke | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | +25.6 | -24.2 | -1.0 | -0.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 1% | 0% | 1% | 98% | -2.4 | +0.4 | -0.1 | +2.1 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -0.2 | -7.8 | +0.5 | +7.4 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -0.9 | -1.2 | 0.0 | +2.2 |
| South 4 | Nagai Kosuke ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -4.0 | +2.3 | +4.7 | -3.0 |