Game · 2026-27 Regular Season
9/21 Table B Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+101.9pt). The game was decided in East 4, 3 honba: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +39.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hinako Sano 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Megumu Aikawa 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Hinako Sano Expected pt change | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change | Megumu Aikawa Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hinako Sano ron 1,500 from Kosuke Nagai | 27% | 24% | 24% | 24% | +6.3 | -6.9 | -0.2 | +0.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 8,000 from Hinako Sano | 30% | 20% | 23% | 26% | -25.4 | +25.1 | +2.7 | -2.4 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 5,200 | 13% | 37% | 26% | 24% | -0.8 | -12.0 | -4.8 | +17.6 |
| East 3 | Megumu Aikawa ron 1,500 from Naoki Setokuma | 13% | 27% | 22% | 38% | -0.9 | +1.6 | +4.0 | -4.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 27% | 26% | 34% | -3.2 | -1.3 | +4.1 | +0.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 28% | 27% | 34% | +10.2 | -3.2 | -2.5 | -4.5 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 25% | 26% | 30% | -11.5 | -12.8 | -14.7 | +39.0 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 18,000 | 9% | 13% | 11% | 67% | -11.7 | -10.1 | -11.8 | +33.6 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Kosuke Nagai | 1% | 2% | 2% | 95% | +3.6 | -10.9 | +1.4 | +6.0 |
| East 4, 6 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 1% | 2% | 97% | -0.7 | -1.1 | -0.7 | +2.5 |
| East 4, 7 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 1,500 | 1% | 1% | 2% | 97% | -1.5 | -3.6 | -0.9 | +6.0 |
| East 4, 8 honba | Megumu Aikawa ron 3,900 from Hinako Sano | 0% | 0% | 0% | 99% | -13.9 | -0.6 | +16.1 | -1.6 |
| South 1 | Hinako Sano ron 12,000 from Kosuke Nagai | 0% | 0% | 2% | 98% | +25.5 | -24.5 | -1.1 | +0.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -4.1 | +1.0 | +0.9 | +2.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | +1.1 | -8.2 | -0.3 | +7.5 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -1.0 | -0.7 | -0.6 | +2.3 |
| South 4 | Kosuke Nagai ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -3.7 | +2.0 | +4.8 | -3.2 |