Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2026-27 Regular Season

9/24 Table B Game 2

Nikaido Aki finished 1st (+61.9pt). The game was decided in South 1: Nikaido Aki ron 12,000 from Sonoda Ken, which moved Nikaido Aki's expected points by +31.6.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 3End● Nikaido Aki● Nakabayashi Kei● Date Arisa● Sonoda Ken0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Nikaido● Nakabayashi● Date● Sonoda
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultNikaido Aki
1st-place chance
Nakabayashi Kei
1st-place chance
Date Arisa
1st-place chance
Sonoda Ken
1st-place chance
Nikaido Aki
Expected pt change
Nakabayashi Kei
Expected pt change
Date Arisa
Expected pt change
Sonoda Ken
Expected pt change
East 1Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Date Arisa25%23%26%26%-3.9+26.9-23.1+0.1
East 2Draw20%42%13%24%+1.3-3.3+3.2-1.2
East 3, 1 honbaDraw21%41%15%24%-7.2+6.1+3.7-2.6
East 3, 2 honbaSonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Date Arisa17%47%15%21%+0.5-2.3-27.3+29.1
East 4Draw14%40%4%42%-1.3+2.4-2.9+1.8
East 4, 1 honbaNikaido Aki tsumo 8,00014%42%3%41%+27.8-8.9-4.3-14.5
South 1Nikaido Aki ron 12,000 from Sonoda Ken34%34%3%29%+31.6+0.3+1.8-33.7
South 1, 1 honbaSonoda Ken ron 5,200 from Date Arisa67%25%2%5%-0.9-2.2-12.1+15.2
South 2Nikaido Aki ron 1,000 from Date Arisa68%22%1%10%+7.9-5.0-1.7-1.1
South 3Date Arisa tsumo 7,80080%12%1%8%-2.3-3.4+9.9-4.2
South 3, 1 honbaSonoda Ken tsumo 2,70081%11%2%7%+2.1-1.7-5.9+5.5
South 4Sonoda Ken ron 2,900 from Date Arisa86%5%0%9%-0.9-1.2-3.2+5.4
South 4, 1 honbaNakabayashi Kei ron 1,000 from Date Arisa84%5%0%11%+6.7+6.2-0.7-12.3

All 2026-27 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)