Game · 2026-27 Regular Season

10/5 Game 2

Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+63.4pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Sasaki Hisato tsumo 5,200, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +39.1.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Aikawa Megumu 1st-place chance	Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance	Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance	Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance	Aikawa Megumu Expected pt change	Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change	Nikaido Aki Expected pt change	Shiratori Sho Expected pt change
East 1	Nikaido Aki ron 3,900 from Sasaki Hisato	24%	26%	25%	25%	+0.2	-12.3	+10.3	+1.8
East 2	Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000	25%	18%	32%	25%	-12.9	+35.5	-8.1	-14.5
East 2, 1 honba	Shiratori Sho tsumo 2,000	16%	43%	25%	16%	0.0	-4.6	-3.9	+8.4
East 3	Nikaido Aki ron 1,500 from Aikawa Megumu	16%	39%	22%	22%	-4.0	-1.4	+6.4	-1.0
East 3, 1 honba	Draw	14%	39%	26%	21%	-8.5	+4.2	+1.0	+3.3
East 3, 2 honba	Sasaki Hisato ron 1,000 from Nikaido Aki	10%	41%	27%	23%	-0.6	+8.9	-6.8	-1.5
East 4	Shiratori Sho tsumo 2,100	9%	50%	20%	21%	-3.5	-3.6	-2.4	+9.5
East 4, 1 honba	Shiratori Sho ron 12,000 from Nikaido Aki	8%	48%	18%	26%	+1.0	-5.8	-31.7	+36.4
East 4, 2 honba	Draw	6%	33%	4%	58%	-1.8	+3.2	+0.7	-2.2
South 1, 3 honba	Sasaki Hisato ron 2,600 from Aikawa Megumu	5%	35%	5%	56%	-9.2	+10.8	-1.1	-0.6
South 2	Aikawa Megumu ron 2,000 from Shiratori Sho	0%	45%	3%	51%	+6.0	+0.9	-2.8	-4.1
South 3	Aikawa Megumu tsumo 2,000	1%	51%	3%	46%	+7.0	+8.7	-9.1	-6.6
South 4	Shiratori Sho ron 5,800 from Nikaido Aki	0%	70%	0%	30%	+1.7	-21.0	-7.9	+27.2
South 4, 1 honba	Sasaki Hisato tsumo 5,200	0%	19%	0%	81%	-0.6	+39.1	-1.9	-36.5

All 2026-27 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)