Game · 2026-27 Regular Season
10/16 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+78.3pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Aiko Hinata, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +28.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Genta Takeuchi 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change | Genta Takeuchi Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 7,700 from Daisuke Suzuki | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | +21.2 | -20.2 | -1.4 | +0.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Aiko Hinata | 40% | 14% | 23% | 23% | +28.6 | +1.5 | -1.3 | -28.7 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 64% | 11% | 18% | 8% | +5.3 | -2.3 | -0.1 | -2.9 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 69% | 9% | 16% | 6% | +5.7 | +3.3 | -5.3 | -3.7 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 75% | 9% | 12% | 5% | -12.0 | +20.5 | -4.7 | -3.9 |
| East 2 | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 18,000 | 64% | 18% | 12% | 6% | -18.1 | +41.2 | -12.9 | -10.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,200 from Genta Takeuchi | 37% | 54% | 6% | 3% | +16.0 | -7.9 | -10.3 | +2.2 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 53% | 40% | 4% | 3% | -1.4 | -1.2 | +6.5 | -3.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Daisuke Suzuki ron 1,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 53% | 40% | 5% | 2% | -4.6 | +8.7 | -3.5 | -0.7 |
| East 4 | Aiko Hinata ron 12,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 45% | 50% | 3% | 2% | +5.2 | -26.6 | -1.3 | +22.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 62% | 27% | 4% | 7% | +4.1 | +0.8 | -1.5 | -3.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 68% | 25% | 3% | 4% | +23.4 | -28.6 | +2.8 | +2.4 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 92% | 4% | 2% | 2% | +15.9 | -5.9 | -4.3 | -5.7 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 1,500 | 98% | 1% | 0% | 1% | +2.5 | -0.4 | -1.4 | -0.7 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Genta Takeuchi ron 8,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 99% | 1% | 0% | 0% | -0.8 | -23.9 | +24.0 | +0.7 |
| South 2 | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 3,900 | 99% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1.8 | +12.9 | -4.6 | -6.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Genta Takeuchi tsumo 2,000 | 99% | 1% | 1% | 0% | +0.2 | -4.4 | +7.5 | -3.3 |
| South 3 | Genta Takeuchi ron 12,000 from Aiko Hinata | 99% | 0% | 1% | 0% | -0.6 | -0.5 | +20.1 | -18.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Genta Takeuchi ron 1,500 from Aiko Hinata | 98% | 0% | 2% | 0% | +0.3 | +0.2 | +1.8 | -2.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 98% | 0% | 2% | 0% | -0.5 | -0.5 | +2.2 | -1.2 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Genta Takeuchi ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 98% | 0% | 2% | 0% | -6.8 | -0.9 | +7.8 | 0.0 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Genta Takeuchi ron 1,500 from Aiko Hinata | 94% | 0% | 6% | 0% | -0.2 | +0.3 | +4.3 | -4.4 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Genta Takeuchi ron 5,800 from Naoki Setokuma | 93% | 0% | 7% | 0% | -15.6 | -0.2 | +15.4 | +0.5 |
| South 3, 6 honba | Genta Takeuchi tsumo 12,000 | 74% | 0% | 26% | 0% | -27.7 | -4.4 | +37.0 | -4.9 |
| South 3, 7 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 2,000 | 16% | 0% | 84% | 0% | +7.2 | -0.3 | -5.4 | -1.5 |
| South 4 | Aiko Hinata ron 5,800 from Genta Takeuchi | 22% | 0% | 78% | 0% | +15.4 | -0.6 | -20.9 | +6.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,000 from Genta Takeuchi | 60% | 0% | 40% | 0% | +18.1 | +2.2 | -17.8 | -2.5 |