Game · 2026-27 Regular Season
10/20 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+78.8pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +34.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | HIRO Shibata 1st-place chance | Wataru Shirinashihama 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | HIRO Shibata Expected pt change | Wataru Shirinashihama Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,900 from Futoshi Watanabe | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | +9.3 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -8.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,500 from Futoshi Watanabe | 31% | 25% | 25% | 19% | +4.3 | -2.7 | +0.8 | -2.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Wataru Shirinashihama tsumo 8,000 | 36% | 21% | 25% | 18% | -13.9 | -3.5 | +22.8 | -5.4 |
| East 2 | Wataru Shirinashihama tsumo 5,200 | 23% | 20% | 42% | 15% | -1.7 | -11.1 | +14.7 | -1.9 |
| East 3 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 1,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 20% | 11% | 56% | 14% | -2.2 | 0.0 | +1.9 | +0.3 |
| East 4 | Wataru Shirinashihama ron 8,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 17% | 11% | 60% | 12% | -0.4 | +1.5 | +19.5 | -20.5 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,800 from Wataru Shirinashihama | 10% | 6% | 81% | 2% | +14.8 | -0.4 | -13.7 | -0.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 9% | 65% | 4% | +34.4 | -7.9 | -18.1 | -8.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 6,000 | 60% | 5% | 34% | 2% | +17.3 | -4.5 | -10.1 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 3 honba | HIRO Shibata ron 5,200 from Wataru Shirinashihama | 81% | 2% | 17% | 1% | +2.3 | +11.9 | -12.0 | -2.3 |
| South 2 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 5,200 | 89% | 3% | 8% | 1% | +0.7 | -8.0 | -1.0 | +8.3 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,200 from Futoshi Watanabe | 92% | 0% | 6% | 1% | +8.7 | +1.9 | -1.5 | -9.1 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 4,000 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | +4.0 | -0.1 | +2.6 | -6.4 |