Game · 2026-27 Regular Season
10/22 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+68.7pt). The game was decided in East 1, 2 honba: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +31.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Kazuma Ishii 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Kazuma Ishii Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +4.5 | +1.2 | -3.0 | -2.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 2,900 from Hiroshi Daigo | 27% | 26% | 23% | 24% | +10.1 | -9.2 | +0.3 | -1.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 36% | 20% | 22% | 23% | -16.6 | -6.8 | +31.0 | -7.6 |
| East 2 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 5,800 from Takaharu Ooi | 23% | 16% | 44% | 18% | -15.2 | +13.0 | +3.1 | -0.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 22% | 49% | 16% | -2.8 | +5.3 | -3.8 | +1.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 26% | 45% | 17% | -3.7 | -1.9 | +7.2 | -1.6 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Kazuma Ishii ron 1,300 from Takaharu Ooi | 10% | 23% | 51% | 15% | -5.9 | -1.4 | -3.2 | +10.5 |
| East 4 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 2,000 from Kazuma Ishii | 8% | 22% | 49% | 21% | -1.6 | +5.2 | +5.0 | -8.7 |
| South 1 | Takaharu Ooi ron 2,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 7% | 22% | 56% | 14% | +5.7 | +1.5 | -7.8 | +0.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 26% | 48% | 17% | -7.7 | +6.8 | -1.6 | +2.5 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 1,500 from Kei Nakabayashi | 5% | 32% | 46% | 18% | -1.1 | +9.8 | -8.4 | -0.3 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,700 | 5% | 42% | 36% | 17% | -5.9 | -9.0 | +18.3 | -3.3 |
| South 3 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 27% | 58% | 13% | -5.3 | -14.1 | +28.3 | -8.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kazuma Ishii ron 5,200 from Takaharu Ooi | 0% | 3% | 93% | 4% | -12.2 | +0.6 | -0.3 | +11.9 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 0% | 1% | 94% | 5% | -2.1 | +5.8 | +4.8 | -8.6 |