Game · 2026-27 Regular Season

10/29 Game 1

HIRO Shibata finished 1st (+65.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: HIRO Shibata ron 32,000 from Arisa Date, which moved HIRO Shibata's expected points by +110.0.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	HIRO Shibata 1st-place chance	Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance	Arisa Date 1st-place chance	Genta Takeuchi 1st-place chance	HIRO Shibata Expected pt change	Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change	Arisa Date Expected pt change	Genta Takeuchi Expected pt change
East 1	Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000	27%	25%	25%	23%	-13.6	+22.5	-6.5	-2.4
East 2	Exhaustive draw	17%	42%	21%	21%	-1.5	+4.4	-1.9	-1.0
East 2, 1 honba	Arisa Date ron 3,900 from Genta Takeuchi	15%	44%	19%	22%	-1.2	-1.0	+14.8	-12.6
East 3	Exhaustive draw	14%	44%	28%	13%	-2.0	+2.5	-0.3	-0.2
East 3, 1 honba	HIRO Shibata tsumo 8,000	13%	46%	27%	14%	+27.4	-3.9	-12.3	-11.2
East 4	Exhaustive draw	30%	42%	19%	9%	-0.9	-4.1	-3.5	+8.5
East 4, 1 honba	Exhaustive draw	30%	41%	15%	14%	-3.7	-0.7	+1.2	+3.2
East 4, 2 honba	Exhaustive draw	29%	39%	17%	15%	-1.9	+3.1	-5.9	+4.7
East 4, 3 honba	HIRO Shibata tsumo 2,700	26%	42%	15%	17%	+21.6	-4.2	-6.2	-11.1
South 1	Exhaustive draw	44%	36%	11%	9%	+1.7	-3.7	-2.4	+4.4
South 1, 1 honba	Arisa Date ron 8,000 from HIRO Shibata	46%	33%	10%	11%	-29.5	+1.0	+32.5	-4.1
South 2	Arisa Date tsumo 5,200	20%	37%	32%	11%	-4.3	-16.1	+26.6	-6.2
South 3	Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000	14%	16%	61%	8%	-13.9	+54.0	-32.3	-7.8
South 4	Genta Takeuchi tsumo 24,000	2%	89%	5%	4%	-24.7	-38.5	-26.2	+89.4
South 4, 1 honba	HIRO Shibata ron 32,000 from Arisa Date	0%	15%	1%	84%	+110.0	-23.9	-51.6	-34.5

All 2026-27 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)