Game · 2026-27 Regular Season
10/29 Game 2
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+56.1pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +41.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Kazuma Ishii 1st-place chance | Hinako Sano 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Kazuma Ishii Expected pt change | Hinako Sano Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 26% | 24% | +4.4 | -2.7 | -7.4 | +5.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kazuma Ishii tsumo 8,000 | 28% | 24% | 21% | 27% | -19.3 | -5.0 | +29.9 | -5.6 |
| East 2 | Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Kazuma Ishii | 15% | 19% | 44% | 23% | +0.7 | +30.3 | -29.8 | -1.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 40% | 22% | 24% | -1.1 | -2.0 | -7.4 | +10.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 15% | 39% | 16% | 31% | -4.9 | +4.3 | -0.3 | +1.0 |
| East 4 | Hinako Sano ron 4,800 from Masato Hagiwara | 12% | 43% | 14% | 31% | -13.2 | -1.7 | -0.2 | +15.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 5,200 from Hisato Sasaki | 7% | 38% | 13% | 42% | +14.0 | -12.0 | -0.9 | -1.1 |
| South 1 | Hinako Sano ron 3,900 from Masato Hagiwara | 13% | 30% | 14% | 44% | -16.6 | -0.2 | +0.2 | +16.7 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 23% | 11% | 63% | -3.4 | -3.6 | +5.4 | +1.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kazuma Ishii ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 2% | 17% | 13% | 68% | -21.2 | -11.1 | +43.4 | -11.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 10% | 48% | 42% | -2.3 | +41.4 | -24.1 | -15.0 |
| South 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 2,600 from Hinako Sano | 0% | 58% | 17% | 25% | +2.8 | +19.7 | +2.4 | -24.9 |