Game · 2026-27 Regular Season
10/30 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+61.7pt). The game was decided in East 4, 4 honba: Sayaka Okada tsumo 18,000, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +45.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -3.6 | +4.4 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 2,100 | 22% | 29% | 24% | 26% | -3.1 | +6.7 | -1.5 | -2.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 20% | 34% | 22% | 24% | +24.1 | +1.1 | -1.6 | -23.5 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 5,200 | 37% | 32% | 19% | 12% | -1.4 | -2.8 | -9.1 | +13.3 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 3,000 | 37% | 31% | 14% | 18% | -3.0 | -1.7 | -4.1 | +8.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 34% | 31% | 12% | 23% | +2.4 | -2.8 | -1.1 | +1.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 28% | 13% | 23% | -4.7 | +1.8 | -2.1 | +5.1 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 32% | 29% | 12% | 28% | -9.6 | -2.6 | -4.3 | +16.5 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 18,000 | 23% | 27% | 10% | 40% | -19.0 | -17.3 | -9.5 | +45.9 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 7% | 3% | 85% | -0.1 | -1.0 | -2.9 | +4.0 |
| East 4, 6 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 6% | 2% | 88% | -8.0 | +26.4 | -6.5 | -11.9 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,900 from Sayaka Okada | 4% | 18% | 2% | 77% | +7.5 | -2.4 | +0.4 | -5.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 18% | 3% | 72% | +4.4 | +0.7 | -2.5 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 9% | 21% | 2% | 68% | -6.9 | +4.1 | -1.4 | +4.2 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada ron 1,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 3% | 20% | 2% | 76% | +0.3 | -4.7 | -1.4 | +5.8 |
| South 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 2,700 | 1% | 10% | 1% | 87% | -1.1 | +4.1 | -5.4 | +2.4 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 7% | 0% | 92% | +3.8 | -2.0 | -1.5 | -0.3 |