Game · 2026-27 Regular Season
10/30 Table B Game 1
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+67.2pt). The game was decided in South 1, 3 honba: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +28.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Megumu Aikawa 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Megumu Aikawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rio Tojyo ron 2,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | +9.2 | -3.5 | -6.2 | +0.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Rio Tojyo | 32% | 23% | 21% | 24% | -23.0 | -0.2 | +21.1 | +2.0 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 16% | 22% | 36% | 25% | +0.4 | -14.5 | +13.4 | +0.6 |
| East 3 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,500 from Megumu Aikawa | 15% | 12% | 48% | 25% | -0.9 | -2.1 | +6.8 | -3.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 11% | 54% | 21% | +2.0 | -3.5 | -3.4 | +4.9 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 1,100 | 15% | 10% | 51% | 25% | -3.1 | -1.6 | +11.4 | -6.7 |
| South 1 | Rio Tojyo ron 12,000 from Megumu Aikawa | 11% | 7% | 65% | 16% | +34.0 | +1.0 | -4.3 | -30.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 12,000 from Megumu Aikawa | 32% | 7% | 56% | 5% | +30.8 | +0.4 | -9.4 | -21.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 63% | 4% | 32% | 1% | +4.0 | +0.4 | -2.5 | -1.9 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 68% | 4% | 28% | 1% | -21.4 | -5.0 | +28.7 | -2.3 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 2% | 67% | 0% | -3.1 | +1.5 | +3.4 | -1.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 1,500 | 27% | 2% | 71% | 0% | -2.7 | +5.0 | -0.3 | -2.1 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 3% | 73% | 0% | +3.2 | +2.1 | -3.8 | -1.5 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 3,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 29% | 4% | 67% | 0% | +3.8 | +9.0 | -12.3 | -0.5 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,000 from Megumu Aikawa | 40% | 7% | 52% | 1% | -2.3 | -5.4 | +11.3 | -3.6 |
| South 3 | Megumu Aikawa tsumo 4,000 | 32% | 1% | 67% | 0% | -2.3 | -1.6 | -0.6 | +4.6 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 1,500 | 26% | 0% | 73% | 1% | -11.1 | +0.1 | +13.9 | -2.9 |