Game · 2026-27 Regular Season
11/3 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+56.6pt). The game was decided in East 4, 1 honba: Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Rio Tojyo, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +28.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 2,700 | 24% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -4.3 | -2.3 | -1.9 | +8.5 |
| East 2 | Rio Tojyo ron 2,000 from Sayaka Okada | 21% | 22% | 25% | 32% | +1.6 | -9.1 | -0.4 | +7.8 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 21% | 17% | 23% | 38% | -1.1 | +25.8 | -25.7 | +1.0 |
| East 4 | Rio Tojyo ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada | 19% | 34% | 9% | 38% | +2.6 | -34.4 | +0.4 | +31.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Rio Tojyo | 16% | 7% | 7% | 70% | -2.5 | +28.1 | -5.2 | -20.4 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 26% | 7% | 49% | +8.9 | -4.8 | -0.3 | -3.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 5,200 from Rio Tojyo | 25% | 23% | 8% | 44% | -4.5 | +21.8 | -2.3 | -15.0 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 6,000 | 20% | 43% | 7% | 30% | -8.6 | +20.9 | -4.6 | -7.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 70% | 4% | 17% | -0.6 | -0.4 | +3.3 | -2.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 72% | 5% | 15% | +6.7 | -5.2 | +1.8 | -3.3 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 2,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 14% | 65% | 6% | 15% | -7.2 | +7.3 | -14.1 | +13.9 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 79% | 0% | 16% | -6.8 | +9.5 | +1.0 | -3.7 |