Game · 2026-27 Regular Season
11/5 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+50.8pt). The game was decided in South 4: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +67.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | HIRO Shibata 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | HIRO Shibata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -2.7 | +23.3 | -20.2 | -0.4 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 41% | 13% | 24% | +4.8 | +2.0 | -4.7 | -2.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 43% | 11% | 22% | -4.4 | +3.6 | -0.1 | +1.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | HIRO Shibata tsumo 8,000 | 20% | 46% | 11% | 23% | -7.4 | -15.8 | -7.6 | +30.8 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 6,400 from Hisato Sasaki | 15% | 29% | 8% | 48% | +19.3 | -18.0 | -5.1 | +3.8 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 16% | 5% | 52% | +8.3 | -2.5 | -1.8 | -4.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 5,200 | 34% | 15% | 5% | 47% | -8.1 | -6.4 | +11.5 | +3.1 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 2,000 | 26% | 12% | 7% | 54% | +2.3 | -8.1 | +7.0 | -1.2 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 28% | 7% | 10% | 55% | -28.8 | +24.8 | -8.9 | +12.8 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 11% | 3% | 79% | +67.6 | -18.9 | -12.4 | -36.3 |