Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Plan (Japanese)

Player · 43 career games · 2025-26–2026-27

Nagai Kosuke

In style, stands out for rare dama. Career record: +6.9pt per game, but allowing for luck the difference from average is not clear yet.

Actual / game
+6.9
43 career games
Skill estimate / game
+0.7
90% interval -4.6 to +5.9
Estimate, luck removed
+0.6
adjusted for starting hands, draws, ura-dora
Weight of the record
10%
share of the estimate from the record

Styleleague percentile, career

  • Average win value6,719
  • Riichi rate24.5%
  • Deal-in rate10.8%
  • Win rate19.8%
  • First riichi rate77.4%
  • Average riichi turn9.25
  • Call rate18.6%
  • Tenpai rate at draws41.5%
  • Staying in vs riichi14.0%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)44.2%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)25.2%
  • Efficiency match rate72.3%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.17
  • Immediate riichi rate73.1%
  • Dama rate9.1%

Colour only for metrics with a good side (red = good, blue = bad). Metrics of style, such as riichi rate, call rate and efficiency match rate, are grey. For tenpai turn, further right means later (a larger turn number). Values are estimates.

Placements43 career games, average placement 2.33

  • 1st37.2%16×
  • 2nd16.3%7×
  • 3rd23.3%10×
  • 4th23.3%10×

Riichi and callsbalance and outcome of hands with riichi or calls

  • Riichi income2,580
  • Riichi win rate45.2%
  • Riichi deal-in rate A14.3%
  • Riichi deal-in rate B11.1%
  • Riichi good-wait rate48.6%
  • Riichi draw rate19.7%
  • Call income539
  • Win rate after calling31.2%
  • Deal-in rate after calling10.9%
  • Tenpai rate after the first call32.9%

Income is the average points won or lost in those hands (riichi sticks and honba included).

Net efficiency and morecalculated as on Mahjong Soul Paifuya, per hand

  • Net efficiency852
  • Deal-in loss631
  • Average win turn12.43

Deal-in loss = deal-in rate × average deal-in; net efficiency = win rate × average win − deal-in loss. Win and deal-in values include honba and riichi sticks. Win turn is the number of tiles discarded at the table when the win came ÷ 4 + 1. Win efficiency (win rate × average win) is not shown: players with a high win rate win smaller hands, the two cancel out, and differences between players cannot be told apart from chance.

Skill estimateleague percentile of the estimates

  • Points per game0.7
  • Points per game, luck removed0.6
  • Average placement2.48

Luckfurther right is luckier; values are differences from the league average (the dealer tsumo rate is the rate itself)

  • Points from luck (/game)+2.3
  • Draw luck+0.7%
  • Starting hand (shanten)+0.04
  • Dora and red fives dealt+0.04
  • Ura-dora luck+0.01
  • Ippatsu rate-2.6%
  • Not being chased (/first riichi)-6.9%
  • Painful dealer tsumo rate10.6%

Where the points came fromchange in expected points, all stages

  • Own wins+51.4
  • Deal-ins-18.7
  • Others' tsumo-24.1
  • Ron between others-1.3
  • Draws-0.3
Change in expected points per game. Total +7.0pt/game (43 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins107+2209.6+51.4
Deal-ins59-804.6-18.7
Others' tsumo151-1036.7-24.1
Ron between others134-55.9-1.3
Draws101-11.2-0.3

Hand balance breakdownpoints won or lost per hand, all stages

CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi11.6%+1,033+924+109
Wins with calls6.5%+393+381+12
Dama wins1.3%+88+175-88
Deal-ins to riichi4.9%-409-361-48
Deal-ins to open hands4.7%-173-203+30
Deal-ins to dama1.1%-41-102+61
Others' tsumo27.4%-777-757-21
Other (draws etc.)42.6%-35-59+24
Total (per hand)+77
Every career number (estimate, 90% interval, weight of the record)
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.332.48 (2.36 to 2.61)8%7343 games
Points per game6.90.7 (-4.6 to 5.9)10%7143 games
Points per game, luck removed4.60.6 (-4.3 to 5.5)13%6543 games
1st-place rate37.2%25.4% (22.4% to 28.4%)3%8143 games
4th-place rate23.3%24.6% (18.6% to 30.6%)16%5943 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate19.4%19.8% (17.9% to 21.6%)34%40552 hands
Deal-in rate10.7%10.8% (9.4% to 12.3%)35%53552 hands
Riichi rate26.4%24.5% (22.4% to 26.7%)48%96552 hands
Call rate18.1%18.6% (15.8% to 21.4%)90%11552 hands
First riichi rate80.8%77.4% (73.7% to 81.1%)28%86146 riichi
Average riichi turn9.089.25 (8.96 to 9.54)34%75146 riichi
Average win value6,9836,719 (6,259 to 7,178)29%75107 wins
Average deal-in value5,3175,592 (5,124 to 6,059)16%7159 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,5141,480 (1,425 to 1,535)0%50552 hands
Deal-in loss593631 (537 to 724)21%61552 hands
Net efficiency921852 (681 to 1,024)16%69552 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)50.0%44.2% (38.6% to 49.8%)38%9094 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)24.8%25.2% (20.2% to 30.1%)53%46117 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call37.0%32.9% (27.1% to 38.6%)63%94100 first calls
Average win turn12.7312.43 (12.16 to 12.69)12%26107 wins
Tenpai rate at draws44.6%41.5% (36.3% to 46.7%)33%77101 draws
Staying in vs riichi13.2%14.0% (12.6% to 15.3%)7%44273 hands facing riichi
Efficiency match rate72.2%72.3% (71.0% to 73.6%)90%382,926 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)1.141.13 (1.05 to 1.21)83%732,789 discards
Breaking shape for value1.6%1.7% (1.4% to 2.1%)73%182,926 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.158.17 (8.04 to 8.30)10%59133 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate74.4%73.1% (68.1% to 78.1%)59%73133 tenpai hands
Dama rate6.5%9.1% (4.7% to 13.4%)64%9107 wins
Riichi income2,4262,580 (1,963 to 3,198)28%38146 riichi
Riichi win rate43.8%45.2% (40.4% to 49.9%)43%36146 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A14.4%14.3% (13.2% to 15.4%)2%46146 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B11.6%11.1% (9.4% to 12.7%)6%40146 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate46.6%48.6% (44.0% to 53.2%)37%32146 riichi
Riichi draw rate20.5%19.7% (16.1% to 23.4%)40%63146 riichi
Call income1,042539 (180 to 897)10%77100 calls
Win rate after calling36.0%31.2% (26.7% to 35.8%)23%86100 calls
Deal-in rate after calling9.0%10.9% (7.5% to 14.2%)27%77100 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)+0.04100552 hands
Dora and red fives dealt+0.0496552 hands
Draw luck+0.7%986,654 draws
Ura-dora luck+0.014264 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate-2.6%2064 riichi wins
Not being chased (/first riichi)-6.9%3118 first riichi
Painful dealer tsumo rate10.6%88151 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)+2.38843 games

By seasonRegular Season

2026-27 (2 games · skill estimate -0.3pt/game)

Style

  • Average win value6,601
  • Riichi rate22.9%
  • Deal-in rate11.1%
  • Win rate19.6%
  • First riichi rate76.5%
  • Average riichi turn9.35
  • Call rate19.4%
  • Tenpai rate at draws40.1%
  • Staying in vs riichi14.0%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)41.2%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)26.5%
  • Efficiency match rate73.2%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.18
  • Immediate riichi rate72.6%
  • Dama rate14.7%

* Hatched metrics have no league rank: too few games (10 in a season, 40 in a career). The values on the right are estimates pulled toward the league average as far as the data is thin.

Where the points came from

  • Own wins+13.3
  • Deal-ins-37.9
  • Others' tsumo-34.0
  • Ron between others-4.9
  • Draws+0.6
Change in expected points per game. Total -63.0pt/game (2 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins2+26.5+13.3
Deal-ins5-75.8-37.9
Others' tsumo13-68.1-34.0
Ron between others5-9.8-4.9
Draws7+1.1+0.6

Luck

  • Points from luck (/game)-11.3
  • Draw luck-0.2%
  • Starting hand (shanten)+0.39
  • Dora and red fives dealt+0.11
  • Ura-dora luck-0.42
  • Ippatsu rate-19.7%
  • Not being chased (/first riichi)+12.8%
  • Painful dealer tsumo rate0.0%

* Hatched metrics have no league rank: too few games (10 in a season, 40 in a career). The values on the right are estimates pulled toward the league average as far as the data is thin.

Every number for 2026-27
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement4.002.50 (2.35 to 2.65)0%—2 games
Points per game-63.9-0.3 (-6.9 to 6.3)0%—2 games
Points per game, luck removed-52.6-0.4 (-6.9 to 6.2)1%—2 games
1st-place rate0.0%25.0% (23.0% to 27.1%)0%—2 games
4th-place rate100.0%25.6% (17.1% to 34.1%)1%—2 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate6.3%19.6% (16.3% to 22.9%)3%—32 hands
Deal-in rate15.6%11.1% (8.4% to 13.7%)3%—32 hands
Riichi rate25.0%22.9% (18.4% to 27.3%)5%—32 hands
Call rate12.5%19.4% (11.3% to 27.4%)34%—32 hands
First riichi rate100.0%76.5% (70.4% to 82.7%)2%—8 riichi
Average riichi turn9.639.35 (8.83 to 9.88)3%—8 riichi
Average win value5,0006,601 (5,788 to 7,414)1%—2 wins
Average deal-in value6,6605,660 (5,022 to 6,297)2%—5 deal-ins
Win efficiency3531,480 (1,451 to 1,510)0%—32 hands
Deal-in loss1,097648 (507 to 789)2%—32 hands
Net efficiency-744822 (583 to 1,061)1%—32 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)66.7%41.2% (30.1% to 52.2%)2%—3 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)37.5%26.5% (16.0% to 36.9%)7%—8 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call75.0%28.9% (14.6% to 43.2%)6%—4 first calls
Average win turn11.5012.38 (12.10 to 12.67)0%—2 wins
Tenpai rate at draws42.9%40.1% (31.0% to 49.2%)3%—7 draws
Staying in vs riichi7.7%14.0% (12.4% to 15.6%)0%—13 hands facing riichi
Efficiency match rate73.9%73.2% (69.7% to 76.7%)37%—199 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)1.241.11 (0.90 to 1.32)24%—189 discards
Breaking shape for value1.0%1.9% (1.0% to 2.8%)15%—199 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.248.18 (8.01 to 8.34)0%—6 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate93.2%72.6% (60.9% to 84.4%)6%—6 tenpai hands
Dama rate50.0%14.7% (2.8% to 26.6%)3%—2 wins
Riichi income-1,1872,560 (1,532 to 3,589)2%—8 riichi
Riichi win rate12.5%44.8% (35.4% to 54.3%)4%—8 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A12.5%14.3% (13.7% to 15.0%)0%—8 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B12.5%11.1% (9.1% to 13.0%)0%—8 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate37.5%49.4% (40.8% to 58.1%)3%—8 riichi
Riichi draw rate25.0%19.4% (12.2% to 26.5%)4%—8 riichi
Call income-3,025470 (11.27 to 929)0%—4 calls
Win rate after calling0.0%29.4% (22.2% to 36.7%)1%—4 calls
Deal-in rate after calling25.0%11.8% (6.2% to 17.3%)1%—4 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)+0.39—32 hands
Dora and red fives dealt+0.11—32 hands
Draw luck-0.2%—382 draws
Ura-dora luck-0.42—1 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate-19.7%—1 riichi wins
Not being chased (/first riichi)+12.8%—8 first riichi
Painful dealer tsumo rate0.0%—13 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)-11.3—2 games
Hand balance breakdown
CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi3.1%+63+924-861
Wins with calls0.0%0+381-381
Dama wins3.1%+291+175+115
Deal-ins to riichi9.4%-919-361-558
Deal-ins to open hands6.3%-209-203-6
Deal-ins to dama0.0%0-102+102
Others' tsumo40.6%-950-757-193
Other (draws etc.)37.5%-78-59-19
Total (per hand)-1,803
2025-26 (34 games · skill estimate 1.1pt/game)

Style

  • Average win value6,696
  • Riichi rate24.6%
  • Deal-in rate11.0%
  • Win rate20.5%
  • First riichi rate77.0%
  • Average riichi turn9.25
  • Call rate19.1%
  • Tenpai rate at draws41.7%
  • Staying in vs riichi14.1%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)43.4%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)25.3%
  • Efficiency match rate72.4%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.18
  • Immediate riichi rate73.7%
  • Dama rate8.6%

Where the points came from

  • Own wins+56.2
  • Deal-ins-18.2
  • Others' tsumo-21.6
  • Ron between others-1.3
  • Draws-0.4
Change in expected points per game. Total +14.7pt/game (34 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins92+1910.0+56.2
Deal-ins47-620.3-18.2
Others' tsumo107-735.4-21.6
Ron between others106-42.8-1.3
Draws73-12.3-0.4

Luck

  • Points from luck (/game)+5.7
  • Draw luck+0.6%
  • Starting hand (shanten)+0.01
  • Dora and red fives dealt+0.01
  • Ura-dora luck-0.00
  • Ippatsu rate-0.4%
  • Not being chased (/first riichi)-6.9%
  • Painful dealer tsumo rate11.2%
Every number for 2025-26
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.122.47 (2.35 to 2.60)7%9734 games
Points per game14.81.1 (-4.3 to 6.6)8%9734 games
Points per game, luck removed9.10.9 (-4.2 to 6.1)10%9034 games
1st-place rate41.2%25.4% (22.3% to 28.5%)2%9734 games
4th-place rate14.7%23.5% (17.2% to 29.9%)13%9534 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate21.6%20.5% (18.4% to 22.5%)28%70425 hands
Deal-in rate11.1%11.0% (9.4% to 12.5%)29%59425 hands
Riichi rate27.3%24.6% (22.3% to 27.0%)42%90425 hands
Call rate18.6%19.1% (16.0% to 22.3%)87%9425 hands
First riichi rate80.2%77.0% (73.0% to 81.0%)24%92116 riichi
Average riichi turn9.009.25 (8.93 to 9.56)29%82116 riichi
Average win value6,9386,696 (6,212 to 7,180)26%7792 wins
Average deal-in value5,1005,572 (5,080 to 6,064)13%7747 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,6811,480 (1,425 to 1,536)0%50425 hands
Deal-in loss585631 (531 to 732)17%70425 hands
Net efficiency1,096872 (690 to 1,054)13%95425 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)49.3%43.4% (37.3% to 49.6%)32%8673 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)25.0%25.3% (20.0% to 30.7%)47%4492 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call32.9%29.9% (23.6% to 36.1%)58%9579 first calls
Average win turn12.7912.43 (12.16 to 12.70)10%1192 wins
Tenpai rate at draws46.6%41.7% (35.8% to 47.6%)26%7773 draws
Staying in vs riichi15.0%14.1% (12.6% to 15.5%)5%72213 hands facing riichi
Efficiency match rate72.4%72.4% (71.0% to 73.9%)87%192,225 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)1.131.12 (1.03 to 1.21)78%852,121 discards
Breaking shape for value1.6%1.7% (1.3% to 2.1%)67%212,225 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.198.18 (8.04 to 8.31)8%72106 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate75.7%73.7% (68.3% to 79.0%)53%77106 tenpai hands
Dama rate5.4%8.6% (4.0% to 13.3%)61%992 wins
Riichi income3,0532,738 (2,071 to 3,405)24%75116 riichi
Riichi win rate49.1%47.3% (42.2% to 52.4%)37%62116 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A14.7%14.3% (13.2% to 15.5%)1%54116 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B12.1%11.1% (9.4% to 12.8%)5%37116 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate44.8%48.2% (43.2% to 53.2%)32%21116 riichi
Riichi draw rate19.0%19.1% (15.1% to 23.1%)35%77116 riichi
Call income1,152537 (165 to 909)8%8579 calls
Win rate after calling38.0%31.4% (26.5% to 36.3%)19%8779 calls
Deal-in rate after calling8.9%10.9% (7.4% to 14.5%)23%8079 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)+0.0154425 hands
Dora and red fives dealt+0.0175425 hands
Draw luck+0.6%775,115 draws
Ura-dora luck-0.003757 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate-0.4%5457 riichi wins
Not being chased (/first riichi)-6.9%993 first riichi
Painful dealer tsumo rate11.2%63107 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)+5.79534 games
Hand balance breakdown
CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi13.4%+1,197+924+274
Wins with calls7.1%+410+381+29
Dama wins1.2%+73+175-102
Deal-ins to riichi4.7%-384-361-23
Deal-ins to open hands5.2%-187-203+16
Deal-ins to dama1.2%-47-102+55
Others' tsumo25.2%-718-757+39
Other (draws etc.)42.1%-31-59+29
Total (per hand)+314

Players with a similar styleclosest career style metrics first

  1. Date ArisaKONAMI Mahjong Fight ClubIn common: Riichis a lot
  2. Matsumoto YoshihiroShibuya ABEMAS
  3. Kayamori SayakaSEGA SAMMY Phoenix

* Twelve style metrics, including call rate, riichi rate, win rate, deal-in rate, hand value, riichi speed and immediate riichi rate, are put on the same scale and compared; the players closest overall are listed. Metrics the data can vouch for weigh more. It shows only how close the styles are, not which is better. The differences are often slight, and the order could change.