Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.
Player · 245 career games · 2018-19–2026-27
Masato Hagiwara
Builds closed hands and fights with riichi. Stands out for a lowish win rate, chasing riichi and late riichi. Career record: -11.6pt per game. Even allowing for luck it is below average, with skill estimated at around -7.5pt.
Closed-hand oriented
Actual / game
-11.6
245 career games
Skill estimate / game
-7.5
90% interval -11.3 to -3.6
Estimate, luck removed
-5.7
adjusted for starting hands, draws, ura-dora
Weight of the record
64%
share of the estimate from the record
Styleleague percentile, career
Average win value626,652
Riichi rate7223.4%
Deal-in rate1711.4%
Win rate117.8%
First riichi rate374.0%
Average riichi turn39.64
Call rate717.0%
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws1337.3%
Staying in vs riichi513.3%
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)5841.4%
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)9832.0%
Tile efficiency match rate1370.6%
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)968.22
Immediate riichi rate1568.1%
Dama rate7015.3%
Color only for metrics with a good side (red = good, blue = bad). Metrics of style, such as riichi rate, call rate and tile efficiency match rate, are gray. For tenpai turn, further right means later (a larger turn number). Values are estimates.
Placements245 career games, average placement 2.77
Average placement2.77
1st15.9%39×
2nd24.9%61×
3rd25.3%62×
4th33.9%83×
Riichi and callsbalance and outcome of hands with riichi or calls
Riichi income52,199
Riichi win rate542.6%
Riichi deal-in rate A914.6%
Riichi deal-in rate B911.6%
Riichi good-wait rate547.1%
Riichi exhaustive draw rate3318.5%
Call income15387
Win rate after calling2928.8%
Deal-in rate after calling1112.7%
Tenpai rate after the first call9431.5%
Income is the average points won or lost in those hands (riichi sticks and honba included).
Net efficiency and morecalculated as on Mahjong Soul Paifuya, per hand
Net efficiency1713
Deal-in loss33649
Average win turn6412.37
Deal-in loss = deal-in rate × average deal-in; net efficiency = win rate × average win − deal-in loss. Win and deal-in values include honba and riichi sticks. Win turn is the number of tiles discarded at the table when the win came ÷ 4 + 1. Win efficiency (win rate × average win) is not shown: players with a high win rate win smaller hands, the two cancel out, and differences between players cannot be told apart from chance.
Skill estimateleague percentile of the estimates
Points per game1-7.5
Points per game, luck removed1-5.7
Average placement12.67
Luckfurther right is luckier; values are differences from the league average (the dealer tsumo rate is the rate itself)
Points from luck (/game)7-3.7
Draw luck64+0.1%
Starting hand (shanten)45-0.00
Dora and red fives dealt62+0.01
Ura-dora luck68+0.04
Ippatsu rate64+0.4%
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)17-2.9%
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate1314.1%
Where the points came fromchange in expected points, all stages
Own wins+41.8
Deal-ins-21.2
Others' tsumo-28.5
Ron between others-2.6
Exhaustive draws-1.1
Change in expected points per game. Total -11.6pt/game (245 games).As a table
Hand result
Hands
Total
Per game
Own wins
515
+10238.0
+41.8
Deal-ins
346
-5188.3
-21.2
Others' tsumo
896
-6991.6
-28.5
Ron between others
624
-630.3
-2.6
Exhaustive draws
605
-281.0
-1.1
Hand balance breakdownpoints won or lost per hand, all stages
Category
Frequency
Balance per hand
League average
Difference
Wins with riichi
9.8%
+861
+919
-58
Wins with calls
4.8%
+273
+382
-109
Dama wins
2.7%
+154
+173
-19
Deal-ins to riichi
5.1%
-362
-360
-2
Deal-ins to open hands
4.2%
-196
-203
+7
Deal-ins to dama
2.3%
-128
-101
-27
Others' tsumo
30.0%
-871
-752
-118
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)
41.2%
-83
-60
-23
Total (per hand)
-351
Every career number (estimate, 90% interval, weight of the record)
Results
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Average placement
2.77
2.67 (2.58 to 2.76)
63%
1
245 games
Points per game
-11.6
-7.5 (-11.3 to -3.6)
64%
1
245 games
Points per game, luck removed
-7.9
-5.7 (-9.1 to -2.3)
71%
1
245 games
1st-place rate
15.9%
19.1% (15.3% to 22.8%)
66%
1
245 games
4th-place rate
33.9%
30.9% (27.2% to 34.7%)
67%
1
245 games
Style
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Win rate
17.2%
17.8% (16.7% to 18.9%)
79%
1
2,986 hands
Deal-in rate
11.6%
11.4% (10.6% to 12.2%)
76%
17
2,986 hands
Riichi rate
23.5%
23.4% (22.2% to 24.5%)
80%
72
2,986 hands
Call rate
16.8%
17.0% (15.7% to 18.2%)
98%
7
2,986 hands
First riichi rate
72.7%
74.0% (71.9% to 76.1%)
61%
3
702 riichi
Average riichi turn
9.71
9.64 (9.46 to 9.82)
80%
3
702 riichi
Average win value
6,682
6,652 (6,381 to 6,923)
68%
62
515 wins
Average deal-in value
5,429
5,520 (5,256 to 5,784)
54%
80
346 deal-ins
Win efficiency
1,288
1,426 (1,359 to 1,494)
26%
1
2,986 hands
Deal-in loss
657
649 (597 to 701)
57%
33
2,986 hands
Net efficiency
631
713 (607 to 818)
60%
1
2,986 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)
41.6%
41.4% (38.4% to 44.4%)
75%
58
551 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)
32.8%
32.0% (29.4% to 34.5%)
88%
98
689 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call
32.2%
31.5% (28.5% to 34.5%)
89%
94
503 first calls
Average win turn
12.33
12.37 (12.26 to 12.49)
11%
64
515 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws
36.5%
37.3% (34.4% to 40.2%)
77%
13
605 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi
12.4%
13.3% (12.3% to 14.3%)
44%
5
1,595 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate
70.5%
70.6% (70.0% to 71.2%)
98%
13
15,921 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)
1.17
1.17 (1.13 to 1.20)
96%
84
15,388 discards
Breaking shape for value
1.8%
1.8% (1.7% to 2.0%)
94%
25
15,921 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)
8.35
8.22 (8.14 to 8.30)
29%
96
659 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate
67.5%
68.1% (65.5% to 70.8%)
86%
15
659 tenpai hands
Dama rate
15.5%
15.3% (13.0% to 17.6%)
89%
70
515 wins
Riichi income
1,974
2,199 (1,838 to 2,559)
65%
5
702 riichi
Riichi win rate
41.7%
42.6% (39.8% to 45.4%)
80%
5
702 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A
15.7%
14.6% (13.3% to 15.9%)
21%
9
702 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B
12.3%
11.6% (10.2% to 12.9%)
43%
9
702 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate
46.0%
47.1% (44.5% to 49.7%)
70%
5
702 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate
18.2%
18.5% (16.4% to 20.6%)
74%
33
702 riichi
Call income
268
387 (143 to 630)
46%
15
503 calls
Win rate after calling
28.2%
28.8% (26.0% to 31.5%)
66%
29
503 calls
Deal-in rate after calling
13.3%
12.7% (10.8% to 14.6%)
66%
11
503 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
Metric
Actual
Percentile
Count
Starting hand (shanten)
-0.00
45
2,986 hands
Dora and red fives dealt
+0.01
62
2,986 hands
Draw luck
+0.1%
64
36,650 tile draws
Ura-dora luck
+0.04
68
293 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate
+0.4%
64
293 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)
-2.9%
17
510 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate
14.1%
13
896 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)
-3.7
7
245 games
By seasonRegular Season
2026-27 (11 games · skill estimate -3.7pt/game)
Style
Average win value496,545
Riichi rate6323.0%
Deal-in rate411.7%
Win rate118.4%
First riichi rate675.2%
Average riichi turn209.40
Call rate417.5%
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws4139.9%
Staying in vs riichi613.9%
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)5241.2%
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)10032.0%
Tile efficiency match rate4973.8%
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)958.17
Immediate riichi rate7773.0%
Dama rate3811.2%
Where the points came from
Own wins+16.0
Deal-ins-30.5
Others' tsumo-30.0
Ron between others-3.2
Exhaustive draws-1.9
Change in expected points per game. Total -49.7pt/game (11 games).As a table
Hand result
Hands
Total
Per game
Own wins
12
+176.4
+16.0
Deal-ins
23
-335.9
-30.5
Others' tsumo
42
-330.2
-30.0
Ron between others
30
-35.7
-3.2
Exhaustive draws
28
-20.8
-1.9
Luck
Points from luck (/game)1-19.8
Draw luck4-1.2%
Starting hand (shanten)55+0.01
Dora and red fives dealt57+0.01
Ura-dora luck84+0.28
Ippatsu rate1-19.7%
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)37-3.2%
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate1219.0%
Every number for 2026-27
Results
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Average placement
3.82
2.59 (2.36 to 2.82)
7%
1
11 games
Points per game
-50.0
-3.7 (-13.2 to 5.7)
8%
1
11 games
Points per game, luck removed
-30.1
-3.0 (-12.0 to 5.9)
10%
1
11 games
1st-place rate
0.0%
23.1% (13.8% to 32.3%)
8%
5
11 games
4th-place rate
81.8%
29.7% (20.2% to 39.1%)
8%
1
11 games
Style
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Win rate
8.9%
18.4% (15.3% to 21.4%)
15%
1
135 hands
Deal-in rate
17.0%
11.7% (9.4% to 13.9%)
13%
4
135 hands
Riichi rate
24.4%
23.0% (19.8% to 26.2%)
15%
63
135 hands
Call rate
14.8%
17.5% (12.6% to 22.4%)
67%
4
135 hands
First riichi rate
63.6%
75.2% (70.2% to 80.1%)
7%
6
33 riichi
Average riichi turn
9.76
9.40 (8.89 to 9.92)
16%
20
33 riichi
Average win value
5,617
6,545 (5,798 to 7,293)
5%
49
12 wins
Average deal-in value
5,583
5,623 (5,055 to 6,190)
7%
41
23 deal-ins
Win efficiency
574
1,460 (1,350 to 1,570)
2%
1
135 hands
Deal-in loss
973
657 (538 to 777)
6%
1
135 hands
Net efficiency
-399
757 (507 to 1,007)
6%
1
135 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)
43.3%
41.2% (33.4% to 49.0%)
14%
52
30 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)
46.3%
32.0% (24.8% to 39.3%)
31%
100
41 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call
35.0%
27.9% (18.0% to 37.8%)
24%
81
20 first calls
Average win turn
12.77
12.38 (12.24 to 12.52)
0%
36
12 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws
39.3%
39.9% (32.0% to 47.9%)
14%
41
28 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi
9.2%
13.9% (11.8% to 15.9%)
4%
6
87 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate
74.2%
73.8% (71.4% to 76.1%)
66%
49
644 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)
1.07
1.07 (0.93 to 1.20)
51%
65
624 discards
Breaking shape for value
2.2%
2.1% (1.5% to 2.7%)
40%
65
644 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)
8.58
8.17 (8.04 to 8.31)
2%
95
26 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate
78.7%
73.0% (64.6% to 81.3%)
19%
77
26 tenpai hands
Dama rate
0.0%
11.2% (2.3% to 20.1%)
16%
38
12 wins
Riichi income
-524
2,366 (1,476 to 3,256)
8%
1
33 riichi
Riichi win rate
27.3%
43.0% (35.2% to 50.9%)
16%
6
33 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A
27.3%
14.5% (12.5% to 16.5%)
1%
6
33 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B
21.2%
11.4% (8.6% to 14.2%)
3%
6
33 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate
48.5%
49.6% (42.9% to 56.3%)
10%
41
33 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate
27.3%
20.2% (14.6% to 25.9%)
12%
76
33 riichi
Call income
-1,420
425 (-91.13 to 940)
3%
9
20 calls
Win rate after calling
15.0%
28.7% (21.7% to 35.7%)
7%
17
20 calls
Deal-in rate after calling
20.0%
12.1% (7.2% to 17.0%)
7%
17
20 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
Metric
Actual
Percentile
Count
Starting hand (shanten)
+0.01
55
135 hands
Dora and red fives dealt
+0.01
57
135 hands
Draw luck
-1.2%
4
1,622 tile draws
Ura-dora luck
+0.28
84
9 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate
-19.7%
1
9 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)
-3.2%
37
21 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate
19.0%
12
42 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)
-19.8
1
11 games
Hand balance breakdown
Category
Frequency
Balance per hand
League average
Difference
Wins with riichi
6.7%
+454
+919
-465
Wins with calls
2.2%
+120
+382
-262
Dama wins
0.0%
0
+173
-173
Deal-ins to riichi
8.9%
-613
-360
-253
Deal-ins to open hands
5.9%
-250
-203
-47
Deal-ins to dama
2.2%
-161
-101
-61
Others' tsumo
31.1%
-960
-752
-208
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)
43.0%
-104
-60
-44
Total (per hand)
-1,515
2025-26 (30 games · skill estimate -0.9pt/game)
Style
Average win value706,615
Riichi rate621.2%
Deal-in rate6210.9%
Win rate418.9%
First riichi rate5275.8%
Average riichi turn149.46
Call rate7226.5%
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws4239.9%
Staying in vs riichi5714.1%
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)3740.1%
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)10033.3%
Tile efficiency match rate970.0%
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)708.17
Immediate riichi rate666.8%
Dama rate10016.8%
Where the points came from
Own wins+44.8
Deal-ins-18.0
Others' tsumo-30.4
Ron between others-0.1
Exhaustive draws-1.1
Change in expected points per game. Total -4.8pt/game (30 games).As a table
Hand result
Hands
Total
Per game
Own wins
65
+1344.3
+44.8
Deal-ins
43
-538.6
-18.0
Others' tsumo
121
-912.6
-30.4
Ron between others
84
-4.2
-0.1
Exhaustive draws
78
-33.1
-1.1
Luck
Points from luck (/game)6-8.2
Draw luck29-0.3%
Starting hand (shanten)64+0.02
Dora and red fives dealt87+0.04
Ura-dora luck29-0.04
Ippatsu rate37-3.1%
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)54-1.1%
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate859.9%
Every number for 2025-26
Results
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Average placement
2.60
2.51 (2.33 to 2.70)
17%
39
30 games
Points per game
-4.9
-0.9 (-8.6 to 6.8)
18%
31
30 games
Points per game, luck removed
3.3
0.8 (-6.2 to 7.8)
23%
70
30 games
1st-place rate
30.0%
26.0% (18.5% to 33.5%)
19%
67
30 games
4th-place rate
26.7%
25.3% (17.7% to 32.9%)
20%
44
30 games
Style
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Win rate
16.6%
18.9% (16.7% to 21.1%)
33%
4
391 hands
Deal-in rate
11.0%
10.9% (9.3% to 12.6%)
29%
62
391 hands
Riichi rate
18.2%
21.2% (18.8% to 23.5%)
35%
6
391 hands
Call rate
27.1%
26.5% (23.3% to 29.8%)
86%
72
391 hands
First riichi rate
74.6%
75.8% (71.5% to 80.2%)
14%
52
71 riichi
Average riichi turn
9.75
9.46 (9.05 to 9.86)
29%
14
71 riichi
Average win value
6,708
6,615 (6,068 to 7,161)
21%
70
65 wins
Average deal-in value
4,872
5,530 (5,021 to 6,039)
13%
87
43 deal-ins
Win efficiency
1,263
1,465 (1,364 to 1,566)
4%
11
391 hands
Deal-in loss
574
629 (530 to 729)
15%
75
391 hands
Net efficiency
689
811 (606 to 1,017)
16%
29
391 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)
38.4%
40.1% (34.1% to 46.2%)
29%
37
73 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)
41.7%
33.3% (27.7% to 39.0%)
48%
100
84 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call
26.4%
26.1% (20.5% to 31.7%)
63%
64
106 first calls
Average win turn
12.63
12.38 (12.24 to 12.53)
2%
19
65 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws
39.7%
39.9% (34.1% to 45.8%)
30%
42
78 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi
14.2%
14.1% (12.3% to 15.9%)
10%
57
218 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate
69.6%
70.0% (68.5% to 71.6%)
86%
9
2,025 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)
1.18
1.15 (1.06 to 1.24)
77%
95
1,951 discards
Breaking shape for value
1.8%
1.9% (1.4% to 2.3%)
68%
44
2,025 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)
8.17
8.17 (8.04 to 8.30)
4%
70
71 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate
59.2%
66.8% (60.8% to 72.8%)
39%
6
71 tenpai hands
Dama rate
20.0%
16.8% (11.6% to 21.9%)
51%
100
65 wins
Riichi income
2,697
2,635 (1,870 to 3,400)
16%
47
71 riichi
Riichi win rate
42.3%
44.9% (38.7% to 51.1%)
29%
24
71 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A
14.1%
14.3% (12.4% to 16.2%)
3%
64
71 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B
9.9%
11.0% (8.4% to 13.5%)
7%
62
71 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate
54.9%
50.7% (45.1% to 56.4%)
19%
72
71 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate
19.7%
19.4% (14.7% to 24.0%)
23%
82
71 riichi
Call income
-189
384 (-18.81 to 788)
15%
14
106 calls
Win rate after calling
20.8%
27.2% (22.5% to 31.8%)
29%
1
106 calls
Deal-in rate after calling
14.2%
12.3% (9.0% to 15.6%)
29%
24
106 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
Metric
Actual
Percentile
Count
Starting hand (shanten)
+0.02
64
391 hands
Dora and red fives dealt
+0.04
87
391 hands
Draw luck
-0.3%
29
4,698 tile draws
Ura-dora luck
-0.04
29
30 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate
-3.1%
37
30 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)
-1.1%
54
53 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate
9.9%
85
121 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)
-8.2
6
30 games
Hand balance breakdown
Category
Frequency
Balance per hand
League average
Difference
Wins with riichi
7.7%
+697
+919
-222
Wins with calls
5.6%
+354
+382
-29
Dama wins
3.3%
+213
+173
+40
Deal-ins to riichi
5.9%
-406
-360
-46
Deal-ins to open hands
4.3%
-147
-203
+57
Deal-ins to dama
0.8%
-40
-101
+61
Others' tsumo
30.9%
-897
-752
-144
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)
41.4%
-74
-60
-14
Total (per hand)
-300
2024-25 (24 games · skill estimate -0.6pt/game)
Style
Average win value946,694
Riichi rate5222.9%
Deal-in rate4311.1%
Win rate2419.6%
First riichi rate173.7%
Average riichi turn19.57
Call rate3522.6%
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws3239.8%
Staying in vs riichi9714.5%
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)938.7%
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)8628.9%
Tile efficiency match rate771.1%
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)1008.18
Immediate riichi rate1568.7%
Dama rate4911.7%
Where the points came from
Own wins+51.4
Deal-ins-22.2
Others' tsumo-28.7
Ron between others-4.5
Exhaustive draws-0.1
Change in expected points per game. Total -4.1pt/game (24 games).As a table
Hand result
Hands
Total
Per game
Own wins
60
+1233.8
+51.4
Deal-ins
37
-532.7
-22.2
Others' tsumo
92
-689.7
-28.7
Ron between others
71
-107.8
-4.5
Exhaustive draws
59
-2.8
-0.1
Luck
Points from luck (/game)35-2.3
Draw luck80+0.5%
Starting hand (shanten)26-0.04
Dora and red fives dealt72+0.01
Ura-dora luck41-0.03
Ippatsu rate97+9.3%
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)12-8.7%
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate928.7%
Every number for 2024-25
Results
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Average placement
2.50
2.50 (2.30 to 2.70)
14%
46
24 games
Points per game
-4.0
-0.6 (-8.7 to 7.5)
15%
35
24 games
Points per game, luck removed
-1.7
-0.3 (-7.8 to 7.1)
20%
46
24 games
1st-place rate
12.5%
23.1% (15.1% to 31.0%)
16%
14
24 games
4th-place rate
20.8%
24.2% (16.2% to 32.3%)
17%
60
24 games
Style
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Win rate
18.8%
19.6% (17.3% to 22.0%)
29%
24
319 hands
Deal-in rate
11.6%
11.1% (9.3% to 12.9%)
25%
43
319 hands
Riichi rate
23.2%
22.9% (20.4% to 25.4%)
30%
52
319 hands
Call rate
22.6%
22.6% (19.1% to 26.2%)
83%
35
319 hands
First riichi rate
59.5%
73.7% (69.4% to 78.0%)
14%
1
74 riichi
Average riichi turn
10.11
9.57 (9.17 to 9.97)
30%
1
74 riichi
Average win value
7,122
6,694 (6,135 to 7,253)
20%
94
60 wins
Average deal-in value
5,400
5,601 (5,076 to 6,125)
11%
43
37 deal-ins
Win efficiency
1,525
1,476 (1,373 to 1,579)
4%
63
319 hands
Deal-in loss
653
641 (536 to 745)
12%
35
319 hands
Net efficiency
872
840 (625 to 1,056)
14%
49
319 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)
30.6%
38.7% (31.8% to 45.5%)
21%
9
49 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)
32.9%
28.9% (23.1% to 34.7%)
46%
86
76 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call
26.4%
26.0% (19.7% to 32.4%)
54%
66
72 first calls
Average win turn
12.58
12.38 (12.23 to 12.53)
1%
15
60 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws
39.0%
39.8% (33.3% to 46.2%)
25%
32
59 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi
18.8%
14.5% (12.6% to 16.3%)
8%
97
186 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate
70.8%
71.1% (69.5% to 72.8%)
84%
7
1,712 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)
1.13
1.11 (1.01 to 1.21)
74%
83
1,657 discards
Breaking shape for value
1.5%
1.7% (1.2% to 2.1%)
64%
24
1,712 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)
8.51
8.18 (8.05 to 8.31)
4%
100
64 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate
63.5%
68.7% (62.5% to 74.8%)
36%
15
64 tenpai hands
Dama rate
10.0%
11.7% (6.4% to 16.9%)
49%
49
60 wins
Riichi income
2,381
2,583 (1,825 to 3,340)
17%
46
74 riichi
Riichi win rate
41.9%
44.8% (38.7% to 50.9%)
30%
29
74 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A
18.9%
14.4% (12.6% to 16.3%)
3%
24
74 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B
12.2%
11.1% (8.6% to 13.7%)
8%
43
74 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate
50.0%
49.8% (44.2% to 55.4%)
20%
60
74 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate
17.6%
18.9% (14.3% to 23.5%)
23%
46
74 riichi
Call income
647
504 (66.47 to 941)
11%
66
72 calls
Win rate after calling
31.9%
30.3% (25.0% to 35.6%)
22%
58
72 calls
Deal-in rate after calling
12.5%
11.7% (8.0% to 15.4%)
22%
43
72 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
Metric
Actual
Percentile
Count
Starting hand (shanten)
-0.04
26
319 hands
Dora and red fives dealt
+0.01
72
319 hands
Draw luck
+0.5%
80
3,848 tile draws
Ura-dora luck
-0.03
41
31 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate
+9.3%
97
31 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)
-8.7%
12
44 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate
8.7%
92
92 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)
-2.3
35
24 games
Hand balance breakdown
Category
Frequency
Balance per hand
League average
Difference
Wins with riichi
9.7%
+908
+919
-10
Wins with calls
7.2%
+428
+382
+46
Dama wins
1.9%
+189
+173
+16
Deal-ins to riichi
4.4%
-259
-360
+101
Deal-ins to open hands
4.4%
-209
-203
-6
Deal-ins to dama
2.8%
-213
-101
-112
Others' tsumo
28.8%
-794
-752
-41
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)
40.8%
-100
-60
-41
Total (per hand)
-50
2023-24 (25 games · skill estimate -0.5pt/game)
Style
Average win value756,669
Riichi rate4322.8%
Deal-in rate6010.8%
Win rate719.4%
First riichi rate8376.5%
Average riichi turn759.25
Call rate1820.2%
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws1838.7%
Staying in vs riichi413.8%
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)9243.0%
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)9731.9%
Tile efficiency match rate1270.8%
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)298.16
Immediate riichi rate2969.7%
Dama rate6013.5%
Where the points came from
Own wins+41.9
Deal-ins-17.5
Others' tsumo-25.3
Ron between others-2.6
Exhaustive draws-0.3
Change in expected points per game. Total -3.6pt/game (25 games).As a table
Hand result
Hands
Total
Per game
Own wins
51
+1048.4
+41.9
Deal-ins
30
-436.6
-17.5
Others' tsumo
89
-631.7
-25.3
Ron between others
67
-64.0
-2.6
Exhaustive draws
50
-7.3
-0.3
Luck
Points from luck (/game)7-7.6
Draw luck21-0.8%
Starting hand (shanten)55+0.03
Dora and red fives dealt32-0.03
Ura-dora luck58+0.03
Ippatsu rate4-12.0%
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)7-8.6%
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate4611.2%
Every number for 2023-24
Results
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Average placement
2.52
2.50 (2.30 to 2.70)
15%
55
25 games
Points per game
-3.4
-0.5 (-8.6 to 7.5)
16%
41
25 games
Points per game, luck removed
4.2
0.9 (-6.5 to 8.3)
20%
66
25 games
1st-place rate
20.0%
24.2% (16.4% to 32.1%)
16%
38
25 games
4th-place rate
20.0%
24.1% (16.1% to 32.0%)
17%
73
25 games
Style
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Win rate
17.8%
19.4% (17.0% to 21.8%)
27%
7
287 hands
Deal-in rate
10.5%
10.8% (9.0% to 12.7%)
23%
60
287 hands
Riichi rate
23.0%
22.8% (20.2% to 25.4%)
28%
43
287 hands
Call rate
19.5%
20.2% (16.5% to 23.8%)
81%
18
287 hands
First riichi rate
80.3%
76.5% (72.1% to 81.0%)
13%
83
66 riichi
Average riichi turn
9.05
9.25 (8.84 to 9.67)
28%
75
66 riichi
Average win value
7,051
6,669 (6,085 to 7,253)
17%
75
51 wins
Average deal-in value
5,667
5,630 (5,085 to 6,174)
9%
46
30 deal-ins
Win efficiency
1,383
1,471 (1,367 to 1,576)
3%
18
287 hands
Deal-in loss
607
635 (529 to 742)
11%
66
287 hands
Net efficiency
776
828 (607 to 1,048)
13%
35
287 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)
51.0%
43.0% (36.1% to 49.9%)
21%
92
49 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)
42.6%
31.9% (25.3% to 38.5%)
37%
97
54 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call
30.4%
27.9% (21.0% to 34.8%)
48%
77
56 first calls
Average win turn
12.43
12.38 (12.23 to 12.53)
1%
43
51 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws
34.0%
38.7% (31.9% to 45.5%)
22%
18
50 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi
9.5%
13.8% (11.8% to 15.7%)
7%
4
148 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate
70.3%
70.8% (69.1% to 72.5%)
82%
12
1,512 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)
1.26
1.20 (1.10 to 1.31)
71%
94
1,467 discards
Breaking shape for value
1.2%
1.5% (1.0% to 2.0%)
61%
7
1,512 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)
8.03
8.16 (8.03 to 8.29)
4%
29
66 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate
66.3%
69.7% (63.6% to 75.8%)
37%
29
66 tenpai hands
Dama rate
13.7%
13.5% (8.0% to 19.1%)
45%
60
51 wins
Riichi income
1,577
2,465 (1,686 to 3,244)
15%
9
66 riichi
Riichi win rate
39.4%
44.2% (37.8% to 50.6%)
27%
7
66 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A
16.7%
14.4% (12.5% to 16.3%)
2%
21
66 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B
15.2%
11.3% (8.7% to 13.9%)
7%
15
66 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate
34.8%
47.1% (41.3% to 52.8%)
18%
1
66 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate
13.6%
18.1% (13.3% to 22.8%)
21%
15
66 riichi
Call income
1,048
535 (78.06 to 992)
9%
83
56 calls
Win rate after calling
32.1%
30.2% (24.5% to 35.9%)
18%
72
56 calls
Deal-in rate after calling
7.1%
10.7% (6.7% to 14.7%)
18%
89
56 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
Metric
Actual
Percentile
Count
Starting hand (shanten)
+0.03
55
287 hands
Dora and red fives dealt
-0.03
32
287 hands
Draw luck
-0.8%
21
3,418 tile draws
Ura-dora luck
+0.03
58
26 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate
-12.0%
4
26 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)
-8.6%
7
53 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate
11.2%
46
89 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)
-7.6
7
25 games
Hand balance breakdown
Category
Frequency
Balance per hand
League average
Difference
Wins with riichi
9.1%
+870
+919
-49
Wins with calls
6.3%
+346
+382
-36
Dama wins
2.4%
+167
+173
-6
Deal-ins to riichi
5.2%
-404
-360
-44
Deal-ins to open hands
3.8%
-170
-203
+33
Deal-ins to dama
1.4%
-68
-101
+33
Others' tsumo
31.0%
-853
-752
-101
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)
40.8%
-59
-60
+0
Total (per hand)
-171
2022-23 (19 games · skill estimate -2.0pt/game)
Style
Average win value336,575
Riichi rate6822.9%
Deal-in rate3011.1%
Win rate1419.0%
First riichi rate9076.7%
Average riichi turn119.52
Call rate415.0%
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws2038.4%
Staying in vs riichi113.8%
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)4639.7%
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)9729.0%
Tile efficiency match rate6873.5%
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)908.18
Immediate riichi rate8173.7%
Dama rate8116.3%
Where the points came from
Own wins+39.5
Deal-ins-26.2
Others' tsumo-28.2
Ron between others-0.5
Exhaustive draws-0.9
Change in expected points per game. Total -16.3pt/game (19 games).As a table
Hand result
Hands
Total
Per game
Own wins
38
+750.1
+39.5
Deal-ins
28
-498.3
-26.2
Others' tsumo
71
-535.7
-28.2
Ron between others
48
-9.8
-0.5
Exhaustive draws
57
-16.2
-0.9
Luck
Points from luck (/game)17-6.7
Draw luck43-0.2%
Starting hand (shanten)4-0.06
Dora and red fives dealt49+0.02
Ura-dora luck1-0.28
Ippatsu rate76+5.3%
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)62+1.9%
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate908.5%
Every number for 2022-23
Results
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Average placement
2.84
2.54 (2.33 to 2.75)
12%
4
19 games
Points per game
-16.1
-2.0 (-10.6 to 6.6)
12%
7
19 games
Points per game, luck removed
-9.4
-1.5 (-9.5 to 6.4)
16%
11
19 games
1st-place rate
15.8%
23.9% (15.5% to 32.3%)
13%
20
19 games
4th-place rate
47.4%
28.0% (19.4% to 36.5%)
14%
1
19 games
Style
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Win rate
15.7%
19.0% (16.4% to 21.6%)
23%
14
242 hands
Deal-in rate
11.6%
11.1% (9.1% to 13.0%)
21%
30
242 hands
Riichi rate
23.6%
22.9% (20.2% to 25.7%)
25%
68
242 hands
Call rate
12.8%
15.0% (11.0% to 18.9%)
79%
4
242 hands
First riichi rate
82.5%
76.7% (72.2% to 81.3%)
11%
90
57 riichi
Average riichi turn
10.05
9.52 (9.08 to 9.95)
25%
11
57 riichi
Average win value
6,479
6,575 (5,950 to 7,201)
13%
33
38 wins
Average deal-in value
5,957
5,655 (5,104 to 6,205)
9%
27
28 deal-ins
Win efficiency
1,130
1,465 (1,359 to 1,570)
3%
7
242 hands
Deal-in loss
740
648 (539 to 758)
10%
17
242 hands
Net efficiency
390
787 (559 to 1,015)
11%
4
242 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)
35.8%
39.7% (33.0% to 46.4%)
23%
46
53 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)
35.4%
29.0% (22.1% to 35.8%)
35%
97
48 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call
48.4%
33.3% (24.8% to 41.7%)
33%
97
31 first calls
Average win turn
12.38
12.38 (12.23 to 12.53)
1%
55
38 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws
33.3%
38.4% (31.9% to 45.0%)
24%
20
57 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi
8.4%
13.8% (11.8% to 15.7%)
6%
1
119 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate
73.6%
73.5% (71.7% to 75.2%)
80%
68
1,337 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)
0.94
0.98 (0.87 to 1.08)
69%
11
1,305 discards
Breaking shape for value
2.3%
2.2% (1.7% to 2.7%)
58%
74
1,337 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)
8.61
8.18 (8.05 to 8.31)
3%
90
54 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate
78.1%
73.7% (67.2% to 80.3%)
33%
81
54 tenpai hands
Dama rate
21.1%
16.3% (10.1% to 22.4%)
38%
81
38 wins
Riichi income
1,368
2,456 (1,651 to 3,261)
13%
4
57 riichi
Riichi win rate
35.1%
43.3% (36.6% to 50.0%)
25%
7
57 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A
14.0%
14.3% (12.4% to 16.2%)
2%
33
57 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B
12.3%
11.1% (8.5% to 13.7%)
6%
17
57 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate
45.6%
49.1% (43.1% to 55.1%)
16%
33
57 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate
28.1%
20.9% (16.0% to 25.9%)
19%
97
57 riichi
Call income
429
484 (-10.38 to 978)
5%
52
31 calls
Win rate after calling
32.3%
30.1% (23.5% to 36.6%)
11%
52
31 calls
Deal-in rate after calling
16.1%
12.0% (7.5% to 16.6%)
11%
27
31 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
Metric
Actual
Percentile
Count
Starting hand (shanten)
-0.06
4
242 hands
Dora and red fives dealt
+0.02
49
242 hands
Draw luck
-0.2%
43
3,057 tile draws
Ura-dora luck
-0.28
1
20 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate
+5.3%
76
20 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)
+1.9%
62
47 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate
8.5%
90
71 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)
-6.7
17
19 games
Hand balance breakdown
Category
Frequency
Balance per hand
League average
Difference
Wins with riichi
8.3%
+713
+919
-206
Wins with calls
4.1%
+280
+382
-102
Dama wins
3.3%
+137
+173
-36
Deal-ins to riichi
4.5%
-403
-360
-43
Deal-ins to open hands
3.3%
-223
-203
-20
Deal-ins to dama
3.7%
-143
-101
-43
Others' tsumo
29.3%
-860
-752
-108
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)
43.4%
-87
-60
-27
Total (per hand)
-586
2021-22 (22 games · skill estimate -2.5pt/game)
Style
Average win value846,691
Riichi rate10024.6%
Deal-in rate5810.7%
Win rate1418.7%
First riichi rate9777.2%
Average riichi turn179.56
Call rate415.4%
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws8441.8%
Staying in vs riichi2013.9%
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)7441.6%
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)8927.5%
Tile efficiency match rate5272.2%
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)308.17
Immediate riichi rate7873.0%
Dama rate2311.3%
Where the points came from
Own wins+38.4
Deal-ins-18.2
Others' tsumo-34.5
Ron between others-4.0
Exhaustive draws+0.4
Change in expected points per game. Total -17.8pt/game (22 games).As a table
Hand result
Hands
Total
Per game
Own wins
38
+845.5
+38.4
Deal-ins
26
-399.9
-18.2
Others' tsumo
89
-759.6
-34.5
Ron between others
44
-87.1
-4.0
Exhaustive draws
62
+8.8
+0.4
Luck
Points from luck (/game)23-4.8
Draw luck58+0.1%
Starting hand (shanten)14-0.05
Dora and red fives dealt87+0.06
Ura-dora luck33-0.05
Ippatsu rate46-1.2%
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)49+2.3%
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate119.1%
Every number for 2021-22
Results
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Average placement
2.95
2.56 (2.36 to 2.76)
13%
4
22 games
Points per game
-17.9
-2.5 (-10.8 to 5.8)
14%
4
22 games
Points per game, luck removed
-13.1
-2.4 (-10.1 to 5.3)
18%
7
22 games
1st-place rate
4.5%
22.1% (13.9% to 30.2%)
15%
1
22 games
4th-place rate
31.8%
26.0% (17.7% to 34.2%)
15%
23
22 games
Style
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Win rate
14.7%
18.7% (16.2% to 21.2%)
25%
14
259 hands
Deal-in rate
10.0%
10.7% (8.8% to 12.6%)
22%
58
259 hands
Riichi rate
29.7%
24.6% (21.9% to 27.2%)
26%
100
259 hands
Call rate
13.5%
15.4% (11.6% to 19.3%)
80%
4
259 hands
First riichi rate
84.4%
77.2% (73.0% to 81.5%)
15%
97
77 riichi
Average riichi turn
10.06
9.56 (9.17 to 9.96)
31%
17
77 riichi
Average win value
7,347
6,691 (6,065 to 7,317)
13%
84
38 wins
Average deal-in value
4,919
5,568 (5,011 to 6,126)
8%
87
26 deal-ins
Win efficiency
1,167
1,465 (1,360 to 1,570)
3%
11
259 hands
Deal-in loss
509
626 (517 to 734)
10%
81
259 hands
Net efficiency
658
815 (590 to 1,040)
12%
23
259 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)
45.7%
41.6% (34.1% to 49.2%)
16%
74
35 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)
30.5%
27.5% (21.1% to 33.9%)
39%
89
59 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call
28.6%
26.7% (18.6% to 34.8%)
36%
52
35 first calls
Average win turn
12.88
12.38 (12.23 to 12.54)
1%
33
38 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws
46.8%
41.8% (35.4% to 48.1%)
26%
84
62 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi
11.0%
13.9% (11.9% to 15.9%)
5%
20
118 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate
72.0%
72.2% (70.5% to 73.9%)
81%
52
1,438 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)
1.04
1.04 (0.94 to 1.15)
70%
36
1,393 discards
Breaking shape for value
1.7%
1.8% (1.4% to 2.3%)
60%
30
1,438 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)
8.12
8.17 (8.04 to 8.30)
4%
30
61 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate
75.5%
73.0% (66.7% to 79.3%)
35%
78
61 tenpai hands
Dama rate
7.9%
11.3% (5.1% to 17.4%)
38%
23
38 wins
Riichi income
1,712
2,467 (1,717 to 3,216)
17%
11
77 riichi
Riichi win rate
35.1%
42.7% (36.6% to 48.7%)
31%
11
77 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A
13.0%
14.3% (12.4% to 16.2%)
3%
46
77 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B
11.7%
11.1% (8.6% to 13.6%)
8%
23
77 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate
37.7%
47.3% (41.8% to 52.8%)
20%
1
77 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate
22.1%
19.9% (15.4% to 24.5%)
24%
65
77 riichi
Call income
-663
423 (-64.69 to 910)
6%
14
35 calls
Win rate after calling
22.9%
29.0% (22.6% to 35.3%)
12%
27
35 calls
Deal-in rate after calling
17.1%
12.2% (7.8% to 16.6%)
12%
14
35 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
Metric
Actual
Percentile
Count
Starting hand (shanten)
-0.05
14
259 hands
Dora and red fives dealt
+0.06
87
259 hands
Draw luck
+0.1%
58
3,321 tile draws
Ura-dora luck
-0.05
33
27 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate
-1.2%
46
27 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)
+2.3%
49
65 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate
19.1%
1
89 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)
-4.8
23
22 games
Hand balance breakdown
Category
Frequency
Balance per hand
League average
Difference
Wins with riichi
10.4%
+965
+919
+46
Wins with calls
3.1%
+174
+382
-208
Dama wins
1.2%
+28
+173
-145
Deal-ins to riichi
5.0%
-338
-360
+22
Deal-ins to open hands
2.3%
-77
-203
+126
Deal-ins to dama
2.7%
-129
-101
-28
Others' tsumo
34.4%
-990
-752
-238
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)
40.9%
-35
-60
+25
Total (per hand)
-402
2020-21 (27 games · skill estimate -2.8pt/game)
Style
Average win value596,640
Riichi rate5922.7%
Deal-in rate1811.3%
Win rate1519.1%
First riichi rate1575.6%
Average riichi turn89.55
Call rate814.9%
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws4539.6%
Staying in vs riichi113.7%
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)9043.1%
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)6225.2%
Tile efficiency match rate868.9%
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)978.19
Immediate riichi rate868.0%
Dama rate6916.0%
Where the points came from
Own wins+39.1
Deal-ins-23.3
Others' tsumo-30.0
Ron between others-1.5
Exhaustive draws-1.4
Change in expected points per game. Total -17.0pt/game (27 games).As a table
Hand result
Hands
Total
Per game
Own wins
52
+1055.0
+39.1
Deal-ins
39
-629.6
-23.3
Others' tsumo
93
-808.8
-30.0
Ron between others
67
-39.3
-1.5
Exhaustive draws
60
-37.4
-1.4
Luck
Points from luck (/game)49-0.5
Draw luck73+0.3%
Starting hand (shanten)69+0.04
Dora and red fives dealt62+0.02
Ura-dora luck100+0.23
Ippatsu rate97+11.7%
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)1-11.9%
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate122.6%
Every number for 2020-21
Results
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Average placement
2.93
2.56 (2.37 to 2.76)
16%
1
27 games
Points per game
-17.1
-2.8 (-10.7 to 5.1)
17%
1
27 games
Points per game, luck removed
-16.6
-3.6 (-10.8 to 3.7)
22%
1
27 games
1st-place rate
11.1%
22.6% (14.9% to 30.4%)
17%
1
27 games
4th-place rate
44.4%
28.5% (20.7% to 36.3%)
18%
1
27 games
Style
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Win rate
16.7%
19.1% (16.7% to 21.4%)
28%
15
311 hands
Deal-in rate
12.5%
11.3% (9.5% to 13.1%)
25%
18
311 hands
Riichi rate
22.5%
22.7% (20.2% to 25.2%)
30%
59
311 hands
Call rate
13.2%
14.9% (11.3% to 18.5%)
83%
8
311 hands
First riichi rate
72.9%
75.6% (71.2% to 79.9%)
13%
15
70 riichi
Average riichi turn
10.07
9.55 (9.14 to 9.96)
29%
8
70 riichi
Average win value
6,875
6,640 (6,059 to 7,221)
17%
59
52 wins
Average deal-in value
6,136
5,685 (5,166 to 6,205)
12%
21
39 deal-ins
Win efficiency
1,279
1,467 (1,364 to 1,571)
3%
32
311 hands
Deal-in loss
804
659 (554 to 763)
12%
4
311 hands
Net efficiency
475
787 (570 to 1,003)
14%
8
311 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)
49.2%
43.1% (36.8% to 49.3%)
26%
90
65 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)
24.6%
25.2% (19.1% to 31.2%)
43%
62
69 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call
43.9%
32.9% (25.3% to 40.6%)
40%
97
41 first calls
Average win turn
12.62
12.38 (12.23 to 12.53)
1%
32
52 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws
38.3%
39.6% (33.2% to 46.0%)
25%
45
60 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi
9.3%
13.7% (11.8% to 15.6%)
7%
1
162 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate
68.2%
68.9% (67.3% to 70.5%)
85%
8
1,873 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)
1.33
1.26 (1.17 to 1.36)
75%
97
1,794 discards
Breaking shape for value
2.3%
2.2% (1.8% to 2.7%)
66%
73
1,873 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)
8.80
8.19 (8.06 to 8.32)
4%
97
66 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate
61.8%
68.0% (61.9% to 74.1%)
37%
8
66 tenpai hands
Dama rate
19.2%
16.0% (10.5% to 21.5%)
46%
69
52 wins
Riichi income
2,386
2,585 (1,817 to 3,353)
16%
49
70 riichi
Riichi win rate
50.0%
47.1% (40.9% to 53.4%)
29%
69
70 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A
18.6%
14.4% (12.6% to 16.3%)
3%
18
70 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B
10.0%
11.0% (8.4% to 13.5%)
7%
69
70 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate
51.4%
50.1% (44.4% to 55.7%)
19%
49
70 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate
14.3%
18.1% (13.5% to 22.8%)
22%
11
70 riichi
Call income
-659
413 (-65.11 to 891)
6%
4
41 calls
Win rate after calling
17.1%
28.0% (21.9% to 34.2%)
14%
4
41 calls
Deal-in rate after calling
17.1%
12.3% (8.0% to 16.6%)
14%
21
41 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
Metric
Actual
Percentile
Count
Starting hand (shanten)
+0.04
69
311 hands
Dora and red fives dealt
+0.02
62
311 hands
Draw luck
+0.3%
73
3,942 tile draws
Ura-dora luck
+0.23
100
35 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate
+11.7%
97
35 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)
-11.9%
1
51 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate
22.6%
1
93 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)
-0.5
49
27 games
Hand balance breakdown
Category
Frequency
Balance per hand
League average
Difference
Wins with riichi
11.3%
+938
+919
+19
Wins with calls
2.3%
+133
+382
-249
Dama wins
3.2%
+209
+173
+36
Deal-ins to riichi
6.1%
-445
-360
-85
Deal-ins to open hands
2.9%
-130
-203
+74
Deal-ins to dama
3.5%
-252
-101
-151
Others' tsumo
29.9%
-889
-752
-137
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)
40.8%
-64
-60
-5
Total (per hand)
-501
2019-20 (29 games · skill estimate -1.5pt/game)
Style
Average win value156,501
Riichi rate9323.7%
Deal-in rate111.8%
Win rate4719.7%
First riichi rate2675.7%
Average riichi turn129.50
Call rate1215.1%
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws6541.1%
Staying in vs riichi6514.2%
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)8642.5%
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)7927.3%
Tile efficiency match rate5872.0%
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)968.19
Immediate riichi rate5471.5%
Dama rate4314.3%
Where the points came from
Own wins+43.9
Deal-ins-24.1
Others' tsumo-25.5
Ron between others-1.9
Exhaustive draws-1.0
Change in expected points per game. Total -8.7pt/game (29 games).As a table
Hand result
Hands
Total
Per game
Own wins
66
+1271.8
+43.9
Deal-ins
49
-698.2
-24.1
Others' tsumo
101
-739.8
-25.5
Ron between others
59
-55.9
-1.9
Exhaustive draws
71
-29.7
-1.0
Luck
Points from luck (/game)58+0.5
Draw luck93+0.5%
Starting hand (shanten)93+0.03
Dora and red fives dealt43-0.01
Ura-dora luck54+0.06
Ippatsu rate22-4.4%
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)47-0.4%
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate2614.9%
Every number for 2019-20
Results
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Average placement
2.66
2.52 (2.33 to 2.71)
17%
12
29 games
Points per game
-8.7
-1.5 (-9.3 to 6.2)
18%
12
29 games
Points per game, luck removed
-9.1
-2.1 (-9.2 to 5.0)
23%
5
29 games
1st-place rate
17.2%
23.6% (16.0% to 31.2%)
18%
15
29 games
4th-place rate
27.6%
25.4% (17.8% to 33.1%)
19%
43
29 games
Style
Metric
Actual
Estimate (90% interval)
Weight of the record
Percentile
Count
Win rate
19.1%
19.7% (17.4% to 22.0%)
30%
47
346 hands
Deal-in rate
14.2%
11.8% (10.1% to 13.5%)
27%
1
346 hands
Riichi rate
25.7%
23.7% (21.3% to 26.1%)
32%
93
346 hands
Call rate
13.6%
15.1% (11.7% to 18.5%)
84%
12
346 hands
First riichi rate
74.2%
75.7% (71.6% to 79.8%)
16%
26
89 riichi
Average riichi turn
9.82
9.50 (9.13 to 9.88)
34%
12
89 riichi
Average win value
6,165
6,501 (5,957 to 7,045)
21%
15
66 wins
Average deal-in value
5,020
5,539 (5,045 to 6,034)
14%
96
49 deal-ins
Win efficiency
1,329
1,469 (1,366 to 1,571)
4%
12
346 hands
Deal-in loss
740
652 (549 to 755)
13%
19
346 hands
Net efficiency
590
799 (587 to 1,010)
15%
8
346 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)
47.5%
42.5% (36.1% to 48.9%)
25%
86
61 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)
29.3%
27.3% (21.6% to 33.0%)
48%
79
82 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call
40.4%
32.0% (24.7% to 39.3%)
43%
82
47 first calls
Average win turn
11.79
12.37 (12.22 to 12.52)
2%
96
66 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws
43.7%
41.1% (35.0% to 47.1%)
28%
65
71 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi
15.3%
14.2% (12.3% to 16.0%)
8%
65
177 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate
71.9%
72.0% (70.5% to 73.6%)
84%
58
1,804 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)
1.10
1.09 (0.99 to 1.18)
75%
47
1,755 discards
Breaking shape for value
1.5%
1.7% (1.2% to 2.1%)
65%
8
1,804 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)
8.62
8.19 (8.07 to 8.32)
5%
96
86 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate
71.3%
71.5% (65.9% to 77.1%)
44%
54
86 tenpai hands
Dama rate
15.2%
14.3% (9.2% to 19.4%)
52%
43
66 wins
Riichi income
1,976
2,498 (1,777 to 3,219)
19%
15
89 riichi
Riichi win rate
43.8%
45.3% (39.6% to 51.0%)
34%
33
89 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A
15.7%
14.4% (12.5% to 16.2%)
3%
19
89 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B
15.7%
11.5% (9.0% to 13.9%)
9%
5
89 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate
43.8%
48.4% (43.1% to 53.7%)
23%
8
89 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate
21.3%
19.8% (15.5% to 24.1%)
27%
65
89 riichi
Call income
860
514 (44.96 to 983)
7%
61
47 calls
Win rate after calling
36.2%
30.8% (24.8% to 36.8%)
16%
75
47 calls
Deal-in rate after calling
17.0%
12.4% (8.2% to 16.5%)
15%
15
47 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
Metric
Actual
Percentile
Count
Starting hand (shanten)
+0.03
93
346 hands
Dora and red fives dealt
-0.01
43
346 hands
Draw luck
+0.5%
93
4,227 tile draws
Ura-dora luck
+0.06
54
39 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate
-4.4%
22
39 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)
-0.4%
47
66 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate
14.9%
26
101 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)
+0.5
58
29 games
Hand balance breakdown
Category
Frequency
Balance per hand
League average
Difference
Wins with riichi
11.3%
+912
+919
-7
Wins with calls
4.9%
+297
+382
-85
Dama wins
2.9%
+120
+173
-53
Deal-ins to riichi
5.2%
-399
-360
-39
Deal-ins to open hands
6.1%
-255
-203
-52
Deal-ins to dama
2.9%
-126
-101
-25
Others' tsumo
29.2%
-844
-752
-91
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)
37.6%
-39
-60
+21
Total (per hand)
-334
2018-19 (30 games · skill estimate -0.4pt/game)
Style
Average win value556,631
Riichi rate5522.7%
Deal-in rate7510.7%
Win rate7520.3%
First riichi rate674.6%
Average riichi turn609.39
Call rate614.8%
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws1136.9%
Staying in vs riichi613.8%
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)4140.0%
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)6027.6%
Tile efficiency match rate167.7%
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)708.17
Immediate riichi rate1167.7%
Dama rate9018.0%
Where the points came from
Own wins+48.9
Deal-ins-18.9
Others' tsumo-25.1
Ron between others-3.9
Exhaustive draws-3.0
Change in expected points per game. Total -2.0pt/game (30 games).As a table
Players with a similar styleclosest career style metrics first
Jun MurakamiFormer M.League playerIn common: Late riichi, Low win rate, Strong draws
Aiko HinataShibuya ABEMASIn common: Strong draws, Often noten at exhaustive draws, Low win rate
Kanako MaruyamaFormer M.League playerIn common: Late riichi, Shape and value first, Low win rate
* Twelve style metrics, including call rate, riichi rate, win rate, deal-in rate, hand value, riichi speed and immediate riichi rate, are put on the same scale and compared; the players closest overall are listed. Metrics supported more strongly by the data receive more weight. The comparison shows how similar the players' styles are, not which is better. Differences are often small, so the order may change.