Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Player · 230 career games · 2020-21–2026-27

Shingo Hori

Uses calls a lot to move hands along. Stands out for riichi-ing first. Career record: +1.8pt per game, but allowing for luck the difference from average is not clear yet.

Actual / game
+1.8
230 career games
Skill estimate / game
+1.1
90% interval -2.8 to +5.0
Estimate, luck removed
+2.7
adjusted for starting hands, draws, ura-dora
Weight of the record
63%
share of the estimate from the record

Styleleague percentile, career

  • Average win value6,676
  • Riichi rate20.7%
  • Deal-in rate10.4%
  • Win rate20.0%
  • First riichi rate77.6%
  • Average riichi turn9.31
  • Call rate25.2%
  • Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws39.9%
  • Staying in vs riichi13.6%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)37.1%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)23.9%
  • Tile efficiency match rate73.2%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.13
  • Immediate riichi rate69.7%
  • Dama rate14.8%

Color only for metrics with a good side (red = good, blue = bad). Metrics of style, such as riichi rate, call rate and tile efficiency match rate, are gray. For tenpai turn, further right means later (a larger turn number). Values are estimates.

Placements230 career games, average placement 2.47

  • 1st29.6%68×
  • 2nd19.6%45×
  • 3rd25.2%58×
  • 4th25.7%59×

Riichi and callsbalance and outcome of hands with riichi or calls

  • Riichi income2,770
  • Riichi win rate47.6%
  • Riichi deal-in rate A14.3%
  • Riichi deal-in rate B11.3%
  • Riichi good-wait rate52.2%
  • Riichi exhaustive draw rate18.1%
  • Call income461
  • Win rate after calling29.1%
  • Deal-in rate after calling12.3%
  • Tenpai rate after the first call20.4%

Income is the average points won or lost in those hands (riichi sticks and honba included).

Net efficiency and morecalculated as on Mahjong Soul Paifuya, per hand

  • Net efficiency860
  • Deal-in loss626
  • Average win turn12.38

Deal-in loss = deal-in rate × average deal-in; net efficiency = win rate × average win − deal-in loss. Win and deal-in values include honba and riichi sticks. Win turn is the number of tiles discarded at the table when the win came ÷ 4 + 1. Win efficiency (win rate × average win) is not shown: players with a high win rate win smaller hands, the two cancel out, and differences between players cannot be told apart from chance.

Skill estimateleague percentile of the estimates

  • Points per game1.1
  • Points per game, luck removed2.7
  • Average placement2.48

Luckfurther right is luckier; values are differences from the league average (the dealer tsumo rate is the rate itself)

  • Points from luck (/game)-2.1
  • Draw luck+0.1%
  • Starting hand (shanten)-0.01
  • Dora and red fives dealt+0.00
  • Ura-dora luck+0.01
  • Ippatsu rate+3.1%
  • Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+2.8%
  • Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate9.5%

Where the points came fromchange in expected points, all stages

  • Own wins+45.9
  • Deal-ins-19.0
  • Others' tsumo-23.8
  • Ron between others-1.5
  • Exhaustive draws+0.3
Change in expected points per game. Total +1.8pt/game (230 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins541+10547.7+45.9
Deal-ins275-4360.8-19.0
Others' tsumo777-5470.0-23.8
Ron between others584-356.4-1.5
Exhaustive draws530+64.8+0.3

Hand balance breakdownpoints won or lost per hand, all stages

CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi9.7%+862+919-57
Wins with calls7.3%+418+382+36
Dama wins3.0%+213+173+40
Deal-ins to riichi4.5%-341-360+19
Deal-ins to open hands4.2%-212-203-9
Deal-ins to dama1.4%-86-101+15
Others' tsumo28.7%-774-752-22
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)41.2%-51-60+9
Total (per hand)+29
Every career number (estimate, 90% interval, weight of the record)
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.472.48 (2.38 to 2.58)61%66230 games
Points per game1.81.1 (-2.8 to 5.0)63%70230 games
Points per game, luck removed3.92.7 (-0.8 to 6.2)70%92230 games
1st-place rate29.6%28.0% (24.2% to 31.7%)64%98230 games
4th-place rate25.7%25.4% (21.6% to 29.2%)66%41230 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate20.0%20.0% (18.9% to 21.1%)77%562,707 hands
Deal-in rate10.2%10.4% (9.5% to 11.2%)74%842,707 hands
Riichi rate20.2%20.7% (19.5% to 21.9%)79%72,707 hands
Call rate25.3%25.2% (23.9% to 26.5%)98%682,707 hands
First riichi rate78.9%77.6% (75.3% to 79.9%)55%92546 riichi
Average riichi turn9.309.31 (9.11 to 9.51)76%54546 riichi
Average win value6,7166,676 (6,410 to 6,943)69%70541 wins
Average deal-in value5,8625,740 (5,455 to 6,024)48%11275 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,4931,479 (1,409 to 1,548)24%642,707 hands
Deal-in loss615626 (573 to 680)54%682,707 hands
Net efficiency878860 (751 to 969)58%742,707 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)35.7%37.1% (34.0% to 40.2%)73%5493 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)23.6%23.9% (21.0% to 26.8%)85%25517 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call19.9%20.4% (17.7% to 23.0%)92%7684 first calls
Average win turn12.3612.38 (12.26 to 12.49)12%56541 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws39.8%39.9% (36.8% to 42.9%)75%52530 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi13.0%13.6% (12.6% to 14.7%)41%151,421 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate73.2%73.2% (72.6% to 73.8%)98%6014,590 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)1.061.06 (1.02 to 1.10)96%5413,964 discards
Breaking shape for value2.0%2.0% (1.8% to 2.2%)94%5214,590 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.028.13 (8.05 to 8.22)24%5532 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate69.3%69.7% (66.8% to 72.6%)83%29532 tenpai hands
Dama rate15.0%14.8% (12.5% to 17.1%)90%66541 wins
Riichi income2,8702,770 (2,378 to 3,162)60%80546 riichi
Riichi win rate48.2%47.6% (44.6% to 50.7%)76%78546 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A14.1%14.3% (12.9% to 15.7%)17%56546 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B11.7%11.3% (9.8% to 12.8%)37%21546 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate53.5%52.2% (49.3% to 55.0%)65%92546 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate17.6%18.1% (15.8% to 20.4%)69%25546 riichi
Call income439461 (241 to 681)53%37684 calls
Win rate after calling28.8%29.1% (26.6% to 31.5%)73%37684 calls
Deal-in rate after calling12.6%12.3% (10.6% to 14.0%)73%29684 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)-0.01252,707 hands
Dora and red fives dealt+0.00492,707 hands
Draw luck+0.1%6232,867 tile draws
Ura-dora luck+0.0149263 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate+3.1%86263 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+2.8%90431 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate9.5%97777 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)-2.119230 games

By seasonRegular Season

2026-27 (14 games · skill estimate 1.6pt/game)

Style

  • Average win value6,538
  • Riichi rate22.5%
  • Deal-in rate10.4%
  • Win rate20.2%
  • First riichi rate76.8%
  • Average riichi turn9.20
  • Call rate24.3%
  • Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws37.7%
  • Staying in vs riichi14.0%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)40.6%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)25.6%
  • Tile efficiency match rate74.9%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.16
  • Immediate riichi rate69.1%
  • Dama rate14.0%

Where the points came from

  • Own wins+45.8
  • Deal-ins-8.3
  • Others' tsumo-18.4
  • Ron between others+1.7
  • Exhaustive draws-3.3
Change in expected points per game. Total +17.4pt/game (14 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins33+641.5+45.8
Deal-ins11-116.7-8.3
Others' tsumo41-258.1-18.4
Ron between others33+24.0+1.7
Exhaustive draws35-46.6-3.3

Luck

  • Points from luck (/game)+1.4
  • Draw luck+1.4%
  • Starting hand (shanten)-0.02
  • Dora and red fives dealt-0.01
  • Ura-dora luck+0.09
  • Ippatsu rate-13.1%
  • Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+1.2%
  • Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate7.3%
Every number for 2026-27
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.142.47 (2.25 to 2.69)9%8714 games
Points per game17.51.6 (-7.4 to 10.7)9%8914 games
Points per game, luck removed16.12.0 (-6.5 to 10.5)12%8914 games
1st-place rate57.1%28.2% (19.3% to 37.1%)10%9514 games
4th-place rate28.6%25.3% (16.2% to 34.3%)10%3414 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate21.6%20.2% (17.3% to 23.2%)16%73153 hands
Deal-in rate7.2%10.4% (8.2% to 12.6%)14%92153 hands
Riichi rate21.6%22.5% (19.4% to 25.7%)17%28153 hands
Call rate24.8%24.3% (19.6% to 29.0%)70%55153 hands
First riichi rate87.9%76.8% (71.8% to 81.8%)7%10033 riichi
Average riichi turn8.529.20 (8.69 to 9.71)16%7933 riichi
Average win value6,1426,538 (5,893 to 7,182)12%4633 wins
Average deal-in value3,7825,559 (4,942 to 6,177)4%8711 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,4971,475 (1,365 to 1,584)2%71153 hands
Deal-in loss280616 (499 to 734)6%92153 hands
Net efficiency1,217863 (617 to 1,108)7%87153 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)39.3%40.6% (32.7% to 48.6%)13%3628 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)25.9%25.6% (17.3% to 34.0%)23%5927 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call26.3%25.9% (18.0% to 33.8%)38%6338 first calls
Average win turn12.9512.38 (12.23 to 12.54)1%1233 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws25.7%37.7% (30.2% to 45.2%)16%935 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi11.3%14.0% (11.9% to 16.0%)4%2580 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate75.7%74.9% (72.6% to 77.1%)70%71774 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)0.890.97 (0.84 to 1.10)55%17741 discards
Breaking shape for value1.7%1.9% (1.3% to 2.5%)45%36774 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)7.968.16 (8.03 to 8.30)2%3037 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate61.6%69.1% (61.6% to 76.6%)25%637 tenpai hands
Dama rate15.2%14.0% (7.5% to 20.4%)35%8133 wins
Riichi income2,4062,605 (1,716 to 3,495)8%5233 riichi
Riichi win rate45.5%45.9% (38.1% to 53.7%)16%6333 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A12.1%14.3% (12.3% to 16.3%)1%6033 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B12.1%11.1% (8.3% to 13.8%)3%3833 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate60.6%50.8% (44.1% to 57.5%)10%8933 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate15.2%18.8% (13.1% to 24.4%)12%2533 riichi
Call income1,066521 (38.79 to 1,004)6%8138 calls
Win rate after calling34.2%30.4% (24.1% to 36.6%)13%7338 calls
Deal-in rate after calling2.6%10.4% (6.0% to 14.7%)13%9538 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)-0.0228153 hands
Dora and red fives dealt-0.0130153 hands
Draw luck+1.4%1001,907 tile draws
Ura-dora luck+0.095715 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate-13.1%915 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+1.2%6329 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate7.3%8441 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)+1.46514 games
Hand balance breakdown
CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi9.8%+754+919-165
Wins with calls8.5%+527+382+145
Dama wins3.3%+215+173+42
Deal-ins to riichi1.3%-66-360+294
Deal-ins to open hands3.9%-147-203+56
Deal-ins to dama2.0%-93-101+8
Others' tsumo26.8%-641-752+111
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)44.4%-186-60-127
Total (per hand)+363
2025-26 (32 games · skill estimate -2.6pt/game)

Style

  • Average win value6,741
  • Riichi rate22.2%
  • Deal-in rate11.4%
  • Win rate19.0%
  • First riichi rate76.2%
  • Average riichi turn9.19
  • Call rate25.4%
  • Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws40.7%
  • Staying in vs riichi14.1%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)40.2%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)24.7%
  • Tile efficiency match rate75.2%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.16
  • Immediate riichi rate73.4%
  • Dama rate11.6%

Where the points came from

  • Own wins+40.1
  • Deal-ins-26.1
  • Others' tsumo-25.3
  • Ron between others-3.7
  • Exhaustive draws+1.2
Change in expected points per game. Total -13.7pt/game (32 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins61+1284.1+40.1
Deal-ins45-833.9-26.1
Others' tsumo111-808.5-25.3
Ron between others75-117.5-3.7
Exhaustive draws68+38.1+1.2

Luck

  • Points from luck (/game)-5.0
  • Draw luck-0.7%
  • Starting hand (shanten)+0.05
  • Dora and red fives dealt-0.02
  • Ura-dora luck+0.20
  • Ippatsu rate+3.1%
  • Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)-1.8%
  • Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate8.1%
Every number for 2025-26
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.882.57 (2.38 to 2.75)18%132 games
Points per game-13.8-2.6 (-10.2 to 4.9)19%432 games
Points per game, luck removed-8.8-2.2 (-9.0 to 4.7)25%1132 games
1st-place rate15.6%23.2% (15.8% to 30.6%)20%1932 games
4th-place rate34.4%26.9% (19.4% to 34.3%)21%1132 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate16.9%19.0% (16.8% to 21.3%)31%11360 hands
Deal-in rate12.5%11.4% (9.6% to 13.1%)28%34360 hands
Riichi rate21.1%22.2% (19.8% to 24.6%)33%26360 hands
Call rate25.8%25.4% (22.0% to 28.7%)85%59360 hands
First riichi rate77.6%76.2% (72.0% to 80.5%)14%7276 riichi
Average riichi turn8.869.19 (8.79 to 9.58)31%8576 riichi
Average win value7,3516,741 (6,184 to 7,297)20%9261 wins
Average deal-in value6,3605,723 (5,219 to 6,227)13%445 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,3451,469 (1,367 to 1,571)4%21360 hands
Deal-in loss819663 (562 to 765)14%11360 hands
Net efficiency526788 (578 to 997)15%6360 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)38.3%40.2% (33.8% to 46.7%)25%4260 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)23.6%24.7% (18.7% to 30.6%)44%3472 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call15.1%19.3% (13.4% to 25.1%)60%493 first calls
Average win turn12.1112.38 (12.23 to 12.52)1%5961 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws42.6%40.7% (34.6% to 46.9%)27%6268 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi14.7%14.1% (12.3% to 16.0%)9%67190 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate75.6%75.2% (73.7% to 76.8%)85%621,916 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)0.970.99 (0.90 to 1.09)76%441,849 discards
Breaking shape for value2.5%2.3% (1.9% to 2.7%)67%901,916 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)7.918.16 (8.03 to 8.28)4%2171 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate76.1%73.4% (67.4% to 79.3%)39%7271 tenpai hands
Dama rate9.8%11.6% (6.4% to 16.8%)50%5461 wins
Riichi income1,5032,433 (1,680 to 3,185)17%976 riichi
Riichi win rate46.1%46.0% (40.0% to 52.1%)30%3876 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A19.7%14.5% (12.6% to 16.3%)3%1476 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B18.4%11.6% (9.1% to 14.1%)8%476 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate60.5%51.9% (46.4% to 57.5%)20%9276 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate10.5%17.2% (12.6% to 21.7%)24%476 riichi
Call income-268385 (-30.78 to 800)14%1693 calls
Win rate after calling21.5%27.6% (22.7% to 32.5%)27%693 calls
Deal-in rate after calling18.3%13.3% (9.9% to 16.7%)27%693 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)+0.0590360 hands
Dora and red fives dealt-0.0239360 hands
Draw luck-0.7%94,337 tile draws
Ura-dora luck+0.208735 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate+3.1%7535 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)-1.8%4259 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate8.1%97111 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)-5.01632 games
Hand balance breakdown
CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi9.7%+805+919-114
Wins with calls5.6%+347+382-35
Dama wins1.7%+192+173+19
Deal-ins to riichi5.8%-511-360-151
Deal-ins to open hands6.4%-325-203-122
Deal-ins to dama0.3%-22-101+79
Others' tsumo30.8%-851-752-98
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)39.7%-32-60+28
Total (per hand)-396
2024-25 (33 games · skill estimate 0.4pt/game)

Style

  • Average win value6,483
  • Riichi rate22.1%
  • Deal-in rate10.8%
  • Win rate19.9%
  • First riichi rate76.5%
  • Average riichi turn9.40
  • Call rate25.7%
  • Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws42.9%
  • Staying in vs riichi14.2%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)39.8%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)22.3%
  • Tile efficiency match rate74.9%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.16
  • Immediate riichi rate67.7%
  • Dama rate12.8%

Where the points came from

  • Own wins+44.8
  • Deal-ins-19.5
  • Others' tsumo-22.2
  • Ron between others-2.4
  • Exhaustive draws+1.6
Change in expected points per game. Total +2.3pt/game (33 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins81+1478.1+44.8
Deal-ins44-644.2-19.5
Others' tsumo107-731.7-22.2
Ron between others100-79.2-2.4
Exhaustive draws81+52.4+1.6

Luck

  • Points from luck (/game)+2.0
  • Draw luck+0.3%
  • Starting hand (shanten)+0.05
  • Dora and red fives dealt-0.01
  • Ura-dora luck-0.08
  • Ippatsu rate+3.9%
  • Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+3.6%
  • Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate6.5%
Every number for 2024-25
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.452.49 (2.31 to 2.67)18%5233 games
Points per game2.20.4 (-7.1 to 7.9)20%5233 games
Points per game, luck removed0.20.1 (-6.7 to 6.8)25%5833 games
1st-place rate30.3%26.1% (18.8% to 33.4%)20%6933 games
4th-place rate21.2%24.1% (16.7% to 31.5%)21%6333 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate19.6%19.9% (17.7% to 22.0%)34%35413 hands
Deal-in rate10.7%10.8% (9.2% to 12.5%)31%69413 hands
Riichi rate21.1%22.1% (19.9% to 24.4%)36%18413 hands
Call rate26.2%25.7% (22.6% to 28.9%)86%58413 hands
First riichi rate79.3%76.5% (72.4% to 80.7%)16%8087 riichi
Average riichi turn9.539.40 (9.03 to 9.78)34%2487 riichi
Average win value6,1536,483 (5,972 to 6,993)25%3281 wins
Average deal-in value5,5505,616 (5,109 to 6,123)13%3544 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,3711,469 (1,369 to 1,570)5%32413 hands
Deal-in loss613635 (536 to 733)15%55413 hands
Net efficiency758822 (619 to 1,025)17%38413 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)37.3%39.8% (33.8% to 45.8%)29%2175 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)18.4%22.3% (16.5% to 28.1%)46%476 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call21.3%22.9% (17.3% to 28.4%)64%29108 first calls
Average win turn11.9612.37 (12.23 to 12.52)2%8681 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws49.4%42.9% (37.1% to 48.7%)31%8981 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi15.3%14.2% (12.4% to 16.0%)10%69215 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate75.2%74.9% (73.5% to 76.3%)87%772,238 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)0.950.97 (0.88 to 1.06)78%352,146 discards
Breaking shape for value2.2%2.2% (1.8% to 2.6%)70%662,238 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)7.968.16 (8.03 to 8.28)5%1286 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate62.6%67.7% (62.1% to 73.3%)44%986 tenpai hands
Dama rate12.3%12.8% (8.0% to 17.5%)57%6681 wins
Riichi income2,3052,563 (1,837 to 3,288)19%3587 riichi
Riichi win rate43.7%45.2% (39.5% to 51.0%)33%4187 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A14.9%14.3% (12.5% to 16.2%)3%4687 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B11.5%11.1% (8.6% to 13.5%)9%4987 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate47.1%49.2% (43.8% to 54.5%)23%3587 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate23.0%20.2% (15.9% to 24.6%)26%8987 riichi
Call income1,141587 (186 to 988)15%94108 calls
Win rate after calling30.6%30.0% (25.4% to 34.7%)30%49108 calls
Deal-in rate after calling9.3%10.8% (7.6% to 14.1%)30%89108 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)+0.0594413 hands
Dora and red fives dealt-0.0152413 hands
Draw luck+0.3%664,971 tile draws
Ura-dora luck-0.082638 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate+3.9%8338 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+3.6%8369 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate6.5%100107 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)+2.06933 games
Hand balance breakdown
CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi9.2%+744+919-175
Wins with calls8.0%+526+382+143
Dama wins2.4%+101+173-72
Deal-ins to riichi6.3%-436-360-76
Deal-ins to open hands3.4%-148-203+55
Deal-ins to dama1.0%-54-101+47
Others' tsumo25.9%-708-752+44
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)43.8%-7-60+52
Total (per hand)+18
2023-24 (28 games · skill estimate 0.6pt/game)

Style

  • Average win value6,530
  • Riichi rate21.2%
  • Deal-in rate10.5%
  • Win rate20.4%
  • First riichi rate75.1%
  • Average riichi turn9.34
  • Call rate26.3%
  • Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws36.3%
  • Staying in vs riichi14.0%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)40.0%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)27.3%
  • Tile efficiency match rate74.4%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.17
  • Immediate riichi rate69.0%
  • Dama rate18.1%

Where the points came from

  • Own wins+46.3
  • Deal-ins-16.3
  • Others' tsumo-25.8
  • Ron between others+0.6
  • Exhaustive draws-1.5
Change in expected points per game. Total +3.3pt/game (28 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins72+1297.8+46.3
Deal-ins31-456.6-16.3
Others' tsumo99-722.6-25.8
Ron between others68+16.4+0.6
Exhaustive draws68-41.6-1.5

Luck

  • Points from luck (/game)-5.1
  • Draw luck+0.5%
  • Starting hand (shanten)-0.06
  • Dora and red fives dealt-0.07
  • Ura-dora luck+0.12
  • Ippatsu rate+0.3%
  • Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+8.3%
  • Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate8.1%
Every number for 2023-24
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.392.48 (2.29 to 2.67)16%7528 games
Points per game3.30.6 (-7.3 to 8.4)17%7228 games
Points per game, luck removed8.41.9 (-5.3 to 9.0)22%8928 games
1st-place rate32.1%26.3% (18.7% to 34.0%)18%8028 games
4th-place rate25.0%24.9% (17.2% to 32.7%)19%4628 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate21.3%20.4% (18.1% to 22.7%)30%77338 hands
Deal-in rate9.2%10.5% (8.7% to 12.2%)26%80338 hands
Riichi rate17.8%21.2% (18.7% to 23.6%)31%1338 hands
Call rate26.9%26.3% (22.8% to 29.7%)84%80338 hands
First riichi rate68.3%75.1% (70.6% to 79.6%)12%1560 riichi
Average riichi turn9.359.34 (8.91 to 9.77)26%4160 riichi
Average win value6,3246,530 (6,001 to 7,060)23%2972 wins
Average deal-in value5,8165,644 (5,102 to 6,185)10%3531 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,5451,477 (1,374 to 1,580)4%66338 hands
Deal-in loss546627 (524 to 730)13%83338 hands
Net efficiency999859 (646 to 1,072)15%80338 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)38.2%40.0% (34.1% to 46.0%)30%1876 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)29.7%27.3% (21.1% to 33.4%)41%7564 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call18.7%21.5% (15.6% to 27.4%)60%1891 first calls
Average win turn11.9412.37 (12.23 to 12.52)2%8672 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws26.5%36.3% (30.1% to 42.5%)27%168 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi13.1%14.0% (12.2% to 15.8%)9%43199 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate74.7%74.4% (72.8% to 76.0%)84%581,777 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)0.960.99 (0.89 to 1.09)74%321,703 discards
Breaking shape for value1.0%1.4% (0.9% to 1.8%)65%41,777 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.188.17 (8.04 to 8.30)4%6362 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate64.3%69.0% (62.8% to 75.3%)36%1262 tenpai hands
Dama rate22.2%18.1% (13.2% to 23.1%)54%9772 wins
Riichi income2,4632,601 (1,805 to 3,397)14%4660 riichi
Riichi win rate50.0%47.0% (40.4% to 53.6%)26%7260 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A13.3%14.3% (12.4% to 16.2%)2%6360 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B10.0%11.0% (8.4% to 13.6%)6%6060 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate48.3%49.5% (43.6% to 55.4%)17%4160 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate13.3%18.1% (13.2% to 23.0%)20%2260 riichi
Call income384473 (55.49 to 890)13%5291 calls
Win rate after calling28.6%29.5% (24.6% to 34.4%)26%4891 calls
Deal-in rate after calling9.9%11.1% (7.7% to 14.5%)26%7291 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)-0.067338 hands
Dora and red fives dealt-0.079338 hands
Draw luck+0.5%894,014 tile draws
Ura-dora luck+0.128030 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate+0.3%5830 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+8.3%9241 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate8.1%9799 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)-5.11228 games
Hand balance breakdown
CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi8.9%+740+919-179
Wins with calls7.7%+410+382+28
Dama wins4.7%+394+173+221
Deal-ins to riichi5.0%-366-360-6
Deal-ins to open hands2.4%-87-203+116
Deal-ins to dama1.8%-110-101-9
Others' tsumo29.3%-868-752-115
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)40.2%-105-60-45
Total (per hand)+8
2022-23 (27 games · skill estimate -0.8pt/game)

Style

  • Average win value6,588
  • Riichi rate22.0%
  • Deal-in rate11.2%
  • Win rate20.0%
  • First riichi rate76.5%
  • Average riichi turn9.25
  • Call rate23.5%
  • Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws43.3%
  • Staying in vs riichi14.0%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)37.8%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)24.8%
  • Tile efficiency match rate72.9%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.16
  • Immediate riichi rate71.0%
  • Dama rate13.5%

Where the points came from

  • Own wins+47.0
  • Deal-ins-23.8
  • Others' tsumo-27.0
  • Ron between others-3.0
  • Exhaustive draws+2.2
Change in expected points per game. Total -4.5pt/game (27 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins66+1269.9+47.0
Deal-ins39-642.3-23.8
Others' tsumo99-727.9-27.0
Ron between others72-81.9-3.0
Exhaustive draws51+59.5+2.2

Luck

  • Points from luck (/game)-4.8
  • Draw luck-0.3%
  • Starting hand (shanten)-0.05
  • Dora and red fives dealt+0.06
  • Ura-dora luck-0.09
  • Ippatsu rate-3.6%
  • Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+0.8%
  • Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate11.1%
Every number for 2022-23
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.672.52 (2.33 to 2.72)16%2327 games
Points per game-4.6-0.8 (-8.7 to 7.2)17%3027 games
Points per game, luck removed0.20.0 (-7.2 to 7.3)22%5827 games
1st-place rate25.9%25.2% (17.5% to 32.9%)17%5827 games
4th-place rate37.0%27.1% (19.3% to 34.9%)18%427 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate20.2%20.0% (17.7% to 22.4%)29%58327 hands
Deal-in rate11.9%11.2% (9.4% to 12.9%)26%17327 hands
Riichi rate20.2%22.0% (19.5% to 24.4%)31%17327 hands
Call rate23.5%23.5% (20.0% to 26.9%)83%68327 hands
First riichi rate80.3%76.5% (72.1% to 81.0%)13%7866 riichi
Average riichi turn9.039.25 (8.83 to 9.67)28%7866 riichi
Average win value6,5806,588 (6,044 to 7,132)21%3666 wins
Average deal-in value6,7315,755 (5,236 to 6,274)12%739 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,4631,474 (1,370 to 1,577)4%39327 hands
Deal-in loss824662 (558 to 766)12%4327 hands
Net efficiency639808 (593 to 1,022)14%20327 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)28.1%37.8% (31.2% to 44.3%)24%457 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)23.7%24.8% (18.5% to 31.2%)39%4459 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call19.5%22.2% (16.0% to 28.4%)56%1177 first calls
Average win turn12.8012.39 (12.24 to 12.53)2%1166 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws54.9%43.3% (36.5% to 50.1%)22%10051 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi13.1%14.0% (12.1% to 15.9%)7%35160 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate72.9%72.9% (71.3% to 74.5%)84%651,797 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)1.131.11 (1.01 to 1.21)74%651,716 discards
Breaking shape for value1.6%1.8% (1.3% to 2.2%)65%201,797 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)7.998.16 (8.03 to 8.29)4%2066 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate70.0%71.0% (64.9% to 77.1%)37%4366 tenpai hands
Dama rate13.6%13.5% (8.4% to 18.6%)52%5266 wins
Riichi income3,0522,688 (1,909 to 3,467)15%6566 riichi
Riichi win rate47.0%46.3% (39.9% to 52.6%)27%6066 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A10.6%14.2% (12.3% to 16.1%)2%8166 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B10.6%11.0% (8.4% to 13.6%)7%3666 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate56.1%50.9% (45.1% to 56.6%)18%7866 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate21.2%19.7% (14.9% to 24.4%)21%5566 riichi
Call income123445 (13.10 to 877)11%1177 calls
Win rate after calling33.8%30.7% (25.5% to 35.9%)23%7477 calls
Deal-in rate after calling18.2%13.1% (9.4% to 16.7%)23%177 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)-0.0514327 hands
Dora and red fives dealt+0.0687327 hands
Draw luck-0.3%303,902 tile draws
Ura-dora luck-0.092031 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate-3.6%3931 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+0.8%4953 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate11.1%4999 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)-4.82327 games
Hand balance breakdown
CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi9.5%+869+919-50
Wins with calls8.0%+458+382+76
Dama wins2.8%+135+173-38
Deal-ins to riichi4.0%-284-360+76
Deal-ins to open hands4.9%-325-203-122
Deal-ins to dama3.1%-236-101-135
Others' tsumo30.3%-742-752+11
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)37.6%-2-60+58
Total (per hand)-126
2021-22 (30 games · skill estimate 1.1pt/game)

Style

  • Average win value6,510
  • Riichi rate21.7%
  • Deal-in rate10.7%
  • Win rate20.7%
  • First riichi rate76.8%
  • Average riichi turn9.36
  • Call rate25.3%
  • Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws42.4%
  • Staying in vs riichi13.9%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)41.5%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)26.1%
  • Tile efficiency match rate72.1%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.16
  • Immediate riichi rate70.7%
  • Dama rate13.1%

Where the points came from

  • Own wins+49.6
  • Deal-ins-21.3
  • Others' tsumo-22.2
  • Ron between others-1.9
  • Exhaustive draws+1.8
Change in expected points per game. Total +5.9pt/game (30 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins77+1487.7+49.6
Deal-ins34-638.9-21.3
Others' tsumo100-667.0-22.2
Ron between others70-56.9-1.9
Exhaustive draws61+53.0+1.8

Luck

  • Points from luck (/game)-0.8
  • Draw luck+0.7%
  • Starting hand (shanten)-0.03
  • Dora and red fives dealt+0.05
  • Ura-dora luck-0.09
  • Ippatsu rate+2.5%
  • Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)-0.1%
  • Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate17.0%
Every number for 2021-22
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.302.46 (2.28 to 2.65)17%8130 games
Points per game6.01.1 (-6.6 to 8.8)18%7430 games
Points per game, luck removed6.71.6 (-5.4 to 8.6)23%8130 games
1st-place rate30.0%26.0% (18.5% to 33.5%)19%7130 games
4th-place rate13.3%22.6% (15.0% to 30.2%)20%9030 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate22.5%20.7% (18.5% to 23.0%)30%90342 hands
Deal-in rate9.9%10.7% (8.9% to 12.4%)27%71342 hands
Riichi rate19.6%21.7% (19.3% to 24.2%)32%23342 hands
Call rate25.7%25.3% (21.9% to 28.7%)84%87342 hands
First riichi rate82.1%76.8% (72.4% to 81.2%)13%8467 riichi
Average riichi turn9.439.36 (8.95 to 9.78)28%5567 riichi
Average win value6,2536,510 (5,992 to 7,029)24%1777 wins
Average deal-in value6,4975,716 (5,183 to 6,249)10%434 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,5751,478 (1,375 to 1,581)4%71342 hands
Deal-in loss662642 (539 to 745)13%27342 hands
Net efficiency913847 (635 to 1,059)15%62342 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)43.6%41.5% (34.9% to 48.1%)23%6855 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)26.9%26.1% (20.0% to 32.2%)43%7467 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call26.1%25.9% (20.0% to 31.9%)59%3988 first calls
Average win turn12.5212.38 (12.24 to 12.53)2%5577 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws49.2%42.4% (35.9% to 48.8%)25%9461 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi12.2%13.9% (12.1% to 15.8%)8%30172 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate71.9%72.1% (70.5% to 73.6%)85%431,852 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)1.041.04 (0.95 to 1.14)75%331,768 discards
Breaking shape for value2.3%2.2% (1.8% to 2.7%)66%711,852 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.048.16 (8.03 to 8.29)4%1767 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate69.1%70.7% (64.6% to 76.7%)38%2767 tenpai hands
Dama rate13.0%13.1% (8.3% to 18.0%)55%3677 wins
Riichi income3,7362,793 (2,017 to 3,569)15%7867 riichi
Riichi win rate53.7%48.1% (41.8% to 54.5%)28%7167 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A11.9%14.3% (12.4% to 16.2%)3%5567 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B7.5%10.8% (8.2% to 13.4%)7%6867 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate49.3%49.7% (43.9% to 55.4%)18%4767 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate22.4%19.9% (15.2% to 24.7%)22%6267 riichi
Call income425479 (58.27 to 899)13%5288 calls
Win rate after calling35.2%31.2% (26.2% to 36.2%)26%8488 calls
Deal-in rate after calling13.6%12.1% (8.6% to 15.5%)26%2088 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)-0.0327342 hands
Dora and red fives dealt+0.0581342 hands
Draw luck+0.7%844,159 tile draws
Ura-dora luck-0.092336 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate+2.5%6236 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)-0.1%3655 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate17.0%27100 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)-0.85530 games
Hand balance breakdown
CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi10.5%+892+919-27
Wins with calls9.1%+514+382+132
Dama wins2.9%+169+173-4
Deal-ins to riichi5.0%-407-360-47
Deal-ins to open hands4.4%-243-203-40
Deal-ins to dama0.6%-27-101+74
Others' tsumo29.2%-737-752+15
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)38.3%-19-60+41
Total (per hand)+143
2020-21 (28 games · skill estimate 1.7pt/game)

Style

  • Average win value6,747
  • Riichi rate22.1%
  • Deal-in rate10.4%
  • Win rate20.3%
  • First riichi rate77.0%
  • Average riichi turn9.44
  • Call rate26.2%
  • Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws37.4%
  • Staying in vs riichi13.8%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)39.8%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)25.0%
  • Tile efficiency match rate71.5%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.17
  • Immediate riichi rate74.2%
  • Dama rate11.1%

Where the points came from

  • Own wins+48.6
  • Deal-ins-14.0
  • Others' tsumo-23.0
  • Ron between others-0.6
  • Exhaustive draws-0.6
Change in expected points per game. Total +10.4pt/game (28 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins66+1361.1+48.6
Deal-ins28-393.4-14.0
Others' tsumo93-644.0-23.0
Ron between others76-17.5-0.6
Exhaustive draws50-15.7-0.6

Luck

  • Points from luck (/game)+0.8
  • Draw luck-0.7%
  • Starting hand (shanten)-0.04
  • Dora and red fives dealt+0.02
  • Ura-dora luck-0.22
  • Ippatsu rate+3.9%
  • Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+10.5%
  • Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate8.6%
Every number for 2020-21
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.212.45 (2.26 to 2.64)16%9028 games
Points per game9.81.7 (-6.2 to 9.5)17%9028 games
Points per game, luck removed9.12.0 (-5.1 to 9.2)22%9328 games
1st-place rate32.1%26.3% (18.7% to 34.0%)18%8628 games
4th-place rate17.9%23.6% (15.8% to 31.3%)19%8328 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate21.1%20.3% (17.9% to 22.7%)28%76313 hands
Deal-in rate8.9%10.4% (8.6% to 12.2%)25%93313 hands
Riichi rate20.4%22.1% (19.6% to 24.6%)30%32313 hands
Call rate26.8%26.2% (22.6% to 29.7%)83%86313 hands
First riichi rate84.4%77.0% (72.6% to 81.5%)12%9364 riichi
Average riichi turn9.709.44 (9.02 to 9.86)27%2864 riichi
Average win value7,3356,747 (6,203 to 7,291)21%9066 wins
Average deal-in value5,4575,611 (5,060 to 6,162)9%6228 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,6851,482 (1,378 to 1,585)4%83313 hands
Deal-in loss507623 (518 to 728)12%90313 hands
Net efficiency1,178882 (666 to 1,098)14%86313 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)36.9%39.8% (33.5% to 46.1%)26%3965 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)24.1%25.0% (18.4% to 31.6%)37%5654 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call23.8%24.6% (18.5% to 30.6%)58%2584 first calls
Average win turn12.9512.39 (12.24 to 12.54)2%1566 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws28.0%37.4% (30.6% to 44.2%)22%1850 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi10.4%13.8% (11.9% to 15.7%)7%8163 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate71.2%71.5% (69.9% to 73.1%)84%421,744 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)1.191.16 (1.06 to 1.26)74%691,663 discards
Breaking shape for value2.0%2.0% (1.6% to 2.5%)65%521,744 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.148.17 (8.04 to 8.30)3%3956 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate79.2%74.2% (67.7% to 80.7%)33%8356 tenpai hands
Dama rate9.1%11.1% (6.1% to 16.2%)52%1166 wins
Riichi income4,0942,839 (2,055 to 3,624)15%9764 riichi
Riichi win rate59.4%49.6% (43.2% to 56.0%)27%9764 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A14.1%14.3% (12.4% to 16.2%)2%6264 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B9.4%10.9% (8.3% to 13.5%)7%7664 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate53.1%50.3% (44.5% to 56.1%)18%7364 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate7.8%16.9% (12.1% to 21.7%)21%164 riichi
Call income490487 (62.61 to 911)12%5284 calls
Win rate after calling26.2%28.9% (23.8% to 34.0%)25%1884 calls
Deal-in rate after calling13.1%11.9% (8.4% to 15.4%)25%3284 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)-0.0415313 hands
Dora and red fives dealt+0.0259313 hands
Draw luck-0.7%183,834 tile draws
Ura-dora luck-0.22438 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate+3.9%8038 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+10.5%10054 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate8.6%8093 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)+0.86628 games
Hand balance breakdown
CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi12.1%+1,124+919+205
Wins with calls7.0%+408+382+26
Dama wins1.9%+153+173-20
Deal-ins to riichi2.9%-219-360+141
Deal-ins to open hands4.2%-215-203-12
Deal-ins to dama1.9%-93-101+8
Others' tsumo29.7%-865-752-112
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)40.3%-56-60+4
Total (per hand)+238

Players with a similar styleclosest career style metrics first

  1. Sho ShiratoriShibuya ABEMASIn common: Riichis rarely, First riichi often
  2. Yoshihiro MatsumotoShibuya ABEMAS
  3. Kei NakabayashiU-NEXT PiratesIn common: Few deal-ins, First riichi often

* Twelve style metrics, including call rate, riichi rate, win rate, deal-in rate, hand value, riichi speed and immediate riichi rate, are put on the same scale and compared; the players closest overall are listed. Metrics supported more strongly by the data receive more weight. The comparison shows how similar the players' styles are, not which is better. Differences are often small, so the order may change.