Player · 153 career games · 2022-23–2026-27
Kei Nakabayashi
Uses calls a lot to move hands along. Stands out for being tenpai at draws. Career record: +4.2pt per game, but allowing for luck the difference from average is not clear yet.
Actual / game
+4.2
153 career games
Skill estimate / game
+2.2
90% interval -2.3 to +6.7
Estimate, luck removed
+1.1
adjusted for starting hands, draws, ura-dora
Weight of the record
53%
share of the estimate from the record
Styleleague percentile, career
Color only for metrics with a good side (red = good, blue = bad). Metrics of style, such as riichi rate, call rate and tile efficiency match rate, are gray. For tenpai turn, further right means later (a larger turn number). Values are estimates.
Placements153 career games, average placement 2.35
- 1st26.8%41×
- 2nd32.0%49×
- 3rd20.3%31×
- 4th20.9%32×
Riichi and callsbalance and outcome of hands with riichi or calls
Income is the average points won or lost in those hands (riichi sticks and honba included).
Net efficiency and morecalculated as on Mahjong Soul Paifuya, per hand
Deal-in loss = deal-in rate × average deal-in; net efficiency = win rate × average win − deal-in loss. Win and deal-in values include honba and riichi sticks. Win turn is the number of tiles discarded at the table when the win came ÷ 4 + 1. Win efficiency (win rate × average win) is not shown: players with a high win rate win smaller hands, the two cancel out, and differences between players cannot be told apart from chance.
Skill estimateleague percentile of the estimates
Luckfurther right is luckier; values are differences from the league average (the dealer tsumo rate is the rate itself)
Where the points came fromchange in expected points, all stages
As a table
| Hand result | Hands | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Own wins | 389 | +7588.8 | +49.6 |
| Deal-ins | 197 | -3087.7 | -20.2 |
| Others' tsumo | 502 | -3573.7 | -23.4 |
| Ron between others | 446 | -385.3 | -2.5 |
| Exhaustive draws | 411 | +105.6 | +0.7 |
Hand balance breakdownpoints won or lost per hand, all stages
| Category | Frequency | Balance per hand | League average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins with riichi | 10.3% | +920 | +919 | +1 |
| Wins with calls | 7.4% | +396 | +382 | +14 |
| Dama wins | 2.4% | +154 | +173 | -19 |
| Deal-ins to riichi | 4.7% | -338 | -360 | +22 |
| Deal-ins to open hands | 3.9% | -180 | -203 | +23 |
| Deal-ins to dama | 1.5% | -121 | -101 | -20 |
| Others' tsumo | 25.8% | -725 | -752 | +28 |
| Other (exhaustive draws, etc.) | 44.1% | -38 | -60 | +21 |
| Total (per hand) | +68 |
Every career number (estimate, 90% interval, weight of the record)
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average placement | 2.35 | 2.42 (2.31 to 2.53) | 51% | 94 | 153 games |
| Points per game | 4.2 | 2.2 (-2.3 to 6.7) | 53% | 90 | 153 games |
| Points per game, luck removed | 1.7 | 1.1 (-3.0 to 5.1) | 61% | 72 | 153 games |
| 1st-place rate | 26.8% | 26.0% (21.7% to 30.3%) | 54% | 62 | 153 games |
| 4th-place rate | 20.9% | 22.7% (18.3% to 27.1%) | 56% | 90 | 153 games |
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 20.0% | 20.0% (18.7% to 21.3%) | 71% | 58 | 1,945 hands |
| Deal-in rate | 10.1% | 10.4% (9.4% to 11.3%) | 67% | 80 | 1,945 hands |
| Riichi rate | 22.5% | 22.6% (21.2% to 23.9%) | 72% | 43 | 1,945 hands |
| Call rate | 28.0% | 27.8% (26.3% to 29.3%) | 97% | 88 | 1,945 hands |
| First riichi rate | 77.9% | 76.9% (74.5% to 79.4%) | 49% | 82 | 438 riichi |
| Average riichi turn | 9.16 | 9.21 (8.99 to 9.43) | 72% | 74 | 438 riichi |
| Average win value | 6,470 | 6,517 (6,219 to 6,815) | 61% | 31 | 389 wins |
| Average deal-in value | 5,843 | 5,713 (5,395 to 6,031) | 40% | 21 | 197 deal-ins |
| Win efficiency | 1,470 | 1,473 (1,396 to 1,550) | 18% | 49 | 1,945 hands |
| Deal-in loss | 618 | 629 (570 to 689) | 46% | 66 | 1,945 hands |
| Net efficiency | 852 | 843 (722 to 964) | 49% | 66 | 1,945 hands |
| Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten) | 42.2% | 41.8% (38.2% to 45.3%) | 66% | 68 | 348 hands facing riichi |
| Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten) | 30.2% | 29.2% (25.7% to 32.7%) | 79% | 82 | 338 hands facing riichi |
| Tenpai rate after the first call | 21.3% | 21.8% (18.8% to 24.7%) | 90% | 11 | 544 first calls |
| Average win turn | 12.01 | 12.35 (12.22 to 12.47) | 9% | 96 | 389 wins |
| Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws | 43.8% | 42.7% (39.3% to 46.0%) | 70% | 88 | 411 exhaustive draws |
| Staying in vs riichi | 14.0% | 14.0% (12.9% to 15.2%) | 33% | 54 | 1,001 hands facing an opponent’s riichi |
| Tile efficiency match rate | 75.1% | 75.0% (74.3% to 75.7%) | 97% | 80 | 10,488 discards |
| Average ukeire loss (tiles) | 0.97 | 0.97 (0.93 to 1.02) | 94% | 19 | 10,178 discards |
| Breaking shape for value | 1.7% | 1.7% (1.5% to 1.9%) | 92% | 15 | 10,488 discards |
| Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted) | 8.05 | 8.14 (8.05 to 8.24) | 21% | 13 | 425 tenpai hands |
| Immediate riichi rate | 70.1% | 70.4% (67.2% to 73.6%) | 79% | 35 | 425 tenpai hands |
| Dama rate | 11.8% | 12.0% (9.4% to 14.7%) | 86% | 39 | 389 wins |
| Riichi income | 2,789 | 2,713 (2,291 to 3,134) | 54% | 72 | 438 riichi |
| Riichi win rate | 45.7% | 45.8% (42.4% to 49.1%) | 71% | 47 | 438 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate A | 12.8% | 14.1% (12.6% to 15.6%) | 14% | 84 | 438 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate B | 9.1% | 10.4% (8.8% to 12.0%) | 32% | 90 | 438 riichi |
| Riichi good-wait rate | 53.7% | 52.1% (49.0% to 55.1%) | 59% | 90 | 438 riichi |
| Riichi exhaustive draw rate | 21.0% | 20.4% (17.9% to 22.9%) | 64% | 80 | 438 riichi |
| Call income | 283 | 389 (152 to 626) | 48% | 17 | 544 calls |
| Win rate after calling | 26.3% | 27.4% (24.7% to 30.1%) | 68% | 9 | 544 calls |
| Deal-in rate after calling | 10.5% | 10.8% (8.9% to 12.7%) | 68% | 80 | 544 calls |
| Metric | Actual | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starting hand (shanten) | +0.02 | 90 | 1,945 hands |
| Dora and red fives dealt | -0.00 | 47 | 1,945 hands |
| Draw luck | -0.3% | 13 | 23,625 tile draws |
| Ura-dora luck | +0.08 | 90 | 200 riichi wins |
| Ippatsu rate | -1.2% | 31 | 200 riichi wins |
| Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | +0.1% | 49 | 341 first riichi |
| Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate | 12.0% | 60 | 502 tsumo against |
| Points from luck (/game) | +2.4 | 92 | 153 games |
By seasonRegular Season
2026-27 (16 games · skill estimate 0.3pt/game)
Style
Where the points came from
As a table
| Hand result | Hands | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Own wins | 38 | +670.5 | +41.9 |
| Deal-ins | 23 | -326.0 | -20.4 |
| Others' tsumo | 55 | -312.1 | -19.5 |
| Ron between others | 42 | -38.9 | -2.4 |
| Exhaustive draws | 47 | +59.3 | +3.7 |
Luck
Every number for 2026-27
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average placement | 2.38 | 2.49 (2.27 to 2.70) | 10% | 71 | 16 games |
| Points per game | 3.1 | 0.3 (-8.5 to 9.2) | 11% | 68 | 16 games |
| Points per game, luck removed | -2.5 | -0.3 (-8.6 to 7.9) | 14% | 52 | 16 games |
| 1st-place rate | 31.3% | 25.7% (17.1% to 34.4%) | 11% | 76 | 16 games |
| 4th-place rate | 25.0% | 24.9% (16.1% to 33.7%) | 12% | 46 | 16 games |
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 18.5% | 19.7% (17.0% to 22.4%) | 21% | 38 | 205 hands |
| Deal-in rate | 11.2% | 11.0% (8.9% to 13.0%) | 18% | 41 | 205 hands |
| Riichi rate | 23.9% | 23.0% (20.1% to 25.9%) | 22% | 60 | 205 hands |
| Call rate | 28.8% | 27.4% (23.2% to 31.6%) | 76% | 79 | 205 hands |
| First riichi rate | 77.6% | 76.2% (71.5% to 80.8%) | 10% | 63 | 49 riichi |
| Average riichi turn | 9.12 | 9.29 (8.83 to 9.75) | 22% | 52 | 49 riichi |
| Average win value | 5,597 | 6,458 (5,832 to 7,084) | 13% | 17 | 38 wins |
| Average deal-in value | 4,991 | 5,580 (5,013 to 6,147) | 7% | 81 | 23 deal-ins |
| Win efficiency | 1,177 | 1,467 (1,360 to 1,574) | 2% | 12 | 205 hands |
| Deal-in loss | 608 | 636 (524 to 749) | 8% | 55 | 205 hands |
| Net efficiency | 569 | 810 (576 to 1,045) | 9% | 22 | 205 hands |
| Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten) | 48.8% | 42.4% (35.2% to 49.5%) | 19% | 81 | 43 hands facing riichi |
| Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten) | 32.1% | 27.1% (18.8% to 35.4%) | 24% | 76 | 28 hands facing riichi |
| Tenpai rate after the first call | 20.3% | 23.1% (16.3% to 29.8%) | 49% | 28 | 59 first calls |
| Average win turn | 10.84 | 12.37 (12.21 to 12.52) | 1% | 100 | 38 wins |
| Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws | 51.1% | 42.3% (35.4% to 49.3%) | 21% | 89 | 47 exhaustive draws |
| Staying in vs riichi | 15.8% | 14.2% (12.2% to 16.2%) | 5% | 60 | 101 hands facing an opponent’s riichi |
| Tile efficiency match rate | 74.1% | 73.8% (71.9% to 75.7%) | 78% | 55 | 1,176 discards |
| Average ukeire loss (tiles) | 1.11 | 1.10 (0.98 to 1.21) | 66% | 81 | 1,136 discards |
| Breaking shape for value | 2.1% | 2.1% (1.6% to 2.6%) | 55% | 63 | 1,176 discards |
| Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted) | 7.88 | 8.16 (8.03 to 8.29) | 3% | 22 | 45 tenpai hands |
| Immediate riichi rate | 69.6% | 71.1% (64.0% to 78.1%) | 29% | 41 | 45 tenpai hands |
| Dama rate | 7.9% | 11.3% (5.1% to 17.4%) | 38% | 41 | 38 wins |
| Riichi income | 2,861 | 2,651 (1,820 to 3,481) | 12% | 68 | 49 riichi |
| Riichi win rate | 44.9% | 45.8% (38.7% to 52.8%) | 22% | 49 | 49 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate A | 12.2% | 14.3% (12.4% to 16.2%) | 2% | 73 | 49 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate B | 8.2% | 10.9% (8.2% to 13.6%) | 5% | 73 | 49 riichi |
| Riichi good-wait rate | 49.0% | 49.6% (43.4% to 55.8%) | 14% | 46 | 49 riichi |
| Riichi exhaustive draw rate | 18.4% | 19.1% (13.9% to 24.3%) | 17% | 38 | 49 riichi |
| Call income | 119 | 453 (0.43 to 906) | 9% | 25 | 59 calls |
| Win rate after calling | 22.0% | 28.3% (22.7% to 34.0%) | 19% | 6 | 59 calls |
| Deal-in rate after calling | 8.5% | 10.9% (7.0% to 14.9%) | 19% | 68 | 59 calls |
| Metric | Actual | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starting hand (shanten) | +0.10 | 100 | 205 hands |
| Dora and red fives dealt | +0.01 | 60 | 205 hands |
| Draw luck | -0.5% | 28 | 2,480 tile draws |
| Ura-dora luck | +0.16 | 71 | 22 riichi wins |
| Ippatsu rate | -1.6% | 44 | 22 riichi wins |
| Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | -3.6% | 33 | 38 first riichi |
| Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate | 9.1% | 71 | 55 tsumo against |
| Points from luck (/game) | +5.6 | 79 | 16 games |
| Category | Frequency | Balance per hand | League average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins with riichi | 10.7% | +863 | +919 | -56 |
| Wins with calls | 6.3% | +255 | +382 | -127 |
| Dama wins | 1.5% | +59 | +173 | -114 |
| Deal-ins to riichi | 4.4% | -364 | -360 | -4 |
| Deal-ins to open hands | 5.4% | -173 | -203 | +30 |
| Deal-ins to dama | 1.5% | -91 | -101 | +10 |
| Others' tsumo | 26.8% | -621 | -752 | +131 |
| Other (exhaustive draws, etc.) | 43.4% | +24 | -60 | +84 |
| Total (per hand) | -47 |
2025-26 (32 games · skill estimate -1.3pt/game)
Style
Where the points came from
As a table
| Hand result | Hands | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Own wins | 70 | +1408.0 | +44.0 |
| Deal-ins | 53 | -708.9 | -22.2 |
| Others' tsumo | 120 | -854.5 | -26.7 |
| Ron between others | 91 | -82.8 | -2.6 |
| Exhaustive draws | 78 | +16.8 | +0.5 |
Luck
Every number for 2025-26
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average placement | 2.59 | 2.51 (2.33 to 2.70) | 18% | 42 | 32 games |
| Points per game | -6.9 | -1.3 (-8.9 to 6.3) | 19% | 19 | 32 games |
| Points per game, luck removed | -1.9 | -0.5 (-7.3 to 6.4) | 25% | 47 | 32 games |
| 1st-place rate | 12.5% | 22.6% (15.2% to 29.9%) | 20% | 9 | 32 games |
| 4th-place rate | 28.1% | 25.6% (18.1% to 33.0%) | 21% | 34 | 32 games |
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 17.0% | 19.0% (16.8% to 21.1%) | 34% | 6 | 412 hands |
| Deal-in rate | 12.9% | 11.5% (9.9% to 13.1%) | 31% | 19 | 412 hands |
| Riichi rate | 22.3% | 22.6% (20.3% to 24.9%) | 36% | 37 | 412 hands |
| Call rate | 25.7% | 25.3% (22.2% to 28.5%) | 86% | 54 | 412 hands |
| First riichi rate | 76.1% | 76.0% (71.9% to 80.1%) | 17% | 59 | 92 riichi |
| Average riichi turn | 9.88 | 9.53 (9.16 to 9.90) | 35% | 1 | 92 riichi |
| Average win value | 7,094 | 6,701 (6,167 to 7,236) | 22% | 85 | 70 wins |
| Average deal-in value | 5,392 | 5,590 (5,104 to 6,076) | 15% | 59 | 53 deal-ins |
| Win efficiency | 1,360 | 1,469 (1,368 to 1,570) | 5% | 19 | 412 hands |
| Deal-in loss | 720 | 651 (553 to 750) | 15% | 31 | 412 hands |
| Net efficiency | 640 | 802 (599 to 1,004) | 17% | 21 | 412 hands |
| Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten) | 38.2% | 40.0% (34.1% to 46.0%) | 30% | 31 | 76 hands facing riichi |
| Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten) | 27.5% | 26.5% (20.7% to 32.2%) | 47% | 54 | 80 hands facing riichi |
| Tenpai rate after the first call | 18.9% | 21.4% (15.8% to 27.0%) | 63% | 21 | 106 first calls |
| Average win turn | 12.74 | 12.39 (12.24 to 12.53) | 2% | 16 | 70 wins |
| Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws | 47.4% | 42.3% (36.4% to 48.2%) | 30% | 85 | 78 exhaustive draws |
| Staying in vs riichi | 10.8% | 13.7% (12.0% to 15.5%) | 10% | 11 | 222 hands facing an opponent’s riichi |
| Tile efficiency match rate | 75.6% | 75.3% (73.8% to 76.7%) | 87% | 67 | 2,313 discards |
| Average ukeire loss (tiles) | 0.94 | 0.97 (0.88 to 1.05) | 79% | 34 | 2,241 discards |
| Breaking shape for value | 1.3% | 1.5% (1.1% to 1.9%) | 71% | 9 | 2,313 discards |
| Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted) | 8.26 | 8.17 (8.05 to 8.30) | 4% | 90 | 76 tenpai hands |
| Immediate riichi rate | 74.8% | 72.9% (67.1% to 78.7%) | 41% | 59 | 76 tenpai hands |
| Dama rate | 8.6% | 10.8% (5.8% to 15.8%) | 53% | 39 | 70 wins |
| Riichi income | 2,115 | 2,522 (1,808 to 3,237) | 20% | 26 | 92 riichi |
| Riichi win rate | 40.2% | 44.0% (38.4% to 49.7%) | 34% | 9 | 92 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate A | 13.0% | 14.3% (12.4% to 16.1%) | 3% | 70 | 92 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate B | 6.5% | 10.6% (8.2% to 13.1%) | 9% | 97 | 92 riichi |
| Riichi good-wait rate | 44.6% | 48.5% (43.3% to 53.8%) | 24% | 26 | 92 riichi |
| Riichi exhaustive draw rate | 20.7% | 19.6% (15.4% to 23.9%) | 28% | 87 | 92 riichi |
| Call income | 445 | 480 (77.03 to 884) | 15% | 54 | 106 calls |
| Win rate after calling | 25.5% | 28.5% (23.9% to 33.2%) | 29% | 24 | 106 calls |
| Deal-in rate after calling | 13.2% | 12.0% (8.8% to 15.3%) | 29% | 39 | 106 calls |
| Metric | Actual | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starting hand (shanten) | -0.10 | 1 | 412 hands |
| Dora and red fives dealt | -0.04 | 26 | 412 hands |
| Draw luck | -0.7% | 14 | 5,066 tile draws |
| Ura-dora luck | +0.05 | 57 | 37 riichi wins |
| Ippatsu rate | -6.2% | 21 | 37 riichi wins |
| Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | +5.3% | 84 | 70 first riichi |
| Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate | 10.8% | 75 | 120 tsumo against |
| Points from luck (/game) | -4.9 | 19 | 32 games |
| Category | Frequency | Balance per hand | League average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins with riichi | 9.0% | +774 | +919 | -145 |
| Wins with calls | 6.6% | +413 | +382 | +31 |
| Dama wins | 1.5% | +173 | +173 | -0 |
| Deal-ins to riichi | 5.6% | -378 | -360 | -18 |
| Deal-ins to open hands | 5.3% | -235 | -203 | -32 |
| Deal-ins to dama | 1.9% | -121 | -101 | -20 |
| Others' tsumo | 29.1% | -808 | -752 | -56 |
| Other (exhaustive draws, etc.) | 41.0% | -11 | -60 | +49 |
| Total (per hand) | -194 |
2024-25 (27 games · skill estimate 1.6pt/game)
Style
Where the points came from
As a table
| Hand result | Hands | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Own wins | 69 | +1374.8 | +50.9 |
| Deal-ins | 31 | -425.6 | -15.8 |
| Others' tsumo | 79 | -613.7 | -22.7 |
| Ron between others | 89 | -58.8 | -2.2 |
| Exhaustive draws | 55 | -14.4 | -0.5 |
Luck
Every number for 2024-25
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average placement | 2.22 | 2.45 (2.26 to 2.65) | 16% | 86 | 27 games |
| Points per game | 9.5 | 1.6 (-6.3 to 9.5) | 17% | 80 | 27 games |
| Points per game, luck removed | 9.8 | 2.1 (-5.1 to 9.3) | 22% | 80 | 27 games |
| 1st-place rate | 29.6% | 25.9% (18.1% to 33.6%) | 17% | 63 | 27 games |
| 4th-place rate | 7.4% | 21.7% (13.9% to 29.5%) | 18% | 100 | 27 games |
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 21.4% | 20.4% (18.0% to 22.7%) | 29% | 63 | 323 hands |
| Deal-in rate | 9.6% | 10.6% (8.8% to 12.4%) | 26% | 86 | 323 hands |
| Riichi rate | 21.4% | 22.3% (19.9% to 24.8%) | 30% | 29 | 323 hands |
| Call rate | 26.9% | 26.3% (22.8% to 29.8%) | 83% | 63 | 323 hands |
| First riichi rate | 75.4% | 75.9% (71.5% to 80.3%) | 13% | 55 | 69 riichi |
| Average riichi turn | 9.03 | 9.25 (8.84 to 9.66) | 29% | 77 | 69 riichi |
| Average win value | 6,568 | 6,585 (6,049 to 7,122) | 22% | 75 | 69 wins |
| Average deal-in value | 5,248 | 5,590 (5,048 to 6,131) | 10% | 52 | 31 deal-ins |
| Win efficiency | 1,546 | 1,477 (1,373 to 1,580) | 4% | 66 | 323 hands |
| Deal-in loss | 523 | 625 (521 to 729) | 12% | 77 | 323 hands |
| Net efficiency | 1,023 | 862 (647 to 1,076) | 14% | 80 | 323 hands |
| Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten) | 46.0% | 42.0% (35.1% to 48.8%) | 22% | 58 | 50 hands facing riichi |
| Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten) | 31.6% | 27.9% (21.4% to 34.3%) | 39% | 75 | 57 hands facing riichi |
| Tenpai rate after the first call | 21.8% | 23.4% (17.4% to 29.4%) | 59% | 38 | 87 first calls |
| Average win turn | 12.36 | 12.38 (12.23 to 12.53) | 2% | 46 | 69 wins |
| Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws | 40.0% | 40.0% (33.4% to 46.6%) | 23% | 38 | 55 exhaustive draws |
| Staying in vs riichi | 14.0% | 14.1% (12.2% to 16.0%) | 7% | 46 | 157 hands facing an opponent’s riichi |
| Tile efficiency match rate | 74.0% | 73.8% (72.2% to 75.5%) | 83% | 41 | 1,682 discards |
| Average ukeire loss (tiles) | 1.12 | 1.10 (1.01 to 1.20) | 73% | 80 | 1,630 discards |
| Breaking shape for value | 2.1% | 2.1% (1.6% to 2.5%) | 64% | 49 | 1,682 discards |
| Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted) | 7.87 | 8.16 (8.03 to 8.28) | 4% | 7 | 66 tenpai hands |
| Immediate riichi rate | 69.0% | 70.7% (64.6% to 76.8%) | 37% | 29 | 66 tenpai hands |
| Dama rate | 14.5% | 13.9% (8.9% to 19.0%) | 53% | 80 | 69 wins |
| Riichi income | 3,399 | 2,744 (1,974 to 3,515) | 16% | 92 | 69 riichi |
| Riichi win rate | 55.1% | 48.6% (42.3% to 54.8%) | 28% | 94 | 69 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate A | 11.6% | 14.3% (12.4% to 16.1%) | 3% | 77 | 69 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate B | 7.2% | 10.8% (8.2% to 13.3%) | 7% | 86 | 69 riichi |
| Riichi good-wait rate | 49.3% | 49.7% (44.0% to 55.4%) | 19% | 52 | 69 riichi |
| Riichi exhaustive draw rate | 13.0% | 17.9% (13.2% to 22.6%) | 22% | 32 | 69 riichi |
| Call income | -302 | 386 (-35.38 to 807) | 13% | 4 | 87 calls |
| Win rate after calling | 24.1% | 28.4% (23.4% to 33.4%) | 25% | 12 | 87 calls |
| Deal-in rate after calling | 13.8% | 12.1% (8.6% to 15.6%) | 25% | 29 | 87 calls |
| Metric | Actual | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starting hand (shanten) | -0.03 | 41 | 323 hands |
| Dora and red fives dealt | -0.02 | 41 | 323 hands |
| Draw luck | -0.9% | 9 | 3,774 tile draws |
| Ura-dora luck | +0.10 | 86 | 38 riichi wins |
| Ippatsu rate | -6.6% | 12 | 38 riichi wins |
| Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | +2.3% | 66 | 52 first riichi |
| Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate | 20.3% | 1 | 79 tsumo against |
| Points from luck (/game) | -0.3 | 49 | 27 games |
| Category | Frequency | Balance per hand | League average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins with riichi | 11.8% | +963 | +919 | +44 |
| Wins with calls | 6.5% | +340 | +382 | -42 |
| Dama wins | 3.1% | +244 | +173 | +71 |
| Deal-ins to riichi | 5.0% | -339 | -360 | +21 |
| Deal-ins to open hands | 4.0% | -153 | -203 | +50 |
| Deal-ins to dama | 0.6% | -47 | -101 | +54 |
| Others' tsumo | 24.5% | -721 | -752 | +32 |
| Other (exhaustive draws, etc.) | 44.6% | -34 | -60 | +26 |
| Total (per hand) | +253 |
2023-24 (26 games · skill estimate 1.6pt/game)
Style
Where the points came from
As a table
| Hand result | Hands | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Own wins | 62 | +1265.2 | +48.7 |
| Deal-ins | 25 | -436.8 | -16.8 |
| Others' tsumo | 82 | -538.4 | -20.7 |
| Ron between others | 67 | -54.6 | -2.1 |
| Exhaustive draws | 77 | +30.5 | +1.2 |
Luck
Every number for 2023-24
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average placement | 2.15 | 2.45 (2.25 to 2.64) | 15% | 94 | 26 games |
| Points per game | 10.3 | 1.6 (-6.3 to 9.6) | 16% | 92 | 26 games |
| Points per game, luck removed | 5.3 | 1.1 (-6.2 to 8.4) | 21% | 75 | 26 games |
| 1st-place rate | 38.5% | 27.3% (19.5% to 35.1%) | 17% | 94 | 26 games |
| 4th-place rate | 19.2% | 23.9% (16.0% to 31.8%) | 18% | 82 | 26 games |
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 19.8% | 19.9% (17.6% to 22.3%) | 28% | 41 | 313 hands |
| Deal-in rate | 8.0% | 10.2% (8.4% to 12.0%) | 25% | 94 | 313 hands |
| Riichi rate | 23.6% | 23.0% (20.5% to 25.5%) | 30% | 58 | 313 hands |
| Call rate | 24.6% | 24.3% (20.8% to 27.9%) | 83% | 63 | 313 hands |
| First riichi rate | 75.7% | 76.0% (71.6% to 80.3%) | 14% | 49 | 74 riichi |
| Average riichi turn | 9.34 | 9.34 (8.94 to 9.74) | 30% | 52 | 74 riichi |
| Average win value | 6,094 | 6,491 (5,937 to 7,045) | 20% | 12 | 62 wins |
| Average deal-in value | 6,420 | 5,688 (5,127 to 6,248) | 8% | 21 | 25 deal-ins |
| Win efficiency | 1,396 | 1,471 (1,368 to 1,575) | 4% | 21 | 313 hands |
| Deal-in loss | 535 | 626 (522 to 731) | 12% | 86 | 313 hands |
| Net efficiency | 861 | 839 (622 to 1,055) | 14% | 55 | 313 hands |
| Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten) | 43.5% | 41.6% (35.4% to 47.7%) | 28% | 60 | 69 hands facing riichi |
| Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten) | 21.6% | 24.1% (17.4% to 30.8%) | 36% | 15 | 51 hands facing riichi |
| Tenpai rate after the first call | 26.0% | 25.8% (19.6% to 32.0%) | 56% | 58 | 77 first calls |
| Average win turn | 11.19 | 12.36 (12.21 to 12.51) | 1% | 100 | 62 wins |
| Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws | 48.1% | 42.4% (36.5% to 48.3%) | 30% | 97 | 77 exhaustive draws |
| Staying in vs riichi | 14.4% | 14.1% (12.2% to 16.0%) | 8% | 72 | 167 hands facing an opponent’s riichi |
| Tile efficiency match rate | 75.8% | 75.3% (73.7% to 76.9%) | 83% | 80 | 1,695 discards |
| Average ukeire loss (tiles) | 0.88 | 0.93 (0.83 to 1.03) | 73% | 12 | 1,649 discards |
| Breaking shape for value | 1.7% | 1.8% (1.3% to 2.2%) | 64% | 29 | 1,695 discards |
| Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted) | 8.10 | 8.16 (8.04 to 8.29) | 4% | 41 | 73 tenpai hands |
| Immediate riichi rate | 68.0% | 70.2% (64.3% to 76.1%) | 40% | 38 | 73 tenpai hands |
| Dama rate | 11.3% | 12.3% (7.1% to 17.5%) | 50% | 42 | 62 wins |
| Riichi income | 2,357 | 2,579 (1,821 to 3,336) | 17% | 32 | 74 riichi |
| Riichi win rate | 40.5% | 44.4% (38.3% to 50.5%) | 30% | 12 | 74 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate A | 13.5% | 14.3% (12.4% to 16.2%) | 3% | 67 | 74 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate B | 9.5% | 10.9% (8.4% to 13.4%) | 8% | 73 | 74 riichi |
| Riichi good-wait rate | 56.8% | 51.1% (45.5% to 56.7%) | 20% | 89 | 74 riichi |
| Riichi exhaustive draw rate | 33.8% | 22.7% (18.1% to 27.3%) | 23% | 100 | 74 riichi |
| Call income | 675 | 508 (76.33 to 940) | 11% | 63 | 77 calls |
| Win rate after calling | 32.5% | 30.4% (25.2% to 35.6%) | 23% | 77 | 77 calls |
| Deal-in rate after calling | 7.8% | 10.7% (7.0% to 14.3%) | 23% | 100 | 77 calls |
| Metric | Actual | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starting hand (shanten) | +0.12 | 100 | 313 hands |
| Dora and red fives dealt | +0.03 | 80 | 313 hands |
| Draw luck | -0.7% | 24 | 3,837 tile draws |
| Ura-dora luck | +0.06 | 69 | 30 riichi wins |
| Ippatsu rate | -3.1% | 32 | 30 riichi wins |
| Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | -5.0% | 34 | 56 first riichi |
| Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate | 11.0% | 52 | 82 tsumo against |
| Points from luck (/game) | +4.9 | 86 | 26 games |
| Category | Frequency | Balance per hand | League average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins with riichi | 9.6% | +895 | +919 | -24 |
| Wins with calls | 8.0% | +369 | +382 | -13 |
| Dama wins | 2.2% | +132 | +173 | -41 |
| Deal-ins to riichi | 3.5% | -256 | -360 | +104 |
| Deal-ins to open hands | 2.2% | -95 | -203 | +108 |
| Deal-ins to dama | 2.2% | -207 | -101 | -106 |
| Others' tsumo | 26.2% | -735 | -752 | +18 |
| Other (exhaustive draws, etc.) | 46.0% | -51 | -60 | +9 |
| Total (per hand) | +53 |
2022-23 (24 games · skill estimate -0.7pt/game)
Style
Where the points came from
As a table
| Hand result | Hands | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Own wins | 59 | +1132.3 | +47.2 |
| Deal-ins | 29 | -556.2 | -23.2 |
| Others' tsumo | 77 | -596.1 | -24.8 |
| Ron between others | 66 | -42.3 | -1.8 |
| Exhaustive draws | 68 | -47.0 | -2.0 |
Luck
Every number for 2022-23
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average placement | 2.54 | 2.50 (2.31 to 2.70) | 14% | 47 | 24 games |
| Points per game | -4.6 | -0.7 (-8.8 to 7.5) | 15% | 33 | 24 games |
| Points per game, luck removed | -5.8 | -1.1 (-8.6 to 6.3) | 20% | 20 | 24 games |
| 1st-place rate | 20.8% | 24.4% (16.4% to 32.4%) | 16% | 35 | 24 games |
| 4th-place rate | 29.2% | 25.6% (17.5% to 33.7%) | 17% | 28 | 24 games |
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 19.7% | 19.9% (17.5% to 22.3%) | 27% | 47 | 299 hands |
| Deal-in rate | 9.7% | 10.6% (8.8% to 12.4%) | 24% | 62 | 299 hands |
| Riichi rate | 24.1% | 23.1% (20.6% to 25.7%) | 29% | 74 | 299 hands |
| Call rate | 30.8% | 29.4% (25.7% to 33.0%) | 82% | 94 | 299 hands |
| First riichi rate | 76.4% | 76.1% (71.7% to 80.4%) | 14% | 49 | 72 riichi |
| Average riichi turn | 8.76 | 9.17 (8.76 to 9.57) | 30% | 97 | 72 riichi |
| Average win value | 6,408 | 6,555 (5,994 to 7,117) | 19% | 23 | 59 wins |
| Average deal-in value | 7,048 | 5,753 (5,206 to 6,301) | 9% | 11 | 29 deal-ins |
| Win efficiency | 1,464 | 1,474 (1,370 to 1,578) | 3% | 43 | 299 hands |
| Deal-in loss | 708 | 647 (541 to 752) | 12% | 27 | 299 hands |
| Net efficiency | 757 | 825 (606 to 1,044) | 13% | 36 | 299 hands |
| Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten) | 38.1% | 40.3% (33.1% to 47.5%) | 19% | 65 | 42 hands facing riichi |
| Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten) | 42.2% | 32.4% (26.3% to 38.6%) | 41% | 100 | 64 hands facing riichi |
| Tenpai rate after the first call | 26.1% | 25.9% (20.0% to 31.8%) | 60% | 43 | 92 first calls |
| Average win turn | 11.86 | 12.37 (12.22 to 12.52) | 1% | 81 | 59 wins |
| Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws | 27.9% | 36.7% (30.5% to 42.9%) | 27% | 1 | 68 exhaustive draws |
| Staying in vs riichi | 13.3% | 14.0% (12.1% to 15.9%) | 7% | 43 | 158 hands facing an opponent’s riichi |
| Tile efficiency match rate | 72.5% | 72.5% (70.8% to 74.2%) | 82% | 58 | 1,515 discards |
| Average ukeire loss (tiles) | 1.03 | 1.04 (0.93 to 1.14) | 71% | 30 | 1,478 discards |
| Breaking shape for value | 1.4% | 1.6% (1.2% to 2.1%) | 61% | 14 | 1,515 discards |
| Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted) | 8.15 | 8.17 (8.04 to 8.29) | 4% | 39 | 74 tenpai hands |
| Immediate riichi rate | 70.6% | 71.2% (65.4% to 77.1%) | 40% | 46 | 74 tenpai hands |
| Dama rate | 11.9% | 12.6% (7.3% to 17.9%) | 49% | 39 | 59 wins |
| Riichi income | 1,885 | 2,503 (1,740 to 3,266) | 16% | 11 | 72 riichi |
| Riichi win rate | 41.7% | 44.7% (38.6% to 50.9%) | 29% | 27 | 72 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate A | 13.9% | 14.3% (12.4% to 16.2%) | 3% | 36 | 72 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate B | 11.1% | 11.0% (8.5% to 13.6%) | 7% | 30 | 72 riichi |
| Riichi good-wait rate | 56.9% | 51.1% (45.5% to 56.8%) | 19% | 84 | 72 riichi |
| Riichi exhaustive draw rate | 18.1% | 19.0% (14.3% to 23.6%) | 23% | 30 | 72 riichi |
| Call income | -209 | 393 (-22.93 to 810) | 13% | 1 | 92 calls |
| Win rate after calling | 23.9% | 28.2% (23.3% to 33.2%) | 26% | 7 | 92 calls |
| Deal-in rate after calling | 9.8% | 11.1% (7.6% to 14.5%) | 26% | 62 | 92 calls |
| Metric | Actual | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starting hand (shanten) | +0.10 | 90 | 299 hands |
| Dora and red fives dealt | -0.02 | 30 | 299 hands |
| Draw luck | -0.3% | 39 | 3,666 tile draws |
| Ura-dora luck | +0.15 | 97 | 30 riichi wins |
| Ippatsu rate | +3.6% | 62 | 30 riichi wins |
| Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | -3.7% | 14 | 55 first riichi |
| Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate | 11.7% | 43 | 77 tsumo against |
| Points from luck (/game) | +1.3 | 55 | 24 games |
| Category | Frequency | Balance per hand | League average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins with riichi | 10.0% | +885 | +919 | -34 |
| Wins with calls | 7.4% | +435 | +382 | +53 |
| Dama wins | 2.3% | +144 | +173 | -29 |
| Deal-ins to riichi | 5.0% | -329 | -360 | +31 |
| Deal-ins to open hands | 3.3% | -249 | -203 | -46 |
| Deal-ins to dama | 1.3% | -156 | -101 | -55 |
| Others' tsumo | 25.8% | -807 | -752 | -55 |
| Other (exhaustive draws, etc.) | 44.8% | -162 | -60 | -103 |
| Total (per hand) | -240 |
Players with a similar styleclosest career style metrics first
- Kazuma IshiiEARTH JETSIn common: Efficiency first
- Takaki AsaiFormer M.League playerIn common: Few deal-ins
- Kotaro UchikawaEX FurinkazanIn common: Efficiency first
* Twelve style metrics, including call rate, riichi rate, win rate, deal-in rate, hand value, riichi speed and immediate riichi rate, are put on the same scale and compared; the players closest overall are listed. Metrics supported more strongly by the data receive more weight. The comparison shows how similar the players' styles are, not which is better. Differences are often small, so the order may change.