Player · 87 career games · 2021-22–2024-25

Rumi Nikaido

Few calls and few riichi, picking the hands to go for. Stands out for keeping shape and value over ukeire, many deal-ins and caution in not riichi-ing at once. Career record: -6.0pt per game, but allowing for luck the difference from average is not clear yet.

Closed-hand oriented
Dama-heavy

Actual / game

-6.0

87 career games

Skill estimate / game

-2.3

90% interval -7.7 to +3.1

Estimate, luck removed

-1.6

adjusted for starting hands, draws, ura-dora

Weight of the record

39%

share of the estimate from the record

Styleleague percentile, career

Average win value6,739
Riichi rate21.6%
Deal-in rate11.8%
Win rate19.1%
First riichi rate76.1%
Average riichi turn9.29
Call rate19.4%
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws39.3%
Staying in vs riichi14.2%
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)41.8%
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)24.1%
Tile efficiency match rate69.7%
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.16
Immediate riichi rate67.6%
Dama rate16.4%

Color only for metrics with a good side (red = good, blue = bad). Metrics of style, such as riichi rate, call rate and tile efficiency match rate, are gray. For tenpai turn, further right means later (a larger turn number). Values are estimates.

Placements87 career games, average placement 2.67

1st23.0%20×
2nd23.0%20×
3rd18.4%16×
4th35.6%31×

Riichi and callsbalance and outcome of hands with riichi or calls

Riichi income2,849
Riichi win rate45.7%
Riichi deal-in rate A14.1%
Riichi deal-in rate B10.1%
Riichi good-wait rate51.4%
Riichi exhaustive draw rate19.6%
Call income337
Win rate after calling30.1%
Deal-in rate after calling14.7%
Tenpai rate after the first call29.0%

Income is the average points won or lost in those hands (riichi sticks and honba included).

Net efficiency and morecalculated as on Mahjong Soul Paifuya, per hand

Net efficiency772
Deal-in loss683
Average win turn12.39

Deal-in loss = deal-in rate × average deal-in; net efficiency = win rate × average win − deal-in loss. Win and deal-in values include honba and riichi sticks. Win turn is the number of tiles discarded at the table when the win came ÷ 4 + 1. Win efficiency (win rate × average win) is not shown: players with a high win rate win smaller hands, the two cancel out, and differences between players cannot be told apart from chance.

Skill estimateleague percentile of the estimates

Points per game-2.3
Points per game, luck removed-1.6
Average placement2.56

Luckfurther right is luckier; values are differences from the league average (the dealer tsumo rate is the rate itself)

Points from luck (/game)-2.6
Draw luck-0.5%
Starting hand (shanten)-0.04
Dora and red fives dealt+0.02
Ura-dora luck+0.09
Ippatsu rate-2.7%
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+3.9%
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate12.4%

Where the points came fromchange in expected points, all stages

Own wins+43.1
Deal-ins-21.5
Others' tsumo-23.8
Ron between others-2.7
Exhaustive draws-1.0

Change in expected points per game. Total -6.0pt/game (87 games).

As a table

Hand result	Hands	Total	Per game
Own wins	196	+3750.3	+43.1
Deal-ins	133	-1869.2	-21.5
Others' tsumo	290	-2072.7	-23.8
Ron between others	236	-238.6	-2.7
Exhaustive draws	204	-88.8	-1.0

Hand balance breakdownpoints won or lost per hand, all stages

Category	Frequency	Balance per hand	League average	Difference
Wins with riichi	9.4%	+922	+919	+3
Wins with calls	5.9%	+315	+382	-67
Dama wins	3.2%	+194	+173	+21
Deal-ins to riichi	5.5%	-405	-360	-45
Deal-ins to open hands	5.2%	-279	-203	-76
Deal-ins to dama	1.9%	-106	-101	-5
Others' tsumo	27.4%	-745	-752	+7
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)	41.5%	-71	-60	-11
Total (per hand)		-176

Every career number (estimate, 90% interval, weight of the record)

Results
Metric	Actual	Estimate (90% interval)	Weight of the record	Percentile	Count
Average placement	2.67	2.56 (2.43 to 2.69)	37%	5	87 games
Points per game	-6.0	-2.3 (-7.7 to 3.1)	39%	7	87 games
Points per game, luck removed	-3.4	-1.6 (-6.4 to 3.2)	47%	19	87 games
1st-place rate	23.0%	24.2% (19.0% to 29.5%)	40%	31	87 games
4th-place rate	35.6%	29.4% (24.1% to 34.7%)	42%	3	87 games

Style
Metric	Actual	Estimate (90% interval)	Weight of the record	Percentile	Count
Win rate	18.5%	19.1% (17.6% to 20.7%)	57%	21	1,059 hands
Deal-in rate	12.6%	11.8% (10.6% to 13.0%)	53%	11	1,059 hands
Riichi rate	20.8%	21.6% (19.9% to 23.2%)	59%	19	1,059 hands
Call rate	19.2%	19.4% (17.3% to 21.5%)	94%	13	1,059 hands
First riichi rate	76.4%	76.1% (73.0% to 79.2%)	33%	56	220 riichi
Average riichi turn	9.25	9.29 (9.01 to 9.56)	56%	58	220 riichi
Average win value	6,928	6,739 (6,366 to 7,113)	44%	76	196 wins
Average deal-in value	5,969	5,733 (5,366 to 6,100)	31%	13	133 deal-ins
Win efficiency	1,431	1,469 (1,381 to 1,558)	11%	39	1,059 hands
Deal-in loss	778	683 (609 to 756)	32%	3	1,059 hands
Net efficiency	653	772 (623 to 921)	35%	11	1,059 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)	42.7%	41.8% (37.5% to 46.1%)	51%	70	192 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)	23.5%	24.1% (20.0% to 28.2%)	71%	31	221 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call	30.0%	29.0% (24.6% to 33.4%)	77%	80	203 first calls
Average win turn	12.70	12.39 (12.26 to 12.53)	5%	19	196 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws	38.7%	39.3% (35.1% to 43.6%)	53%	41	204 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi	14.6%	14.2% (12.7% to 15.6%)	21%	66	549 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate	69.6%	69.7% (68.8% to 70.7%)	94%	5	5,528 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)	1.18	1.17 (1.11 to 1.23)	90%	88	5,286 discards
Breaking shape for value	2.0%	2.0% (1.7% to 2.3%)	85%	47	5,528 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)	8.08	8.16 (8.05 to 8.27)	11%	37	211 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate	65.5%	67.6% (63.5% to 71.7%)	65%	13	211 tenpai hands
Dama rate	17.3%	16.4% (12.9% to 19.9%)	76%	82	196 wins
Riichi income	3,232	2,849 (2,318 to 3,381)	37%	90	220 riichi
Riichi win rate	45.5%	45.7% (41.5% to 49.9%)	56%	43	220 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A	11.4%	14.1% (12.4% to 15.8%)	8%	86	220 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B	6.4%	10.1% (8.1% to 12.1%)	19%	96	220 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate	53.6%	51.4% (47.5% to 55.2%)	42%	88	220 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate	20.0%	19.6% (16.5% to 22.8%)	48%	58	220 riichi
Call income	-100	337 (2.12 to 673)	25%	5	203 calls
Win rate after calling	30.5%	30.1% (26.4% to 33.8%)	44%	58	203 calls
Deal-in rate after calling	18.7%	14.7% (12.1% to 17.3%)	44%	1	203 calls

Luck (difference from the league average)
Metric	Actual	Percentile	Count
Starting hand (shanten)	-0.04	7	1,059 hands
Dora and red fives dealt	+0.02	88	1,059 hands
Draw luck	-0.5%	5	12,829 tile draws
Ura-dora luck	+0.09	94	100 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate	-2.7%	13	100 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)	+3.9%	92	168 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate	12.4%	45	290 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)	-2.6	15	87 games

By seasonRegular Season

2024-25 (16 games · skill estimate -1.5pt/game)

Style

Average win value6,634
Riichi rate22.5%
Deal-in rate11.1%
Win rate18.9%
First riichi rate76.5%
Average riichi turn9.30
Call rate16.9%
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws40.1%
Staying in vs riichi14.0%
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)41.7%
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)26.5%
Tile efficiency match rate68.5%
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.17
Immediate riichi rate68.8%
Dama rate12.8%

Where the points came from

Own wins+30.8
Deal-ins-19.3
Others' tsumo-20.9
Ron between others-4.2
Exhaustive draws-0.3

Change in expected points per game. Total -13.9pt/game (16 games).

As a table

Hand result	Hands	Total	Per game
Own wins	26	+492.7	+30.8
Deal-ins	22	-309.2	-19.3
Others' tsumo	49	-334.2	-20.9
Ron between others	44	-67.1	-4.2
Exhaustive draws	42	-4.4	-0.3

Luck

Points from luck (/game)-5.2
Draw luck-0.2%
Starting hand (shanten)-0.10
Dora and red fives dealt+0.01
Ura-dora luck+0.05
Ippatsu rate+0.3%
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)-5.9%
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate12.2%

Every number for 2024-25

Results
Metric	Actual	Estimate (90% interval)	Weight of the record	Percentile	Count
Average placement	2.94	2.54 (2.33 to 2.76)	10%	18	16 games
Points per game	-13.8	-1.5 (-10.3 to 7.4)	11%	24	16 games
Points per game, luck removed	-8.6	-1.2 (-9.5 to 7.1)	14%	32	16 games
1st-place rate	12.5%	23.7% (15.0% to 32.4%)	11%	24	16 games
4th-place rate	43.8%	27.1% (18.3% to 35.9%)	12%	12	16 games

Style
Metric	Actual	Estimate (90% interval)	Weight of the record	Percentile	Count
Win rate	14.2%	18.9% (16.1% to 21.7%)	19%	7	183 hands
Deal-in rate	12.0%	11.1% (9.0% to 13.2%)	16%	41	183 hands
Riichi rate	21.3%	22.5% (19.5% to 25.4%)	20%	38	183 hands
Call rate	14.8%	16.9% (12.5% to 21.3%)	74%	4	183 hands
First riichi rate	82.1%	76.5% (71.6% to 81.3%)	8%	77	39 riichi
Average riichi turn	9.15	9.30 (8.81 to 9.79)	19%	58	39 riichi
Average win value	7,050	6,634 (5,961 to 7,307)	10%	86	26 wins
Average deal-in value	5,127	5,591 (5,020 to 6,162)	7%	46	22 deal-ins
Win efficiency	1,148	1,467 (1,359 to 1,575)	2%	18	183 hands
Deal-in loss	649	640 (525 to 754)	7%	38	183 hands
Net efficiency	498	807 (568 to 1,046)	8%	26	183 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)	46.7%	41.7% (33.9% to 49.5%)	14%	52	30 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)	28.6%	26.5% (19.3% to 33.7%)	32%	60	42 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call	29.6%	26.9% (17.9% to 35.8%)	30%	75	27 first calls
Average win turn	11.61	12.37 (12.22 to 12.53)	1%	75	26 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws	40.5%	40.1% (32.9% to 47.3%)	19%	49	42 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi	12.0%	14.0% (12.0% to 16.0%)	4%	29	92 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate	66.9%	68.5% (66.4% to 70.6%)	73%	1	931 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)	1.18	1.13 (1.01 to 1.25)	60%	92	877 discards
Breaking shape for value	2.7%	2.3% (1.8% to 2.9%)	49%	86	931 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)	8.13	8.17 (8.03 to 8.30)	2%	58	36 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate	60.2%	68.8% (61.3% to 76.4%)	24%	18	36 tenpai hands
Dama rate	11.5%	12.8% (5.8% to 19.8%)	30%	69	26 wins
Riichi income	3,403	2,697 (1,831 to 3,563)	10%	86	39 riichi
Riichi win rate	38.5%	44.6% (37.1% to 52.1%)	18%	24	39 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A	10.3%	14.3% (12.3% to 16.2%)	1%	69	39 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B	5.1%	10.8% (8.1% to 13.5%)	4%	77	39 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate	41.0%	48.7% (42.2% to 55.2%)	12%	21	39 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate	25.6%	20.1% (14.7% to 25.6%)	14%	86	39 riichi
Call income	-248	455 (-46.85 to 956)	4%	29	27 calls
Win rate after calling	29.6%	29.8% (23.1% to 36.5%)	10%	41	27 calls
Deal-in rate after calling	14.8%	11.8% (7.2% to 16.5%)	10%	38	27 calls

Luck (difference from the league average)
Metric	Actual	Percentile	Count
Starting hand (shanten)	-0.10	7	183 hands
Dora and red fives dealt	+0.01	75	183 hands
Draw luck	-0.2%	43	2,236 tile draws
Ura-dora luck	+0.05	72	15 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate	+0.3%	69	15 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)	-5.9%	21	32 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate	12.2%	43	49 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)	-5.2	7	16 games

Hand balance breakdown
Category	Frequency	Balance per hand	League average	Difference
Wins with riichi	8.2%	+876	+919	-43
Wins with calls	4.4%	+183	+382	-199
Dama wins	1.6%	+89	+173	-84
Deal-ins to riichi	3.8%	-227	-360	+133
Deal-ins to open hands	6.6%	-332	-203	-129
Deal-ins to dama	1.6%	-101	-101	-0
Others' tsumo	26.8%	-652	-752	+100
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)	47.0%	-60	-60	-0
Total (per hand)		-225

2023-24 (19 games · skill estimate -0.1pt/game)

Style

Average win value6,682
Riichi rate22.1%
Deal-in rate11.4%
Win rate20.0%
First riichi rate74.8%
Average riichi turn9.34
Call rate23.2%
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws41.7%
Staying in vs riichi14.4%
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)42.8%
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)22.2%
Tile efficiency match rate71.7%
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.15
Immediate riichi rate69.4%
Dama rate15.6%

Where the points came from

Own wins+49.0
Deal-ins-23.2
Others' tsumo-22.5
Ron between others-3.6
Exhaustive draws-0.4

Change in expected points per game. Total -0.7pt/game (19 games).

As a table

Hand result	Hands	Total	Per game
Own wins	49	+930.8	+49.0
Deal-ins	33	-441.7	-23.2
Others' tsumo	63	-426.6	-22.5
Ron between others	57	-67.7	-3.6
Exhaustive draws	43	-7.8	-0.4

Luck

Points from luck (/game)+3.3
Draw luck+0.4%
Starting hand (shanten)-0.02
Dora and red fives dealt+0.08
Ura-dora luck+0.09
Ippatsu rate-1.6%
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+9.2%
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate11.1%

Every number for 2023-24

Results
Metric	Actual	Estimate (90% interval)	Weight of the record	Percentile	Count
Average placement	2.58	2.51 (2.30 to 2.72)	12%	43	19 games
Points per game	-1.0	-0.1 (-8.7 to 8.5)	12%	52	19 games
Points per game, luck removed	-4.3	-0.7 (-8.7 to 7.3)	16%	35	19 games
1st-place rate	26.3%	25.2% (16.8% to 33.6%)	13%	58	19 games
4th-place rate	31.6%	25.8% (17.3% to 34.3%)	14%	26	19 games

Style
Metric	Actual	Estimate (90% interval)	Weight of the record	Percentile	Count
Win rate	20.0%	20.0% (17.4% to 22.5%)	24%	43	245 hands
Deal-in rate	13.5%	11.4% (9.5% to 13.4%)	21%	24	245 hands
Riichi rate	20.0%	22.1% (19.3% to 24.8%)	25%	15	245 hands
Call rate	23.3%	23.2% (19.3% to 27.1%)	79%	52	245 hands
First riichi rate	63.3%	74.8% (70.1% to 79.4%)	10%	1	49 riichi
Average riichi turn	9.35	9.34 (8.88 to 9.80)	22%	43	49 riichi
Average win value	7,143	6,682 (6,092 to 7,272)	17%	77	49 wins
Average deal-in value	5,721	5,635 (5,100 to 6,171)	10%	42	33 deal-ins
Win efficiency	1,574	1,477 (1,371 to 1,583)	3%	69	245 hands
Deal-in loss	812	656 (546 to 765)	10%	21	245 hands
Net efficiency	762	827 (600 to 1,055)	11%	32	245 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)	51.2%	42.8% (35.7% to 49.9%)	19%	83	43 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)	16.0%	22.2% (15.4% to 28.9%)	36%	4	50 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call	33.3%	29.3% (22.5% to 36.2%)	48%	89	57 first calls
Average win turn	13.62	12.39 (12.24 to 12.54)	1%	1	49 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws	48.8%	41.7% (34.6% to 48.9%)	19%	92	43 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi	19.4%	14.4% (12.5% to 16.3%)	6%	97	134 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate	71.4%	71.7% (69.9% to 73.6%)	79%	21	1,252 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)	1.12	1.10 (0.99 to 1.21)	67%	77	1,216 discards
Breaking shape for value	2.4%	2.2% (1.7% to 2.7%)	57%	75	1,252 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)	7.55	8.15 (8.02 to 8.28)	3%	1	47 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate	64.1%	69.4% (62.5% to 76.3%)	30%	24	47 tenpai hands
Dama rate	18.4%	15.6% (10.0% to 21.2%)	44%	86	49 wins
Riichi income	3,145	2,684 (1,853 to 3,514)	12%	75	49 riichi
Riichi win rate	44.9%	45.8% (38.7% to 52.8%)	22%	41	49 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A	10.2%	14.2% (12.3% to 16.2%)	2%	83	49 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B	6.1%	10.8% (8.1% to 13.5%)	5%	89	49 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate	51.0%	49.9% (43.7% to 56.1%)	14%	52	49 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate	24.5%	20.1% (15.0% to 25.3%)	17%	86	49 riichi
Call income	251	466 (10.49 to 921)	9%	41	57 calls
Win rate after calling	31.6%	30.1% (24.4% to 35.8%)	18%	63	57 calls
Deal-in rate after calling	17.5%	12.6% (8.6% to 16.6%)	18%	12	57 calls

Luck (difference from the league average)
Metric	Actual	Percentile	Count
Starting hand (shanten)	-0.02	24	245 hands
Dora and red fives dealt	+0.08	100	245 hands
Draw luck	+0.4%	83	2,922 tile draws
Ura-dora luck	+0.09	75	22 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate	-1.6%	41	22 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)	+9.2%	97	31 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate	11.1%	49	63 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)	+3.3	80	19 games

Hand balance breakdown
Category	Frequency	Balance per hand	League average	Difference
Wins with riichi	9.0%	+860	+919	-59
Wins with calls	7.3%	+448	+382	+66
Dama wins	3.7%	+265	+173	+92
Deal-ins to riichi	6.1%	-488	-360	-128
Deal-ins to open hands	6.1%	-260	-203	-57
Deal-ins to dama	1.2%	-76	-101	+24
Others' tsumo	25.7%	-687	-752	+65
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)	40.8%	-37	-60	+23
Total (per hand)		+25

2022-23 (21 games · skill estimate 0.7pt/game)

Style

Average win value6,698
Riichi rate22.6%
Deal-in rate11.3%
Win rate20.3%
First riichi rate75.9%
Average riichi turn9.41
Call rate18.3%
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws40.6%
Staying in vs riichi14.0%
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)38.9%
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)26.9%
Tile efficiency match rate69.2%
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.17
Immediate riichi rate68.9%
Dama rate16.6%

Where the points came from

Own wins+48.8
Deal-ins-17.7
Others' tsumo-23.5
Ron between others-2.0
Exhaustive draws-0.3

Change in expected points per game. Total +5.3pt/game (21 games).

As a table

Hand result	Hands	Total	Per game
Own wins	54	+1024.1	+48.8
Deal-ins	32	-371.5	-17.7
Others' tsumo	67	-494.4	-23.5
Ron between others	56	-41.3	-2.0
Exhaustive draws	42	-6.6	-0.3

Luck

Points from luck (/game)+2.5
Draw luck+0.3%
Starting hand (shanten)-0.10
Dora and red fives dealt+0.05
Ura-dora luck-0.02
Ippatsu rate-9.0%
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+11.1%
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate16.4%

Every number for 2022-23

Results
Metric	Actual	Estimate (90% interval)	Weight of the record	Percentile	Count
Average placement	2.48	2.49 (2.29 to 2.70)	13%	58	21 games
Points per game	5.0	0.7 (-7.7 to 9.1)	13%	65	21 games
Points per game, luck removed	2.5	0.4 (-7.3 to 8.2)	18%	65	21 games
1st-place rate	33.3%	26.2% (18.0% to 34.4%)	14%	78	21 games
4th-place rate	28.6%	25.4% (17.1% to 33.8%)	15%	36	21 games

Style
Metric	Actual	Estimate (90% interval)	Weight of the record	Percentile	Count
Win rate	21.5%	20.3% (17.8% to 22.9%)	24%	71	251 hands
Deal-in rate	12.7%	11.3% (9.4% to 13.2%)	21%	4	251 hands
Riichi rate	22.3%	22.6% (19.9% to 25.3%)	25%	39	251 hands
Call rate	17.1%	18.3% (14.5% to 22.2%)	79%	20	251 hands
First riichi rate	75.0%	75.9% (71.3% to 80.5%)	11%	39	56 riichi
Average riichi turn	9.64	9.41 (8.97 to 9.85)	25%	30	56 riichi
Average win value	7,193	6,698 (6,123 to 7,273)	18%	74	54 wins
Average deal-in value	5,503	5,614 (5,075 to 6,152)	10%	52	32 deal-ins
Win efficiency	1,708	1,481 (1,375 to 1,586)	3%	84	251 hands
Deal-in loss	723	647 (538 to 756)	10%	23	251 hands
Net efficiency	985	852 (626 to 1,079)	11%	52	251 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)	31.1%	38.9% (31.9% to 46.0%)	20%	23	45 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)	29.5%	26.9% (19.8% to 33.9%)	33%	71	44 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call	34.9%	29.4% (21.9% to 37.0%)	41%	74	43 first calls
Average win turn	12.74	12.38 (12.24 to 12.53)	1%	27	54 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws	42.9%	40.6% (33.4% to 47.7%)	19%	71	42 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi	13.0%	14.0% (12.0% to 16.0%)	5%	46	115 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate	68.2%	69.2% (67.4% to 71.0%)	80%	1	1,348 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)	1.18	1.14 (1.03 to 1.25)	68%	81	1,273 discards
Breaking shape for value	1.9%	2.0% (1.5% to 2.5%)	59%	49	1,348 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)	8.32	8.17 (8.04 to 8.30)	3%	71	54 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate	63.3%	68.9% (62.3% to 75.5%)	33%	11	54 tenpai hands
Dama rate	20.4%	16.6% (11.2% to 22.1%)	47%	87	54 wins
Riichi income	3,623	2,754 (1,946 to 3,562)	13%	81	56 riichi
Riichi win rate	50.0%	47.0% (40.2% to 53.7%)	24%	71	56 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A	10.7%	14.2% (12.3% to 16.2%)	2%	71	56 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B	5.4%	10.7% (8.1% to 13.3%)	6%	94	56 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate	64.3%	52.0% (46.0% to 58.0%)	16%	97	56 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate	19.6%	19.3% (14.3% to 24.3%)	19%	43	56 riichi
Call income	374	479 (4.18 to 954)	7%	39	43 calls
Win rate after calling	34.9%	30.5% (24.4% to 36.6%)	14%	68	43 calls
Deal-in rate after calling	20.9%	12.9% (8.6% to 17.1%)	14%	7	43 calls

Luck (difference from the league average)
Metric	Actual	Percentile	Count
Starting hand (shanten)	-0.10	1	251 hands
Dora and red fives dealt	+0.05	81	251 hands
Draw luck	+0.3%	71	2,999 tile draws
Ura-dora luck	-0.02	39	28 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate	-9.0%	14	28 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)	+11.1%	97	42 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate	16.4%	7	67 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)	+2.5	78	21 games

Hand balance breakdown
Category	Frequency	Balance per hand	League average	Difference
Wins with riichi	11.2%	+1,003	+919	+84
Wins with calls	6.0%	+393	+382	+11
Dama wins	4.4%	+312	+173	+139
Deal-ins to riichi	4.4%	-327	-360	+33
Deal-ins to open hands	6.8%	-342	-203	-139
Deal-ins to dama	1.6%	-66	-101	+35
Others' tsumo	26.7%	-708	-752	+44
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)	39.0%	-26	-60	+34
Total (per hand)		+239

2021-22 (18 games · skill estimate -1.8pt/game)

Style

Average win value6,589
Riichi rate22.0%
Deal-in rate11.2%
Win rate19.5%
First riichi rate76.7%
Average riichi turn9.24
Call rate19.4%
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws37.1%
Staying in vs riichi13.9%
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)40.9%
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)25.9%
Tile efficiency match rate72.4%
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.17
Immediate riichi rate73.6%
Dama rate14.1%

Where the points came from

Own wins+43.0
Deal-ins-21.3
Others' tsumo-29.4
Ron between others-4.3
Exhaustive draws-3.4

Change in expected points per game. Total -15.3pt/game (18 games).

As a table

Hand result	Hands	Total	Per game
Own wins	39	+774.0	+43.0
Deal-ins	27	-383.3	-21.3
Others' tsumo	72	-528.5	-29.4
Ron between others	37	-76.9	-4.3
Exhaustive draws	44	-61.2	-3.4

Luck

Points from luck (/game)-6.1
Draw luck-1.7%
Starting hand (shanten)+0.04
Dora and red fives dealt-0.06
Ura-dora luck+0.23
Ippatsu rate+0.3%
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+3.1%
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate11.1%

Every number for 2021-22

Results
Metric	Actual	Estimate (90% interval)	Weight of the record	Percentile	Count
Average placement	2.83	2.53 (2.32 to 2.74)	11%	17	18 games
Points per game	-15.3	-1.8 (-10.5 to 6.9)	12%	17	18 games
Points per game, luck removed	-9.2	-1.4 (-9.5 to 6.6)	15%	23	18 games
1st-place rate	16.7%	24.0% (15.5% to 32.5%)	12%	23	18 games
4th-place rate	44.4%	27.4% (18.8% to 36.1%)	13%	7	18 games

Style
Metric	Actual	Estimate (90% interval)	Weight of the record	Percentile	Count
Win rate	17.8%	19.5% (16.9% to 22.2%)	22%	27	219 hands
Deal-in rate	12.3%	11.2% (9.2% to 13.2%)	19%	20	219 hands
Riichi rate	19.6%	22.0% (19.2% to 24.9%)	23%	30	219 hands
Call rate	18.3%	19.4% (15.3% to 23.5%)	77%	39	219 hands
First riichi rate	83.7%	76.7% (71.9% to 81.5%)	9%	78	43 riichi
Average riichi turn	8.86	9.24 (8.76 to 9.72)	20%	94	43 riichi
Average win value	6,579	6,589 (5,967 to 7,211)	14%	52	39 wins
Average deal-in value	6,122	5,668 (5,114 to 6,222)	8%	27	27 deal-ins
Win efficiency	1,320	1,470 (1,364 to 1,577)	2%	30	219 hands
Deal-in loss	775	651 (539 to 762)	9%	17	219 hands
Net efficiency	545	806 (574 to 1,039)	10%	14	219 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)	41.3%	40.9% (33.9% to 47.9%)	20%	58	46 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)	26.5%	25.9% (19.1% to 32.7%)	35%	68	49 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call	22.5%	24.4% (16.7% to 32.1%)	39%	20	40 first calls
Average win turn	12.28	12.38 (12.23 to 12.53)	1%	78	39 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws	25.0%	37.1% (30.0% to 44.2%)	20%	4	44 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi	11.6%	13.9% (12.0% to 15.9%)	6%	33	121 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate	72.2%	72.4% (70.5% to 74.3%)	77%	58	1,130 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)	1.21	1.16 (1.04 to 1.27)	65%	84	1,084 discards
Breaking shape for value	1.3%	1.6% (1.1% to 2.2%)	54%	17	1,130 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)	8.07	8.17 (8.03 to 8.30)	2%	27	41 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate	79.0%	73.6% (66.4% to 80.9%)	27%	87	41 tenpai hands
Dama rate	15.4%	14.1% (8.1% to 20.2%)	39%	43	39 wins
Riichi income	3,181	2,681 (1,830 to 3,532)	10%	46	43 riichi
Riichi win rate	46.5%	46.1% (38.8% to 53.4%)	20%	43	43 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A	16.3%	14.4% (12.4% to 16.3%)	2%	23	43 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B	9.3%	11.0% (8.3% to 13.7%)	5%	46	43 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate	58.1%	50.8% (44.4% to 57.2%)	13%	87	43 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate	14.0%	18.5% (13.1% to 23.8%)	15%	23	43 riichi
Call income	293	474 (-5.10 to 954)	6%	46	40 calls
Win rate after calling	32.5%	30.2% (24.0% to 36.4%)	14%	65	40 calls
Deal-in rate after calling	17.5%	12.3% (8.0% to 16.6%)	13%	7	40 calls

Luck (difference from the league average)
Metric	Actual	Percentile	Count
Starting hand (shanten)	+0.04	78	219 hands
Dora and red fives dealt	-0.06	7	219 hands
Draw luck	-1.7%	1	2,706 tile draws
Ura-dora luck	+0.23	97	20 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate	+0.3%	55	20 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)	+3.1%	63	36 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate	11.1%	58	72 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)	-6.1	11	18 games

Hand balance breakdown
Category	Frequency	Balance per hand	League average	Difference
Wins with riichi	9.1%	+921	+919	+2
Wins with calls	5.9%	+274	+382	-109
Dama wins	2.7%	+126	+173	-47
Deal-ins to riichi	6.8%	-469	-360	-109
Deal-ins to open hands	1.8%	-109	-203	+94
Deal-ins to dama	3.7%	-215	-101	-114
Others' tsumo	32.9%	-898	-752	-145
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)	37.0%	-158	-60	-98
Total (per hand)		-529

Players with a similar styleclosest career style metrics first

Satoshi FujisakiFormer M.League playerIn common: Shape and value first, Immediate riichi rarely, More deal-ins
Aiko HinataShibuya ABEMASIn common: Riichis rarely, Shape and value first, Immediate riichi rarely
Kazunori TakizawaKONAMI MAH-JONG FIGHT CLUBIn common: Immediate riichi rarely, Closed-hand oriented, Riichis rarely

* Twelve style metrics, including call rate, riichi rate, win rate, deal-in rate, hand value, riichi speed and immediate riichi rate, are put on the same scale and compared; the players closest overall are listed. Metrics supported more strongly by the data receive more weight. The comparison shows how similar the players' styles are, not which is better. Differences are often small, so the order may change.