Player · 46 career games · 2023-24–2024-25
Hiroe Sugawara
In style, stands out for speed-first hands that maximise ukeire. Career record: -5.3pt per game, but allowing for luck the difference from average is not clear yet.
Actual / game
-5.3
46 career games
Skill estimate / game
-1.3
90% interval -8.1 to +5.4
Estimate, luck removed
-1.5
adjusted for starting hands, draws, ura-dora
Weight of the record
25%
share of the estimate from the record
Styleleague percentile, career
Color only for metrics with a good side (red = good, blue = bad). Metrics of style, such as riichi rate, call rate and tile efficiency match rate, are gray. For tenpai turn, further right means later (a larger turn number). Values are estimates.
Placements46 career games, average placement 2.67
- 1st26.1%12×
- 2nd17.4%8×
- 3rd19.6%9×
- 4th37.0%17×
Riichi and callsbalance and outcome of hands with riichi or calls
Income is the average points won or lost in those hands (riichi sticks and honba included).
Net efficiency and morecalculated as on Mahjong Soul Paifuya, per hand
Deal-in loss = deal-in rate × average deal-in; net efficiency = win rate × average win − deal-in loss. Win and deal-in values include honba and riichi sticks. Win turn is the number of tiles discarded at the table when the win came ÷ 4 + 1. Win efficiency (win rate × average win) is not shown: players with a high win rate win smaller hands, the two cancel out, and differences between players cannot be told apart from chance.
Skill estimateleague percentile of the estimates
Luckfurther right is luckier; values are differences from the league average (the dealer tsumo rate is the rate itself)
Where the points came fromchange in expected points, all stages
As a table
| Hand result | Hands | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Own wins | 111 | +2021.7 | +43.9 |
| Deal-ins | 65 | -1036.8 | -22.5 |
| Others' tsumo | 155 | -1126.2 | -24.5 |
| Ron between others | 112 | -83.2 | -1.8 |
| Exhaustive draws | 100 | -7.4 | -0.2 |
Hand balance breakdownpoints won or lost per hand, all stages
| Category | Frequency | Balance per hand | League average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins with riichi | 9.2% | +778 | +919 | -141 |
| Wins with calls | 8.3% | +468 | +382 | +86 |
| Dama wins | 2.9% | +166 | +173 | -7 |
| Deal-ins to riichi | 6.8% | -452 | -360 | -92 |
| Deal-ins to open hands | 4.8% | -276 | -203 | -73 |
| Deal-ins to dama | 0.4% | -22 | -101 | +78 |
| Others' tsumo | 28.5% | -772 | -752 | -20 |
| Other (exhaustive draws, etc.) | 39.0% | -63 | -60 | -3 |
| Total (per hand) | -174 |
Every career number (estimate, 90% interval, weight of the record)
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average placement | 2.67 | 2.54 (2.37 to 2.71) | 24% | 19 | 46 games |
| Points per game | -5.3 | -1.3 (-8.1 to 5.4) | 25% | 27 | 46 games |
| Points per game, luck removed | -4.7 | -1.5 (-7.5 to 4.5) | 32% | 21 | 46 games |
| 1st-place rate | 26.1% | 25.3% (18.8% to 31.9%) | 26% | 54 | 46 games |
| 4th-place rate | 37.0% | 28.2% (21.6% to 34.9%) | 28% | 5 | 46 games |
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 20.4% | 20.2% (18.2% to 22.1%) | 41% | 62 | 543 hands |
| Deal-in rate | 12.0% | 11.3% (9.8% to 12.8%) | 37% | 27 | 543 hands |
| Riichi rate | 23.8% | 23.2% (21.1% to 25.2%) | 42% | 68 | 543 hands |
| Call rate | 20.8% | 21.0% (18.2% to 23.8%) | 89% | 31 | 543 hands |
| First riichi rate | 72.9% | 75.3% (71.6% to 79.0%) | 22% | 21 | 129 riichi |
| Average riichi turn | 9.14 | 9.25 (8.92 to 9.58) | 43% | 70 | 129 riichi |
| Average win value | 6,304 | 6,502 (6,044 to 6,959) | 31% | 29 | 111 wins |
| Average deal-in value | 5,803 | 5,658 (5,196 to 6,119) | 18% | 33 | 65 deal-ins |
| Win efficiency | 1,411 | 1,470 (1,373 to 1,568) | 6% | 41 | 543 hands |
| Deal-in loss | 721 | 655 (563 to 746) | 19% | 25 | 543 hands |
| Net efficiency | 690 | 804 (616 to 992) | 21% | 25 | 543 hands |
| Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten) | 49.0% | 43.8% (38.5% to 49.1%) | 36% | 90 | 104 hands facing riichi |
| Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten) | 39.6% | 33.3% (28.2% to 38.5%) | 55% | 100 | 111 hands facing riichi |
| Tenpai rate after the first call | 27.4% | 26.8% (21.3% to 32.3%) | 65% | 56 | 113 first calls |
| Average win turn | 12.09 | 12.37 (12.23 to 12.51) | 3% | 70 | 111 wins |
| Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws | 41.0% | 40.4% (35.0% to 45.7%) | 36% | 56 | 100 exhaustive draws |
| Staying in vs riichi | 13.5% | 14.0% (12.3% to 15.7%) | 12% | 47 | 282 hands facing an opponent’s riichi |
| Tile efficiency match rate | 76.2% | 75.8% (74.5% to 77.1%) | 89% | 96 | 2,836 discards |
| Average ukeire loss (tiles) | 0.98 | 0.99 (0.91 to 1.08) | 82% | 27 | 2,728 discards |
| Breaking shape for value | 2.9% | 2.7% (2.3% to 3.0%) | 75% | 98 | 2,836 discards |
| Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted) | 8.09 | 8.16 (8.04 to 8.28) | 7% | 45 | 116 tenpai hands |
| Immediate riichi rate | 74.0% | 72.8% (67.8% to 77.9%) | 51% | 60 | 116 tenpai hands |
| Dama rate | 14.4% | 14.0% (9.7% to 18.3%) | 64% | 58 | 111 wins |
| Riichi income | 1,335 | 2,291 (1,648 to 2,934) | 26% | 9 | 129 riichi |
| Riichi win rate | 38.8% | 42.9% (37.9% to 47.9%) | 42% | 7 | 129 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate A | 18.6% | 14.5% (12.7% to 16.3%) | 5% | 15 | 129 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate B | 12.4% | 11.2% (8.9% to 13.5%) | 12% | 33 | 129 riichi |
| Riichi good-wait rate | 52.7% | 50.6% (46.0% to 55.3%) | 30% | 66 | 129 riichi |
| Riichi exhaustive draw rate | 18.6% | 19.0% (15.2% to 22.8%) | 35% | 41 | 129 riichi |
| Call income | 1,047 | 576 (179 to 973) | 16% | 82 | 113 calls |
| Win rate after calling | 39.8% | 32.9% (28.3% to 37.4%) | 31% | 98 | 113 calls |
| Deal-in rate after calling | 11.5% | 11.5% (8.3% to 14.7%) | 31% | 52 | 113 calls |
| Metric | Actual | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starting hand (shanten) | +0.02 | 76 | 543 hands |
| Dora and red fives dealt | -0.05 | 1 | 543 hands |
| Draw luck | -0.0% | 56 | 6,539 tile draws |
| Ura-dora luck | -0.01 | 21 | 50 riichi wins |
| Ippatsu rate | -1.7% | 25 | 50 riichi wins |
| Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | -2.3% | 21 | 94 first riichi |
| Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate | 14.8% | 5 | 155 tsumo against |
| Points from luck (/game) | -0.6 | 43 | 46 games |
By seasonRegular Season
2024-25 (23 games · skill estimate -1.2pt/game)
Style
Where the points came from
As a table
| Hand result | Hands | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Own wins | 57 | +973.2 | +42.3 |
| Deal-ins | 39 | -633.5 | -27.5 |
| Others' tsumo | 68 | -478.7 | -20.8 |
| Ron between others | 60 | -55.8 | -2.4 |
| Exhaustive draws | 53 | +6.2 | +0.3 |
Luck
Every number for 2024-25
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average placement | 2.70 | 2.52 (2.32 to 2.72) | 14% | 29 | 23 games |
| Points per game | -8.5 | -1.2 (-9.5 to 7.0) | 15% | 32 | 23 games |
| Points per game, luck removed | -7.5 | -1.4 (-9.0 to 6.2) | 19% | 29 | 23 games |
| 1st-place rate | 17.4% | 23.9% (15.9% to 31.9%) | 15% | 26 | 23 games |
| 4th-place rate | 30.4% | 25.8% (17.6% to 33.9%) | 16% | 36 | 23 games |
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 20.6% | 20.1% (17.7% to 22.6%) | 26% | 49 | 277 hands |
| Deal-in rate | 14.1% | 11.6% (9.8% to 13.5%) | 23% | 15 | 277 hands |
| Riichi rate | 23.8% | 23.0% (20.4% to 25.7%) | 27% | 63 | 277 hands |
| Call rate | 22.4% | 22.5% (18.8% to 26.2%) | 81% | 32 | 277 hands |
| First riichi rate | 66.7% | 74.8% (70.4% to 79.2%) | 13% | 4 | 66 riichi |
| Average riichi turn | 9.55 | 9.39 (8.98 to 9.81) | 28% | 26 | 66 riichi |
| Average win value | 5,684 | 6,421 (5,854 to 6,988) | 19% | 15 | 57 wins |
| Average deal-in value | 5,672 | 5,631 (5,112 to 6,150) | 12% | 32 | 39 deal-ins |
| Win efficiency | 1,279 | 1,468 (1,363 to 1,573) | 3% | 26 | 277 hands |
| Deal-in loss | 832 | 660 (552 to 767) | 11% | 15 | 277 hands |
| Net efficiency | 447 | 788 (566 to 1,010) | 12% | 18 | 277 hands |
| Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten) | 53.7% | 43.8% (37.1% to 50.5%) | 23% | 92 | 54 hands facing riichi |
| Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten) | 31.3% | 27.9% (21.7% to 34.1%) | 41% | 77 | 64 hands facing riichi |
| Tenpai rate after the first call | 29.0% | 27.3% (20.7% to 34.0%) | 50% | 86 | 62 first calls |
| Average win turn | 12.25 | 12.38 (12.23 to 12.53) | 1% | 58 | 57 wins |
| Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws | 41.5% | 40.4% (33.7% to 47.1%) | 23% | 60 | 53 exhaustive draws |
| Staying in vs riichi | 15.8% | 14.2% (12.3% to 16.1%) | 7% | 66 | 152 hands facing an opponent’s riichi |
| Tile efficiency match rate | 77.2% | 76.4% (74.7% to 78.2%) | 81% | 92 | 1,424 discards |
| Average ukeire loss (tiles) | 0.89 | 0.94 (0.83 to 1.05) | 70% | 21 | 1,363 discards |
| Breaking shape for value | 3.3% | 2.8% (2.3% to 3.3%) | 60% | 97 | 1,424 discards |
| Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted) | 8.19 | 8.17 (8.04 to 8.30) | 3% | 60 | 56 tenpai hands |
| Immediate riichi rate | 78.4% | 73.9% (67.4% to 80.4%) | 33% | 80 | 56 tenpai hands |
| Dama rate | 8.8% | 11.1% (5.8% to 16.5%) | 48% | 38 | 57 wins |
| Riichi income | 876 | 2,359 (1,580 to 3,138) | 15% | 9 | 66 riichi |
| Riichi win rate | 37.9% | 43.8% (37.4% to 50.2%) | 27% | 12 | 66 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate A | 22.7% | 14.5% (12.6% to 16.4%) | 2% | 7 | 66 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate B | 16.7% | 11.4% (8.8% to 14.0%) | 7% | 15 | 66 riichi |
| Riichi good-wait rate | 63.6% | 52.3% (46.5% to 58.0%) | 18% | 100 | 66 riichi |
| Riichi exhaustive draw rate | 19.7% | 19.4% (14.6% to 24.1%) | 21% | 66 | 66 riichi |
| Call income | 1,265 | 560 (111 to 1,009) | 9% | 89 | 62 calls |
| Win rate after calling | 43.5% | 32.5% (26.9% to 38.0%) | 20% | 97 | 62 calls |
| Deal-in rate after calling | 11.3% | 11.5% (7.6% to 15.4%) | 19% | 63 | 62 calls |
| Metric | Actual | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starting hand (shanten) | -0.03 | 38 | 277 hands |
| Dora and red fives dealt | -0.04 | 21 | 277 hands |
| Draw luck | -0.6% | 26 | 3,305 tile draws |
| Ura-dora luck | -0.09 | 21 | 25 riichi wins |
| Ippatsu rate | -3.7% | 31 | 25 riichi wins |
| Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | +0.4% | 58 | 44 first riichi |
| Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate | 11.8% | 49 | 68 tsumo against |
| Points from luck (/game) | -1.0 | 41 | 23 games |
| Category | Frequency | Balance per hand | League average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins with riichi | 9.0% | +698 | +919 | -221 |
| Wins with calls | 9.7% | +517 | +382 | +135 |
| Dama wins | 1.8% | +64 | +173 | -109 |
| Deal-ins to riichi | 7.9% | -536 | -360 | -176 |
| Deal-ins to open hands | 5.4% | -291 | -203 | -88 |
| Deal-ins to dama | 0.7% | -44 | -101 | +57 |
| Others' tsumo | 24.5% | -591 | -752 | +161 |
| Other (exhaustive draws, etc.) | 40.8% | -72 | -60 | -13 |
| Total (per hand) | -256 |
2023-24 (23 games · skill estimate -0.3pt/game)
Style
Where the points came from
As a table
| Hand result | Hands | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Own wins | 54 | +1048.5 | +45.6 |
| Deal-ins | 26 | -403.4 | -17.5 |
| Others' tsumo | 87 | -647.5 | -28.2 |
| Ron between others | 52 | -27.4 | -1.2 |
| Exhaustive draws | 47 | -13.6 | -0.6 |
Luck
Every number for 2023-24
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average placement | 2.65 | 2.52 (2.32 to 2.72) | 14% | 29 | 23 games |
| Points per game | -2.1 | -0.3 (-8.5 to 7.9) | 15% | 49 | 23 games |
| Points per game, luck removed | -1.9 | -0.4 (-7.9 to 7.2) | 19% | 43 | 23 games |
| 1st-place rate | 34.8% | 26.5% (18.5% to 34.6%) | 15% | 87 | 23 games |
| 4th-place rate | 43.5% | 27.9% (19.7% to 36.0%) | 16% | 1 | 23 games |
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (90% interval) | Weight of the record | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 20.3% | 20.1% (17.6% to 22.6%) | 25% | 52 | 266 hands |
| Deal-in rate | 9.8% | 10.7% (8.8% to 12.6%) | 22% | 72 | 266 hands |
| Riichi rate | 23.7% | 23.0% (20.3% to 25.6%) | 26% | 52 | 266 hands |
| Call rate | 19.2% | 19.9% (16.1% to 23.7%) | 80% | 15 | 266 hands |
| First riichi rate | 79.4% | 76.4% (72.0% to 80.9%) | 12% | 77 | 63 riichi |
| Average riichi turn | 8.71 | 9.17 (8.75 to 9.59) | 27% | 92 | 63 riichi |
| Average win value | 6,957 | 6,656 (6,081 to 7,231) | 18% | 69 | 54 wins |
| Average deal-in value | 6,000 | 5,656 (5,099 to 6,213) | 8% | 32 | 26 deal-ins |
| Win efficiency | 1,549 | 1,476 (1,371 to 1,581) | 3% | 60 | 266 hands |
| Deal-in loss | 606 | 635 (527 to 743) | 10% | 63 | 266 hands |
| Net efficiency | 943 | 848 (624 to 1,072) | 12% | 69 | 266 hands |
| Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten) | 44.0% | 41.5% (34.7% to 48.4%) | 22% | 55 | 50 hands facing riichi |
| Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten) | 51.1% | 34.3% (27.4% to 41.2%) | 34% | 100 | 47 hands facing riichi |
| Tenpai rate after the first call | 25.5% | 25.6% (18.5% to 32.7%) | 45% | 55 | 51 first calls |
| Average win turn | 11.93 | 12.37 (12.22 to 12.52) | 1% | 77 | 54 wins |
| Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws | 40.4% | 40.1% (33.2% to 47.1%) | 21% | 46 | 47 exhaustive draws |
| Staying in vs riichi | 10.8% | 13.9% (11.9% to 15.8%) | 6% | 21 | 130 hands facing an opponent’s riichi |
| Tile efficiency match rate | 75.1% | 74.7% (73.0% to 76.5%) | 81% | 63 | 1,412 discards |
| Average ukeire loss (tiles) | 1.07 | 1.07 (0.96 to 1.17) | 70% | 58 | 1,365 discards |
| Breaking shape for value | 2.5% | 2.3% (1.8% to 2.8%) | 60% | 80 | 1,412 discards |
| Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted) | 7.99 | 8.16 (8.03 to 8.29) | 4% | 26 | 60 tenpai hands |
| Immediate riichi rate | 69.8% | 71.0% (64.7% to 77.3%) | 35% | 49 | 60 tenpai hands |
| Dama rate | 20.4% | 16.6% (11.2% to 22.1%) | 47% | 92 | 54 wins |
| Riichi income | 1,816 | 2,506 (1,719 to 3,293) | 15% | 12 | 63 riichi |
| Riichi win rate | 39.7% | 44.3% (37.9% to 50.8%) | 26% | 9 | 63 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate A | 14.3% | 14.3% (12.4% to 16.2%) | 2% | 52 | 63 riichi |
| Riichi deal-in rate B | 7.9% | 10.8% (8.3% to 13.4%) | 6% | 83 | 63 riichi |
| Riichi good-wait rate | 41.3% | 48.3% (42.4% to 54.1%) | 17% | 15 | 63 riichi |
| Riichi exhaustive draw rate | 17.5% | 18.9% (14.1% to 23.7%) | 21% | 49 | 63 riichi |
| Call income | 782 | 510 (46.47 to 973) | 8% | 66 | 51 calls |
| Win rate after calling | 35.3% | 30.7% (24.9% to 36.6%) | 17% | 89 | 51 calls |
| Deal-in rate after calling | 11.8% | 11.6% (7.5% to 15.6%) | 17% | 49 | 51 calls |
| Metric | Actual | Percentile | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starting hand (shanten) | +0.07 | 83 | 266 hands |
| Dora and red fives dealt | -0.06 | 12 | 266 hands |
| Draw luck | +0.6% | 92 | 3,234 tile draws |
| Ura-dora luck | +0.06 | 66 | 25 riichi wins |
| Ippatsu rate | +0.3% | 52 | 25 riichi wins |
| Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | -4.7% | 38 | 50 first riichi |
| Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate | 17.2% | 7 | 87 tsumo against |
| Points from luck (/game) | -0.2 | 52 | 23 games |
| Category | Frequency | Balance per hand | League average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins with riichi | 9.4% | +861 | +919 | -58 |
| Wins with calls | 6.8% | +417 | +382 | +34 |
| Dama wins | 4.1% | +272 | +173 | +99 |
| Deal-ins to riichi | 5.6% | -364 | -360 | -4 |
| Deal-ins to open hands | 4.1% | -260 | -203 | -57 |
| Deal-ins to dama | 0.0% | 0 | -101 | +101 |
| Others' tsumo | 32.7% | -961 | -752 | -208 |
| Other (exhaustive draws, etc.) | 37.2% | -53 | -60 | +7 |
| Total (per hand) | -89 |
Players with a similar styleclosest career style metrics first
- Kotaro UchikawaEX FurinkazanIn common: Efficiency first
- Sayaka OkadaKADOKAWA Sakura KnightsIn common: Efficiency first
- Masatoshi SarukawaFormer M.League playerIn common: Efficiency first
* Twelve style metrics, including call rate, riichi rate, win rate, deal-in rate, hand value, riichi speed and immediate riichi rate, are put on the same scale and compared; the players closest overall are listed. Metrics supported more strongly by the data receive more weight. The comparison shows how similar the players' styles are, not which is better. Differences are often small, so the order may change.