Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Player · 126 career games · 2023-24–2026-27

Futoshi Watanabe

Riichis and calls a lot, attacking in many hands. Stands out for rare dama, a high win rate and speed-first hands that maximise ukeire. Career record: +5.8pt per game, but allowing for luck the difference from average is not clear yet.

Actual / game
+5.8
126 career games
Skill estimate / game
+2.8
90% interval -1.9 to +7.6
Estimate, luck removed
+3.1
adjusted for starting hands, draws, ura-dora
Weight of the record
48%
share of the estimate from the record

Styleleague percentile, career

  • Average win value6,541
  • Riichi rate23.9%
  • Deal-in rate10.9%
  • Win rate21.6%
  • First riichi rate75.9%
  • Average riichi turn9.19
  • Call rate31.3%
  • Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws41.0%
  • Staying in vs riichi14.3%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)46.3%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)27.9%
  • Tile efficiency match rate75.3%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.12
  • Immediate riichi rate79.1%
  • Dama rate6.2%

Color only for metrics with a good side (red = good, blue = bad). Metrics of style, such as riichi rate, call rate and tile efficiency match rate, are gray. For tenpai turn, further right means later (a larger turn number). Values are estimates.

Placements126 career games, average placement 2.30

  • 1st28.6%36×
  • 2nd30.2%38×
  • 3rd23.8%30×
  • 4th17.5%22×

Riichi and callsbalance and outcome of hands with riichi or calls

  • Riichi income2,515
  • Riichi win rate47.0%
  • Riichi deal-in rate A14.2%
  • Riichi deal-in rate B11.0%
  • Riichi good-wait rate47.6%
  • Riichi exhaustive draw rate16.6%
  • Call income464
  • Win rate after calling30.3%
  • Deal-in rate after calling12.5%
  • Tenpai rate after the first call18.1%

Income is the average points won or lost in those hands (riichi sticks and honba included).

Net efficiency and morecalculated as on Mahjong Soul Paifuya, per hand

  • Net efficiency904
  • Deal-in loss638
  • Average win turn12.39

Deal-in loss = deal-in rate × average deal-in; net efficiency = win rate × average win − deal-in loss. Win and deal-in values include honba and riichi sticks. Win turn is the number of tiles discarded at the table when the win came ÷ 4 + 1. Win efficiency (win rate × average win) is not shown: players with a high win rate win smaller hands, the two cancel out, and differences between players cannot be told apart from chance.

Skill estimateleague percentile of the estimates

  • Points per game2.8
  • Points per game, luck removed3.1
  • Average placement2.41

Luckfurther right is luckier; values are differences from the league average (the dealer tsumo rate is the rate itself)

  • Points from luck (/game)+0.3
  • Draw luck+0.4%
  • Starting hand (shanten)-0.01
  • Dora and red fives dealt-0.02
  • Ura-dora luck+0.07
  • Ippatsu rate-1.2%
  • Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)-4.2%
  • Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate12.0%

Where the points came fromchange in expected points, all stages

  • Own wins+53.1
  • Deal-ins-20.2
  • Others' tsumo-25.4
  • Ron between others-1.8
  • Exhaustive draws+0.2
Change in expected points per game. Total +6.0pt/game (126 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins343+6696.4+53.1
Deal-ins166-2547.1-20.2
Others' tsumo435-3194.8-25.4
Ron between others330-227.8-1.8
Exhaustive draws257+27.7+0.2

Hand balance breakdownpoints won or lost per hand, all stages

CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi11.6%+983+919+64
Wins with calls9.7%+551+382+169
Dama wins1.1%+97+173-76
Deal-ins to riichi4.8%-335-360+25
Deal-ins to open hands4.6%-222-203-19
Deal-ins to dama1.4%-107-101-6
Others' tsumo28.4%-805-752-53
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)38.3%-55-60+5
Total (per hand)+108
Every career number (estimate, 90% interval, weight of the record)
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.302.41 (2.29 to 2.52)46%100126 games
Points per game5.82.8 (-1.9 to 7.6)48%94126 games
Points per game, luck removed5.53.1 (-1.2 to 7.4)56%98126 games
1st-place rate28.6%26.8% (22.2% to 31.4%)50%82126 games
4th-place rate17.5%21.1% (16.4% to 25.8%)51%100126 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate22.4%21.6% (20.2% to 22.9%)66%961,531 hands
Deal-in rate10.8%10.9% (9.8% to 11.9%)62%541,531 hands
Riichi rate24.5%23.9% (22.5% to 25.4%)67%861,531 hands
Call rate31.7%31.3% (29.6% to 33.1%)96%961,531 hands
First riichi rate75.7%75.9% (73.3% to 78.4%)45%35375 riichi
Average riichi turn9.139.19 (8.96 to 9.42)69%82375 riichi
Average win value6,5066,541 (6,230 to 6,852)58%37343 wins
Average deal-in value5,6275,626 (5,288 to 5,965)36%54166 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,6311,498 (1,416 to 1,579)15%961,531 hands
Deal-in loss637638 (574 to 703)40%491,531 hands
Net efficiency994904 (773 to 1,035)44%921,531 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)50.2%46.3% (42.3% to 50.2%)58%100249 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)28.6%27.9% (24.1% to 31.6%)75%68269 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call17.1%18.1% (15.0% to 21.1%)89%1485 first calls
Average win turn12.5412.39 (12.27 to 12.52)8%23343 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws41.6%41.0% (37.1% to 44.9%)59%66257 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi14.8%14.3% (13.0% to 15.6%)28%74783 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate75.4%75.3% (74.5% to 76.1%)96%868,125 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)0.970.98 (0.93 to 1.03)93%217,825 discards
Breaking shape for value2.3%2.3% (2.1% to 2.5%)89%828,125 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)7.888.12 (8.02 to 8.22)16%3312 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate81.8%79.1% (75.5% to 82.7%)74%98312 tenpai hands
Dama rate5.0%6.2% (3.5% to 9.0%)85%1343 wins
Riichi income2,4092,515 (2,072 to 2,959)50%27375 riichi
Riichi win rate47.5%47.0% (43.5% to 50.5%)68%74375 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A13.6%14.2% (12.7% to 15.7%)13%64375 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B10.9%11.0% (9.3% to 12.7%)29%52375 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate45.9%47.6% (44.4% to 50.8%)56%15375 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate14.9%16.6% (14.0% to 19.3%)61%11375 riichi
Call income436464 (218 to 710)45%39485 calls
Win rate after calling30.5%30.3% (27.5% to 33.1%)65%60485 calls
Deal-in rate after calling13.0%12.5% (10.5% to 14.4%)65%19485 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)-0.01291,531 hands
Dora and red fives dealt-0.0291,531 hands
Draw luck+0.4%9818,180 tile draws
Ura-dora luck+0.0786178 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate-1.2%33178 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)-4.2%5284 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate12.0%58435 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)+0.364126 games

By seasonRegular Season

2026-27 (15 games · skill estimate 1.5pt/game)

Style

  • Average win value6,612
  • Riichi rate22.6%
  • Deal-in rate10.7%
  • Win rate20.7%
  • First riichi rate76.0%
  • Average riichi turn9.42
  • Call rate32.6%
  • Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws40.5%
  • Staying in vs riichi14.3%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)42.5%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)23.6%
  • Tile efficiency match rate71.4%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.16
  • Immediate riichi rate72.6%
  • Dama rate9.0%

Where the points came from

  • Own wins+59.7
  • Deal-ins-19.6
  • Others' tsumo-22.7
  • Ron between others-3.5
  • Exhaustive draws+1.6
Change in expected points per game. Total +15.5pt/game (15 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins41+895.4+59.7
Deal-ins16-293.6-19.6
Others' tsumo52-339.9-22.7
Ron between others32-52.1-3.5
Exhaustive draws30+23.3+1.6

Luck

  • Points from luck (/game)+6.4
  • Draw luck+0.5%
  • Starting hand (shanten)-0.01
  • Dora and red fives dealt+0.04
  • Ura-dora luck-0.07
  • Ippatsu rate+9.7%
  • Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)-5.7%
  • Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate13.5%
Every number for 2026-27
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.132.46 (2.25 to 2.68)9%8915 games
Points per game15.51.5 (-7.4 to 10.5)10%8715 games
Points per game, luck removed9.11.2 (-7.2 to 9.6)13%7915 games
1st-place rate46.7%27.3% (18.5% to 36.1%)10%9215 games
4th-place rate26.7%25.1% (16.2% to 34.0%)11%4115 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate24.0%20.7% (17.8% to 23.5%)18%89171 hands
Deal-in rate9.4%10.7% (8.5% to 12.8%)15%68171 hands
Riichi rate22.2%22.6% (19.6% to 25.7%)19%41171 hands
Call rate36.3%32.6% (28.1% to 37.1%)72%100171 hands
First riichi rate76.3%76.0% (71.2% to 80.9%)8%4938 riichi
Average riichi turn9.829.42 (8.93 to 9.92)18%1238 riichi
Average win value6,7416,612 (5,996 to 7,227)14%7941 wins
Average deal-in value6,8505,689 (5,095 to 6,283)5%1216 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,8151,481 (1,372 to 1,589)2%92171 hands
Deal-in loss648639 (524 to 755)7%41171 hands
Net efficiency1,167862 (620 to 1,103)8%84171 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)53.8%42.5% (34.4% to 50.5%)13%8426 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)18.9%23.6% (16.1% to 31.2%)29%2137 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call27.4%26.5% (19.9% to 33.2%)50%6862 first calls
Average win turn12.7212.38 (12.23 to 12.53)1%1741 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws43.3%40.5% (32.7% to 48.3%)14%6530 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi19.4%14.3% (12.3% to 16.3%)4%8793 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate70.8%71.4% (69.3% to 73.4%)74%22943 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)1.151.11 (0.99 to 1.23)60%87903 discards
Breaking shape for value2.8%2.4% (1.8% to 2.9%)50%87943 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)7.968.16 (8.03 to 8.30)2%4428 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate76.2%72.6% (64.4% to 80.7%)20%6828 tenpai hands
Dama rate2.4%9.0% (3.0% to 15.0%)40%141 wins
Riichi income1,3922,509 (1,639 to 3,378)9%2038 riichi
Riichi win rate44.7%45.8% (38.2% to 53.3%)18%5338 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A18.4%14.4% (12.4% to 16.3%)1%2238 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B15.8%11.2% (8.5% to 14.0%)4%2038 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate31.6%47.7% (41.2% to 54.2%)11%138 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate15.8%18.8% (13.3% to 24.3%)14%2838 riichi
Call income1,745605 (156 to 1,054)9%10062 calls
Win rate after calling37.1%31.2% (25.7% to 36.8%)20%9262 calls
Deal-in rate after calling9.7%11.2% (7.3% to 15.0%)19%5762 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)-0.0133171 hands
Dora and red fives dealt+0.0476171 hands
Draw luck+0.5%812,084 tile draws
Ura-dora luck-0.072517 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate+9.7%9217 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)-5.7%2229 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate13.5%4552 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)+6.48415 games
Hand balance breakdown
CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi9.9%+849+919-70
Wins with calls13.5%+928+382+546
Dama wins0.6%+37+173-135
Deal-ins to riichi5.3%-485-360-125
Deal-ins to open hands3.5%-185-203+18
Deal-ins to dama0.6%-13-101+87
Others' tsumo30.4%-785-752-32
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)36.3%-26-60+33
Total (per hand)+320
2025-26 (33 games · skill estimate 1.7pt/game)

Style

  • Average win value6,461
  • Riichi rate22.9%
  • Deal-in rate10.6%
  • Win rate21.4%
  • First riichi rate75.6%
  • Average riichi turn9.20
  • Call rate31.8%
  • Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws40.4%
  • Staying in vs riichi14.3%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)44.4%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)23.3%
  • Tile efficiency match rate76.3%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.15
  • Immediate riichi rate74.3%
  • Dama rate8.4%

Where the points came from

  • Own wins+55.0
  • Deal-ins-20.4
  • Others' tsumo-23.9
  • Ron between others-1.3
  • Exhaustive draws-0.7
Change in expected points per game. Total +8.7pt/game (33 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins95+1813.7+55.0
Deal-ins39-671.7-20.4
Others' tsumo117-789.0-23.9
Ron between others77-41.5-1.3
Exhaustive draws63-23.1-0.7

Luck

  • Points from luck (/game)+4.0
  • Draw luck+0.5%
  • Starting hand (shanten)-0.00
  • Dora and red fives dealt-0.01
  • Ura-dora luck+0.26
  • Ippatsu rate+3.0%
  • Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)-6.0%
  • Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate12.8%
Every number for 2025-26
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.272.46 (2.27 to 2.64)18%9033 games
Points per game8.61.7 (-5.8 to 9.2)20%8533 games
Points per game, luck removed4.51.1 (-5.6 to 7.9)25%7233 games
1st-place rate30.3%26.1% (18.8% to 33.4%)20%7233 games
4th-place rate18.2%23.5% (16.1% to 30.8%)21%8633 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate24.3%21.4% (19.2% to 23.6%)33%97391 hands
Deal-in rate10.0%10.6% (9.0% to 12.3%)29%75391 hands
Riichi rate23.3%22.9% (20.6% to 25.2%)35%59391 hands
Call rate33.2%31.8% (28.5% to 35.0%)86%97391 hands
First riichi rate73.6%75.6% (71.5% to 79.7%)17%3991 riichi
Average riichi turn8.939.20 (8.83 to 9.57)35%8291 riichi
Average win value6,1246,461 (5,978 to 6,944)28%1695 wins
Average deal-in value5,4925,610 (5,091 to 6,129)12%4739 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,6801,483 (1,382 to 1,584)4%85391 hands
Deal-in loss575630 (530 to 729)15%72391 hands
Net efficiency1,104880 (674 to 1,085)16%87391 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)53.4%44.4% (38.4% to 50.5%)29%9573 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)20.3%23.3% (17.2% to 29.3%)43%2169 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call14.6%18.2% (13.0% to 23.4%)68%1130 first calls
Average win turn12.4212.38 (12.24 to 12.52)2%3495 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws41.3%40.4% (34.0% to 46.7%)26%5763 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi16.9%14.3% (12.5% to 16.1%)9%87201 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate76.8%76.3% (74.8% to 77.8%)86%822,032 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)0.940.97 (0.87 to 1.06)77%371,960 discards
Breaking shape for value1.7%1.8% (1.4% to 2.2%)68%422,032 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)7.858.15 (8.03 to 8.28)5%679 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate78.1%74.3% (68.6% to 80.1%)41%8779 tenpai hands
Dama rate5.3%8.4% (3.9% to 13.0%)61%695 wins
Riichi income2,6852,635 (1,918 to 3,352)20%4991 riichi
Riichi win rate48.4%46.8% (41.1% to 52.5%)34%5291 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A16.5%14.4% (12.6% to 16.2%)3%2691 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B14.3%11.3% (8.9% to 13.8%)9%1691 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate49.5%49.7% (44.4% to 54.9%)23%5791 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate14.3%17.9% (13.6% to 22.2%)27%1991 riichi
Call income745533 (150 to 916)18%75130 calls
Win rate after calling35.4%31.7% (27.3% to 36.0%)34%87130 calls
Deal-in rate after calling10.8%11.3% (8.2% to 14.3%)34%64130 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)-0.0039391 hands
Dora and red fives dealt-0.0157391 hands
Draw luck+0.5%674,606 tile draws
Ura-dora luck+0.269744 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate+3.0%7244 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)-6.0%1667 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate12.8%39117 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)+4.08533 games
Hand balance breakdown
CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi11.3%+1,019+919+100
Wins with calls11.8%+581+382+198
Dama wins1.3%+80+173-93
Deal-ins to riichi4.1%-306-360+54
Deal-ins to open hands4.9%-228-203-25
Deal-ins to dama1.0%-74-101+27
Others' tsumo29.9%-754-752-2
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)35.8%-66-60-7
Total (per hand)+250
2024-25 (26 games · skill estimate 1.2pt/game)

Style

  • Average win value6,488
  • Riichi rate23.3%
  • Deal-in rate11.0%
  • Win rate20.8%
  • First riichi rate76.3%
  • Average riichi turn9.27
  • Call rate29.8%
  • Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws42.1%
  • Staying in vs riichi14.0%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)43.6%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)29.2%
  • Tile efficiency match rate78.3%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.15
  • Immediate riichi rate77.8%
  • Dama rate9.1%

Where the points came from

  • Own wins+53.4
  • Deal-ins-22.3
  • Others' tsumo-23.4
  • Ron between others-1.1
  • Exhaustive draws+1.0
Change in expected points per game. Total +7.6pt/game (26 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins72+1388.1+53.4
Deal-ins35-580.3-22.3
Others' tsumo83-607.5-23.4
Ron between others74-29.5-1.1
Exhaustive draws53+26.0+1.0

Luck

  • Points from luck (/game)+0.6
  • Draw luck+0.3%
  • Starting hand (shanten)+0.02
  • Dora and red fives dealt-0.03
  • Ura-dora luck+0.06
  • Ippatsu rate-11.2%
  • Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)-2.5%
  • Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate9.6%
Every number for 2024-25
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.152.45 (2.25 to 2.64)15%9026 games
Points per game7.71.2 (-6.8 to 9.2)16%7726 games
Points per game, luck removed7.11.5 (-5.8 to 8.8)21%7226 games
1st-place rate26.9%25.4% (17.6% to 33.2%)17%5826 games
4th-place rate11.5%22.5% (14.6% to 30.4%)18%8626 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate22.7%20.8% (18.4% to 23.1%)29%83317 hands
Deal-in rate11.0%11.0% (9.2% to 12.7%)25%55317 hands
Riichi rate24.6%23.3% (20.8% to 25.8%)30%75317 hands
Call rate31.2%29.8% (26.3% to 33.3%)83%89317 hands
First riichi rate78.2%76.3% (72.1% to 80.6%)15%6978 riichi
Average riichi turn9.129.27 (8.88 to 9.66)31%6978 riichi
Average win value6,1386,488 (5,959 to 7,018)23%3572 wins
Average deal-in value6,2495,692 (5,162 to 6,222)11%735 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,5561,477 (1,374 to 1,580)4%72317 hands
Deal-in loss711648 (543 to 752)12%26317 hands
Net efficiency845837 (621 to 1,052)14%43317 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)54.3%43.6% (36.6% to 50.6%)20%8946 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)36.2%29.2% (22.3% to 36.1%)34%9247 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call17.2%20.4% (14.7% to 26.1%)62%799 first calls
Average win turn11.8712.37 (12.22 to 12.52)2%9272 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws49.1%42.1% (35.4% to 48.8%)23%8653 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi13.3%14.0% (12.1% to 15.9%)7%38150 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate79.3%78.3% (76.7% to 79.9%)84%971,722 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)0.720.81 (0.71 to 0.91)74%41,661 discards
Breaking shape for value2.1%2.1% (1.6% to 2.5%)64%521,722 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)7.708.15 (8.02 to 8.28)4%164 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate88.5%77.8% (71.6% to 84.0%)36%10064 tenpai hands
Dama rate5.6%9.1% (4.2% to 14.1%)54%1872 wins
Riichi income2,4002,584 (1,837 to 3,332)17%4978 riichi
Riichi win rate44.9%45.7% (39.7% to 51.7%)31%4378 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A10.3%14.2% (12.3% to 16.1%)3%8978 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B7.7%10.8% (8.3% to 13.3%)8%8378 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate44.9%48.7% (43.2% to 54.2%)21%1878 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate21.8%19.9% (15.4% to 24.4%)24%7778 riichi
Call income105432 (22.50 to 842)14%1599 calls
Win rate after calling33.3%30.8% (26.0% to 35.6%)28%7399 calls
Deal-in rate after calling16.2%12.8% (9.5% to 16.2%)28%999 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)+0.0269317 hands
Dora and red fives dealt-0.0326317 hands
Draw luck+0.3%693,766 tile draws
Ura-dora luck+0.067735 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate-11.2%435 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)-2.5%4361 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate9.6%8983 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)+0.66326 games
Hand balance breakdown
CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi11.0%+892+919-27
Wins with calls10.4%+521+382+139
Dama wins1.3%+143+173-30
Deal-ins to riichi5.4%-368-360-8
Deal-ins to open hands3.8%-166-203+37
Deal-ins to dama1.9%-196-101-95
Others' tsumo26.2%-759-752-7
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)40.1%-38-60+22
Total (per hand)+29
2023-24 (26 games · skill estimate 0.2pt/game)

Style

  • Average win value6,540
  • Riichi rate24.2%
  • Deal-in rate10.9%
  • Win rate20.2%
  • First riichi rate74.9%
  • Average riichi turn9.28
  • Call rate26.5%
  • Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws39.1%
  • Staying in vs riichi14.1%
  • Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)41.0%
  • Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)28.9%
  • Tile efficiency match rate73.8%
  • Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.17
  • Immediate riichi rate76.9%
  • Dama rate9.6%

Where the points came from

  • Own wins+46.4
  • Deal-ins-14.7
  • Others' tsumo-28.0
  • Ron between others-2.1
  • Exhaustive draws0.0
Change in expected points per game. Total +1.5pt/game (26 games).
As a table
Hand resultHandsTotalPer game
Own wins66+1206.4+46.4
Deal-ins35-383.1-14.7
Others' tsumo85-729.2-28.0
Ron between others76-54.6-2.1
Exhaustive draws58+0.30.0

Luck

  • Points from luck (/game)-3.9
  • Draw luck-0.2%
  • Starting hand (shanten)+0.02
  • Dora and red fives dealt-0.07
  • Ura-dora luck+0.02
  • Ippatsu rate+1.7%
  • Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+4.0%
  • Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate12.9%
Every number for 2023-24
Results
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Average placement2.382.48 (2.29 to 2.68)15%7726 games
Points per game1.40.2 (-7.8 to 8.2)16%6926 games
Points per game, luck removed5.31.1 (-6.2 to 8.4)21%7226 games
1st-place rate19.2%24.1% (16.3% to 31.9%)17%3226 games
4th-place rate15.4%23.2% (15.3% to 31.1%)18%9226 games
Style
MetricActualEstimate (90% interval)Weight of the recordPercentileCount
Win rate20.6%20.2% (17.8% to 22.5%)29%58320 hands
Deal-in rate10.9%10.9% (9.1% to 12.7%)25%55320 hands
Riichi rate27.5%24.2% (21.7% to 26.7%)30%92320 hands
Call rate27.2%26.5% (22.9% to 30.0%)83%83320 hands
First riichi rate69.3%74.9% (70.8% to 79.0%)16%788 riichi
Average riichi turn9.189.28 (8.91 to 9.66)34%5888 riichi
Average win value6,3536,540 (5,996 to 7,084)21%3266 wins
Average deal-in value4,4865,505 (4,975 to 6,035)11%10035 deal-ins
Win efficiency1,4561,473 (1,370 to 1,577)4%38320 hands
Deal-in loss524625 (521 to 729)12%89320 hands
Net efficiency932849 (633 to 1,064)14%72320 hands
Push rate vs riichi (1-shanten)41.5%41.0% (34.3% to 47.7%)23%3853 hands facing riichi
Push rate vs riichi (2+ shanten)34.5%28.9% (22.4% to 35.5%)38%8355 hands facing riichi
Tenpai rate after the first call14.9%19.4% (13.4% to 25.4%)59%487 first calls
Average win turn12.8912.39 (12.24 to 12.53)2%766 wins
Tenpai rate at exhaustive draws36.2%39.1% (32.6% to 45.6%)24%2958 exhaustive draws
Staying in vs riichi13.9%14.1% (12.2% to 15.9%)8%52165 hands facing an opponent’s riichi
Tile efficiency match rate73.9%73.8% (72.2% to 75.4%)84%491,723 discards
Average ukeire loss (tiles)0.981.00 (0.90 to 1.10)74%411,663 discards
Breaking shape for value2.8%2.5% (2.1% to 3.0%)64%921,723 discards
Tenpai turn (luck-adjusted)8.178.17 (8.04 to 8.29)4%6075 tenpai hands
Immediate riichi rate84.8%76.9% (71.1% to 82.8%)40%10075 tenpai hands
Dama rate6.1%9.6% (4.5% to 14.7%)52%466 wins
Riichi income2,3522,571 (1,848 to 3,295)19%2988 riichi
Riichi win rate47.7%46.6% (40.8% to 52.3%)33%6688 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate A10.2%14.2% (12.3% to 16.0%)3%9288 riichi
Riichi deal-in rate B4.5%10.5% (8.0% to 12.9%)9%10088 riichi
Riichi good-wait rate43.2%48.3% (42.9% to 53.6%)23%1288 riichi
Riichi exhaustive draw rate13.6%17.8% (13.4% to 22.1%)27%988 riichi
Call income-221396 (-24.97 to 818)13%487 calls
Win rate after calling23.0%28.1% (23.1% to 33.1%)25%487 calls
Deal-in rate after calling13.8%12.1% (8.6% to 15.6%)25%2487 calls
Luck (difference from the league average)
MetricActualPercentileCount
Starting hand (shanten)+0.0249320 hands
Dora and red fives dealt-0.077320 hands
Draw luck-0.2%493,754 tile draws
Ura-dora luck+0.025542 riichi wins
Ippatsu rate+1.7%6642 riichi wins
Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi)+4.0%7561 first riichi
Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate12.9%2985 tsumo against
Points from luck (/game)-3.91826 games
Hand balance breakdown
CategoryFrequencyBalance per handLeague averageDifference
Wins with riichi13.1%+1,030+919+111
Wins with calls6.3%+370+382-13
Dama wins1.3%+57+173-116
Deal-ins to riichi3.8%-211-360+149
Deal-ins to open hands5.9%-264-203-61
Deal-ins to dama1.3%-62-101+39
Others' tsumo26.6%-834-752-82
Other (exhaustive draws, etc.)41.9%-66-60-6
Total (per hand)+19

Columns about this player

Players with a similar styleclosest career style metrics first

  1. Maki AsamiAkasaka DrivensIn common: Dama rarely, Efficiency first, Call-heavy
  2. Yu SuzukiU-NEXT PiratesIn common: High win rate, Call-heavy, Dama rarely
  3. Tomohiro HondaTEAM RAIDENIn common: Dama rarely, Efficiency first, Riichi-heavy

* Twelve style metrics, including call rate, riichi rate, win rate, deal-in rate, hand value, riichi speed and immediate riichi rate, are put on the same scale and compared; the players closest overall are listed. Metrics supported more strongly by the data receive more weight. The comparison shows how similar the players' styles are, not which is better. Differences are often small, so the order may change.