例行賽 29人 180半莊
2019-20 賽季
每半莊的實際成績在選手之間差距達31pt,但扣除運氣後估算的實力推估差距只有3.3pt。排名表上的差距大多來自運氣。
實力推估的最大差距
3.3
pt/半莊。實際成績的差距為31.0
實際成績與實力推估每半莊,依運氣加分・扣分排序
運氣帶來的得分來自配牌・摸牌・裏寶牌,pt/半莊
以聯盟平均的運氣為0,將配牌、摸牌、裏寶牌的好壞換算成得分後相當於幾pt(計算方法 4(日文))。
實力推估每半莊得分,依推估由高到低,10半莊以上
| 選手 | 半莊 | 90%區間 | 實力推估 | 扣除運氣的推估 | 實際成績 | 實際成績 − 推估 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1魚谷侑未 | 27 | +1.8 | +3.1 | +16.7 | +14.9 | |
| 2村上淳 | 27 | +1.5 | +1.7 | +13.6 | +12.1 | |
| 3近藤誠一 | 22 | +1.4 | +2.3 | +15.1 | +13.7 | |
| 4白鳥翔 | 24 | +1.2 | +0.3 | +12.1 | +10.9 | |
| 5沢崎誠 | 41 | +1.0 | +0.6 | +6.2 | +5.2 | |
| 6多井隆晴 | 27 | +0.8 | 0.0 | +7.8 | +7.0 | |
| 7小林剛 | 30 | +0.8 | +1.7 | +7.0 | +6.2 | |
| 8黒沢咲 | 28 | +0.6 | -0.6 | +5.4 | +4.8 | |
| 9高宮まり | 21 | +0.4 | -0.2 | +4.7 | +4.3 | |
| 10前原雄大 | 20 | +0.3 | -0.4 | +4.0 | +3.7 | |
| 11佐々木寿人 | 29 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +2.8 | +2.5 | |
| 12瀬戸熊直樹 | 33 | +0.1 | -0.6 | +0.6 | +0.6 | |
| 13日向藍子 | 16 | +0.1 | 0.0 | +1.2 | +1.1 | |
| 14勝又健志 | 35 | 0.0 | +0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 以下低於聯盟平均 | ||||||
| 15内川幸太郎 | 30 | -0.1 | +0.2 | -1.1 | -1.0 | |
| 16藤崎智 | 20 | -0.3 | -0.6 | -3.3 | -3.0 | |
| 17瑞原明奈 | 16 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -6.4 | -5.9 | |
| 18鈴木たろう | 26 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -4.8 | -4.3 | |
| 19和久津晶 | 15 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -8.7 | -8.1 | |
| 20朝倉康心 | 28 | -0.6 | +0.1 | -5.1 | -4.6 | |
| 21丸山奏子 | 10 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -14.0 | -13.4 | |
| 22岡田紗佳 | 19 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -8.0 | -7.4 | |
| 23茅森早香 | 26 | -0.6 | -0.2 | -6.1 | -5.4 | |
| 24石橋伸洋 | 16 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -10.5 | -9.8 | |
| 25滝沢和典 | 35 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -5.4 | -4.6 | |
| 26萩原聖人 | 29 | -1.0 | -1.4 | -8.7 | -7.7 | |
| 27松本吉弘 | 23 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -10.7 | -9.7 | |
| 28二階堂亜樹 | 20 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -14.3 | -13.1 | |
| 29園田賢 | 27 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -14.0 | -12.5 | |
色帶是實力推估的90%區間,圓點是推估值,直線是聯盟平均(0)。實力推估是比賽數越少、就越往聯盟平均拉近估算的值。「扣除運氣的推估」則是再從得分中扣除配牌、摸牌、裏寶牌的運氣後估算的值(計算方法(日文))。「實際成績 − 推估」的長條,表示實際成績高於推估的部分(藍)與低於推估的部分(紅)。
運氣與聯盟平均的差。越藍運氣越好,越紅運氣越差
| 選手 | 運氣帶來的得分(/半莊) | 配牌好壞(向聽數) | 配牌的寶牌・赤寶牌 | 摸牌好壞 | 裏寶牌運 | 一發率 | 不易被追立(/先制立直) | 莊家被重自摸率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 白鳥翔 | +9.8 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.2% | +0.24 | +7.5% | +7.4% | 6.1% |
| 黒沢咲 | +9.2 | -0.06 | -0.06 | +0.9% | +0.05 | +3.9% | +12.1% | 12.2% |
| 多井隆晴 | +8.2 | -0.09 | +0.05 | +0.8% | +0.05 | +3.1% | -1.8% | 11.5% |
| 前原雄大 | +7.4 | -0.02 | +0.02 | +0.1% | +0.13 | +0.3% | -7.3% | 10.7% |
| 高宮まり | +6.4 | -0.02 | +0.06 | +0.2% | -0.08 | +3.5% | +8.4% | 8.2% |
| 瀬戸熊直樹 | +4.2 | +0.03 | -0.00 | -0.1% | +0.02 | +0.6% | +4.8% | 14.8% |
| 沢崎誠 | +3.3 | -0.09 | +0.00 | +0.3% | +0.10 | +4.6% | -1.7% | 8.8% |
| 藤崎智 | +2.0 | -0.07 | +0.06 | +0.3% | +0.10 | +6.3% | +3.9% | 14.8% |
| 村上淳 | +2.0 | -0.07 | +0.03 | +0.2% | +0.14 | +1.9% | -1.0% | 7.5% |
| 日向藍子 | +1.7 | +0.01 | -0.04 | +0.5% | -0.07 | -1.6% | +4.8% | 13.3% |
| 松本吉弘 | +1.4 | -0.04 | -0.06 | -0.3% | +0.17 | +0.9% | -1.1% | 15.5% |
| 瑞原明奈 | +0.5 | -0.02 | +0.08 | +0.2% | +0.17 | -19.7% | -13.1% | 5.7% |
| 萩原聖人 | +0.5 | +0.03 | -0.01 | +0.5% | +0.06 | -4.4% | -0.4% | 14.9% |
| 滝沢和典 | -0.5 | -0.06 | -0.00 | +0.3% | +0.11 | +6.3% | -0.1% | 14.2% |
| 佐々木寿人 | -0.9 | +0.02 | -0.01 | +0.1% | +0.07 | +0.3% | +5.3% | 8.0% |
| 鈴木たろう | -1.9 | -0.09 | -0.08 | -0.4% | +0.03 | +20.3% | +11.4% | 17.4% |
| 岡田紗佳 | -2.2 | -0.02 | -0.03 | +0.4% | -0.12 | -0.4% | -2.0% | 8.3% |
| 内川幸太郎 | -2.7 | -0.06 | +0.06 | -0.2% | +0.03 | -7.2% | -0.1% | 12.6% |
| 和久津晶 | -3.5 | +0.09 | +0.04 | +0.4% | -0.13 | +0.3% | -3.7% | 14.0% |
| 小林剛 | -3.6 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.2% | +0.25 | -6.4% | +4.0% | 15.7% |
| 近藤誠一 | -3.8 | -0.00 | -0.02 | +0.3% | -0.10 | +12.5% | +3.9% | 8.2% |
| 勝又健志 | -4.6 | +0.02 | -0.03 | +0.3% | -0.06 | -0.2% | -11.8% | 10.8% |
| 石橋伸洋 | -4.6 | -0.12 | +0.05 | +0.3% | +0.14 | -12.6% | +1.1% | 17.1% |
| 茅森早香 | -4.7 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.7% | +0.03 | +14.9% | -2.3% | 7.7% |
| 園田賢 | -4.9 | -0.11 | -0.02 | -0.2% | -0.23 | +2.8% | +5.7% | 17.6% |
| 魚谷侑未 | -5.1 | -0.02 | -0.00 | -0.0% | +0.13 | -4.9% | +1.7% | 2.5% |
| 二階堂亜樹 | -5.6 | +0.01 | +0.05 | -1.6% | -0.03 | -2.1% | -2.3% | 13.4% |
| 朝倉康心 | -5.8 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.1% | -0.19 | -16.9% | -1.6% | 17.6% |
| 丸山奏子 | -7.7 | +0.03 | -0.06 | +0.0% | +0.30 | +5.3% | -8.0% | 20.5% |
顏色深淺以各欄中最大的差距為基準。運氣帶來的得分,是將右側各項目換算成得分後的合計。
2019-20決定各場比賽的一局 得分與順位等官方成績請見M League 官方網站。