例行賽 36人 216半莊
2024-25 賽季
每半莊的實際成績在選手之間差距達47pt,但扣除運氣後估算的實力推估差距只有4.1pt。排名表上的差距大多來自運氣。
實力推估的最大差距
4.1
pt/半莊。實際成績的差距為46.7
實際成績與實力推估每半莊,依運氣加分・扣分排序
運氣帶來的得分來自配牌・摸牌・裏寶牌,pt/半莊
以聯盟平均的運氣為0,將配牌、摸牌、裏寶牌的好壞換算成得分後相當於幾pt(計算方法 4(日文))。
實力推估每半莊得分,依推估由高到低,10半莊以上
| 選手 | 半莊 | 90%區間 | 實力推估 | 扣除運氣的推估 | 實際成績 | 實際成績 − 推估 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1醍醐大 | 26 | +1.8 | +1.8 | +16.9 | +15.1 | |
| 2園田賢 | 27 | +1.6 | +1.4 | +14.8 | +13.2 | |
| 3白鳥翔 | 35 | +1.6 | +1.1 | +11.5 | +10.0 | |
| 4佐々木寿人 | 30 | +1.5 | +2.8 | +12.9 | +11.4 | |
| 5竹内元太 | 26 | +1.4 | +1.9 | +13.1 | +11.7 | |
| 6鈴木たろう | 25 | +1.1 | +1.4 | +10.5 | +9.4 | |
| 7浅見真紀 | 18 | +1.1 | +1.7 | +14.2 | +13.1 | |
| 8仲林圭 | 27 | +1.0 | +1.4 | +9.5 | +8.5 | |
| 9渡辺太 | 26 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +7.7 | +6.9 | |
| 10鈴木優 | 23 | +0.7 | +1.7 | +7.9 | +7.1 | |
| 11瀬戸熊直樹 | 21 | +0.7 | +1.3 | +8.1 | +7.4 | |
| 12本田朋広 | 31 | +0.6 | +0.7 | +5.0 | +4.4 | |
| 13瑞原明奈 | 25 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +4.8 | +4.3 | |
| 14黒沢咲 | 20 | +0.4 | -0.1 | +5.0 | +4.6 | |
| 15伊達朱里紗 | 23 | +0.4 | -0.2 | +4.3 | +3.9 | |
| 16日向藍子 | 20 | +0.3 | -0.2 | +4.0 | +3.6 | |
| 17渋川難波 | 27 | +0.3 | -0.4 | +2.8 | +2.5 | |
| 18堀慎吾 | 33 | +0.3 | 0.0 | +2.2 | +1.9 | |
| 19鈴木大介 | 29 | +0.2 | +1.0 | +1.7 | +1.5 | |
| 20二階堂亜樹 | 28 | +0.2 | -0.4 | +1.4 | +1.2 | |
| 以下低於聯盟平均 | ||||||
| 21滝沢和典 | 24 | -0.1 | +0.4 | -1.5 | -1.3 | |
| 22内川幸太郎 | 19 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -3.0 | -2.7 | |
| 23小林剛 | 21 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -3.7 | -3.4 | |
| 24萩原聖人 | 24 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -4.0 | -3.6 | |
| 25菅原千瑛 | 23 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -8.5 | -7.7 | |
| 26浅井堂岐 | 23 | -0.9 | -1.2 | -9.4 | -8.5 | |
| 27茅森早香 | 21 | -0.9 | -1.3 | -10.6 | -9.7 | |
| 28二階堂瑠美 | 16 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -13.8 | -12.9 | |
| 29勝又健志 | 27 | -1.0 | -1.6 | -9.0 | -8.0 | |
| 30多井隆晴 | 19 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -12.8 | -11.8 | |
| 31高宮まり | 19 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -12.8 | -11.8 | |
| 32松ヶ瀬隆弥 | 25 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -13.0 | -11.7 | |
| 33猿川真寿 | 24 | -1.6 | -1.8 | -16.8 | -15.1 | |
| 34松本吉弘 | 22 | -1.7 | -2.1 | -19.4 | -17.7 | |
| 35岡田紗佳 | 17 | -2.1 | -2.7 | -29.8 | -27.7 | |
| 36中田花奈 | 20 | -2.4 | -2.4 | -28.8 | -26.4 | |
色帶是實力推估的90%區間,圓點是推估值,直線是聯盟平均(0)。實力推估是比賽數越少、就越往聯盟平均拉近估算的值。「扣除運氣的推估」則是再從得分中扣除配牌、摸牌、裏寶牌的運氣後估算的值(計算方法(日文))。「實際成績 − 推估」的長條,表示實際成績高於推估的部分(藍)與低於推估的部分(紅)。
運氣與聯盟平均的差。越藍運氣越好,越紅運氣越差
| 選手 | 運氣帶來的得分(/半莊) | 配牌好壞(向聽數) | 配牌的寶牌・赤寶牌 | 摸牌好壞 | 裏寶牌運 | 一發率 | 不易被追立(/先制立直) | 莊家被重自摸率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 黒沢咲 | +6.0 | +0.02 | -0.09 | +0.4% | -0.04 | -16.0% | +4.7% | 10.1% |
| 日向藍子 | +5.8 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +1.1% | +0.01 | -1.2% | -9.0% | 10.8% |
| 渋川難波 | +5.8 | -0.14 | -0.00 | +1.1% | +0.07 | -0.3% | -2.1% | 15.5% |
| 白鳥翔 | +5.6 | +0.01 | -0.02 | -0.1% | +0.11 | +3.2% | -9.4% | 10.6% |
| 伊達朱里紗 | +5.5 | -0.04 | -0.07 | +1.1% | -0.10 | -0.2% | +6.3% | 13.3% |
| 園田賢 | +4.8 | -0.02 | -0.00 | +0.5% | -0.09 | -6.2% | -2.2% | 11.1% |
| 二階堂亜樹 | +4.4 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.4% | +0.04 | -1.6% | -4.3% | 10.3% |
| 醍醐大 | +3.8 | -0.08 | +0.02 | +0.6% | -0.04 | +6.4% | +12.4% | 10.1% |
| 勝又健志 | +2.5 | -0.05 | +0.00 | +0.5% | -0.02 | -4.4% | +2.7% | 6.7% |
| 瑞原明奈 | +2.3 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.9% | -0.13 | -10.1% | +0.8% | 10.5% |
| 内川幸太郎 | +2.2 | +0.08 | -0.01 | -0.1% | +0.08 | -1.2% | -1.8% | 10.0% |
| 堀慎吾 | +2.0 | +0.05 | -0.01 | +0.3% | -0.08 | +3.9% | +3.6% | 6.5% |
| 茅森早香 | +0.8 | -0.10 | -0.05 | +0.2% | -0.11 | +4.4% | -4.5% | 17.9% |
| 渡辺太 | +0.6 | +0.02 | -0.03 | +0.3% | +0.06 | -11.2% | -2.6% | 9.6% |
| 本田朋広 | +0.4 | +0.04 | -0.02 | -0.3% | +0.14 | +0.8% | -2.6% | 7.3% |
| 小林剛 | +0.2 | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.1% | -0.03 | -0.7% | -5.7% | 18.8% |
| 鈴木たろう | +0.1 | +0.00 | -0.09 | +0.1% | -0.03 | +13.6% | +3.3% | 10.5% |
| 浅井堂岐 | +0.1 | +0.01 | -0.01 | +0.2% | -0.03 | +1.3% | -4.9% | 13.2% |
| 仲林圭 | -0.3 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.9% | +0.10 | -6.6% | +2.2% | 20.3% |
| 岡田紗佳 | -0.9 | +0.02 | -0.02 | -1.4% | +0.01 | -3.1% | -3.9% | 12.5% |
| 竹内元太 | -0.9 | -0.02 | -0.06 | +0.6% | +0.10 | -1.0% | -13.5% | 16.0% |
| 菅原千瑛 | -1.0 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.6% | -0.09 | -3.7% | +0.3% | 11.8% |
| 松本吉弘 | -1.8 | +0.03 | +0.02 | -0.5% | +0.19 | -5.5% | -4.5% | 10.5% |
| 萩原聖人 | -2.3 | -0.04 | +0.01 | +0.5% | -0.03 | +9.3% | -8.8% | 8.7% |
| 浅見真紀 | -2.4 | -0.05 | -0.06 | -0.7% | +0.19 | +0.3% | +2.0% | 11.9% |
| 猿川真寿 | -2.8 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.4% | -0.08 | -7.7% | +3.7% | 12.3% |
| 瀬戸熊直樹 | -2.9 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.9% | -0.18 | +5.3% | +4.9% | 10.7% |
| 高宮まり | -3.6 | -0.05 | +0.07 | -0.7% | -0.19 | -1.0% | +3.1% | 10.9% |
| 多井隆晴 | -3.7 | +0.04 | +0.02 | -1.2% | -0.07 | -5.5% | -14.7% | 13.2% |
| 滝沢和典 | -4.3 | +0.01 | +0.06 | +0.0% | -0.01 | -2.1% | -7.4% | 19.4% |
| 鈴木大介 | -4.6 | -0.07 | +0.02 | -0.9% | -0.10 | +0.3% | -5.9% | 13.8% |
| 佐々木寿人 | -5.1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | -1.4% | -0.02 | +7.3% | -1.4% | 13.7% |
| 松ヶ瀬隆弥 | -5.2 | -0.04 | +0.04 | -0.7% | -0.10 | -5.9% | +3.5% | 10.5% |
| 二階堂瑠美 | -5.2 | -0.10 | +0.01 | -0.2% | +0.05 | +0.3% | -5.9% | 12.2% |
| 鈴木優 | -6.0 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.5% | +0.06 | -1.3% | +5.3% | 17.8% |
| 中田花奈 | -6.9 | +0.04 | -0.05 | -0.3% | -0.02 | -3.7% | +3.4% | 14.1% |
顏色深淺以各欄中最大的差距為基準。運氣帶來的得分,是將右側各項目換算成得分後的合計。
2024-25決定各場比賽的一局 得分與順位等官方成績請見M League 官方網站。