例行賽 36人 216半莊
2023-24 賽季
每半莊的實際成績在選手之間差距達37pt,但扣除運氣後估算的實力推估差距只有2.9pt。排名表上的差距大多來自運氣。
實力推估的最大差距
2.9
pt/半莊。實際成績的差距為36.7
實際成績與實力推估每半莊,依運氣加分・扣分排序
運氣帶來的得分來自配牌・摸牌・裏寶牌,pt/半莊
以聯盟平均的運氣為0,將配牌、摸牌、裏寶牌的好壞換算成得分後相當於幾pt(計算方法 4(日文))。
實力推估每半莊得分,依推估由高到低,10半莊以上
| 選手 | 半莊 | 90%區間 | 實力推估 | 扣除運氣的推估 | 實際成績 | 實際成績 − 推估 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1鈴木優 | 27 | +1.7 | +1.0 | +16.2 | +14.5 | |
| 2勝又健志 | 29 | +1.6 | +1.8 | +13.9 | +12.3 | |
| 3瑞原明奈 | 21 | +1.5 | +1.4 | +18.0 | +16.5 | |
| 4仲林圭 | 26 | +1.1 | +0.7 | +10.3 | +9.2 | |
| 5伊達朱里紗 | 20 | +0.9 | +0.5 | +10.8 | +9.9 | |
| 6鈴木たろう | 24 | +0.9 | +1.2 | +8.8 | +7.9 | |
| 7岡田紗佳 | 27 | +0.8 | +2.4 | +7.9 | +7.0 | |
| 8園田賢 | 26 | +0.8 | +0.9 | +7.9 | +7.1 | |
| 9渋川難波 | 23 | +0.6 | +1.5 | +6.4 | +5.8 | |
| 10松本吉弘 | 32 | +0.4 | +1.1 | +3.1 | +2.7 | |
| 11堀慎吾 | 28 | +0.4 | +1.2 | +3.3 | +2.9 | |
| 12渡辺太 | 26 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +1.4 | +1.2 | |
| 13多井隆晴 | 22 | +0.1 | -0.1 | +1.4 | +1.3 | |
| 14猿川真寿 | 29 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +1.0 | +0.9 | |
| 15佐々木寿人 | 25 | +0.1 | -0.3 | +0.7 | +0.6 | |
| 以下低於聯盟平均 | ||||||
| 16瀬戸熊直樹 | 24 | 0.0 | +0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | |
| 17魚谷侑未 | 26 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.5 | |
| 18二階堂瑠美 | 19 | -0.1 | -0.5 | -1.0 | -0.9 | |
| 19菅原千瑛 | 23 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -2.1 | -1.9 | |
| 20高宮まり | 25 | -0.3 | +0.1 | -2.6 | -2.3 | |
| 21日向藍子 | 21 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -3.3 | -3.0 | |
| 22萩原聖人 | 25 | -0.3 | +0.6 | -3.4 | -3.0 | |
| 23白鳥翔 | 21 | -0.3 | -0.6 | -4.0 | -3.6 | |
| 24鈴木大介 | 30 | -0.4 | -1.6 | -3.2 | -2.9 | |
| 25浅見真紀 | 20 | -0.4 | +0.3 | -5.4 | -4.9 | |
| 26滝沢和典 | 26 | -0.5 | -0.9 | -4.6 | -4.1 | |
| 27二階堂亜樹 | 23 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -5.4 | -4.9 | |
| 28茅森早香 | 24 | -0.7 | -1.6 | -6.9 | -6.2 | |
| 29本田朋広 | 25 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -7.3 | -6.6 | |
| 30小林剛 | 22 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -8.9 | -8.1 | |
| 31内川幸太郎 | 18 | -0.8 | -1.6 | -11.4 | -10.5 | |
| 32醍醐大 | 25 | -0.9 | -1.4 | -8.6 | -7.7 | |
| 33黒沢咲 | 22 | -0.9 | -1.1 | -9.8 | -8.9 | |
| 34東城りお | 21 | -0.9 | -1.5 | -11.0 | -10.1 | |
| 35中田花奈 | 14 | -1.1 | -1.4 | -18.7 | -17.6 | |
| 36松ヶ瀬隆弥 | 25 | -1.1 | -1.6 | -11.1 | -10.0 | |
色帶是實力推估的90%區間,圓點是推估值,直線是聯盟平均(0)。實力推估是比賽數越少、就越往聯盟平均拉近估算的值。「扣除運氣的推估」則是再從得分中扣除配牌、摸牌、裏寶牌的運氣後估算的值(計算方法(日文))。「實際成績 − 推估」的長條,表示實際成績高於推估的部分(藍)與低於推估的部分(紅)。
運氣與聯盟平均的差。越藍運氣越好,越紅運氣越差
| 選手 | 運氣帶來的得分(/半莊) | 配牌好壞(向聽數) | 配牌的寶牌・赤寶牌 | 摸牌好壞 | 裏寶牌運 | 一發率 | 不易被追立(/先制立直) | 莊家被重自摸率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鈴木優 | +9.4 | -0.03 | -0.05 | -0.2% | -0.12 | -11.9% | -3.0% | 8.8% |
| 鈴木大介 | +7.1 | +0.08 | +0.04 | -0.3% | +0.17 | +1.3% | +6.0% | 12.2% |
| 伊達朱里紗 | +5.9 | +0.07 | -0.01 | -0.9% | +0.23 | -7.7% | -6.1% | 8.8% |
| 茅森早香 | +5.8 | +0.05 | -0.09 | -0.4% | +0.14 | -4.0% | -4.5% | 15.3% |
| 瑞原明奈 | +5.5 | +0.01 | -0.03 | -0.1% | -0.16 | +8.4% | +7.3% | 6.5% |
| 仲林圭 | +4.9 | +0.12 | +0.03 | -0.7% | +0.06 | -3.1% | -5.0% | 11.0% |
| 内川幸太郎 | +4.5 | -0.07 | -0.01 | +1.1% | +0.03 | +5.3% | -7.3% | 18.0% |
| 二階堂瑠美 | +3.3 | -0.02 | +0.08 | +0.4% | +0.09 | -1.6% | +9.2% | 11.1% |
| 佐々木寿人 | +3.1 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +1.0% | +0.02 | +3.5% | -4.0% | 10.3% |
| 勝又健志 | +2.2 | -0.00 | -0.02 | +0.3% | -0.13 | +2.8% | +3.5% | 10.0% |
| 滝沢和典 | +2.1 | -0.01 | +0.02 | +0.4% | +0.14 | -1.3% | -6.0% | 8.6% |
| 醍醐大 | +2.1 | +0.02 | -0.03 | -0.1% | +0.23 | +2.8% | -11.1% | 9.5% |
| 多井隆晴 | +1.9 | +0.07 | +0.04 | +0.0% | -0.03 | -0.4% | -8.0% | 10.8% |
| 東城りお | +1.9 | +0.06 | -0.06 | -0.7% | -0.12 | -6.0% | +2.2% | 9.5% |
| 園田賢 | +1.6 | +0.03 | +0.03 | -1.3% | +0.17 | -5.1% | +8.9% | 10.8% |
| 白鳥翔 | +1.4 | +0.04 | +0.04 | -0.5% | -0.15 | -4.4% | -1.8% | 11.7% |
| 松ヶ瀬隆弥 | +1.1 | +0.06 | -0.10 | +0.4% | +0.07 | +10.6% | -6.8% | 9.7% |
| 菅原千瑛 | -0.2 | +0.07 | -0.06 | +0.6% | +0.06 | +0.3% | -4.7% | 17.2% |
| 鈴木たろう | -0.3 | +0.05 | -0.04 | +0.2% | +0.11 | +6.1% | -6.6% | 10.5% |
| 黒沢咲 | -0.5 | -0.00 | +0.04 | -0.0% | -0.04 | +8.8% | -8.8% | 15.7% |
| 瀬戸熊直樹 | -0.5 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.4% | -0.01 | +2.5% | +6.9% | 16.3% |
| 魚谷侑未 | -0.8 | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.6% | -0.08 | -16.4% | -0.7% | 13.6% |
| 小林剛 | -0.8 | +0.05 | +0.05 | -0.3% | -0.07 | +0.3% | -7.1% | 10.4% |
| 中田花奈 | -0.9 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.7% | -0.20 | -1.0% | +11.5% | 17.6% |
| 二階堂亜樹 | -1.0 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.0% | +0.03 | -2.6% | -5.0% | 9.0% |
| 日向藍子 | -2.4 | +0.02 | +0.00 | -0.2% | -0.08 | +6.1% | -5.5% | 10.1% |
| 高宮まり | -3.4 | -0.06 | +0.01 | -0.1% | -0.12 | +2.8% | +3.4% | 13.1% |
| 松本吉弘 | -3.5 | -0.04 | +0.01 | -1.3% | -0.11 | +1.5% | +3.5% | 10.6% |
| 猿川真寿 | -3.8 | +0.03 | -0.03 | -1.4% | +0.14 | -5.5% | +7.5% | 15.8% |
| 渡辺太 | -3.9 | +0.02 | -0.07 | -0.2% | +0.02 | +1.7% | +4.0% | 12.9% |
| 本田朋広 | -4.0 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.2% | -0.03 | -2.6% | -2.3% | 12.2% |
| 堀慎吾 | -5.1 | -0.06 | -0.07 | +0.5% | +0.12 | +0.3% | +8.2% | 8.1% |
| 渋川難波 | -5.9 | +0.00 | +0.07 | -1.2% | -0.08 | +7.5% | +4.4% | 12.2% |
| 萩原聖人 | -7.6 | +0.03 | -0.03 | -0.8% | +0.03 | -12.1% | -8.6% | 11.2% |
| 浅見真紀 | -8.1 | +0.08 | +0.01 | -0.7% | -0.22 | -9.0% | -0.9% | 13.3% |
| 岡田紗佳 | -9.0 | -0.00 | -0.05 | -1.8% | -0.09 | -7.7% | +1.3% | 12.2% |
顏色深淺以各欄中最大的差距為基準。運氣帶來的得分,是將右側各項目換算成得分後的合計。
2023-24決定各場比賽的一局 得分與順位等官方成績請見M League 官方網站。