Regular Season · 29 players · 180 games
2019-20 season
Actual results per game were as much as 31pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 1.9pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck.
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 10+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Uotani Yuumi | 27 | +1.0 | +1.8 | +16.7 | +15.7 | |
| 2Murakami Jun | 27 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +13.6 | +12.7 | |
| 3Kondo Seiichi | 22 | +0.8 | +1.3 | +15.1 | +14.3 | |
| 4Shiratori Sho | 24 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +12.1 | +11.4 | |
| 5Sawazaki Makoto | 41 | +0.6 | +0.3 | +6.2 | +5.6 | |
| 6Ooi Takaharu | 27 | +0.5 | 0.0 | +7.8 | +7.3 | |
| 7Kobayashi Go | 30 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +7.0 | +6.6 | |
| 8Kurosawa Saki | 28 | +0.3 | -0.3 | +5.4 | +5.0 | |
| 9Takamiya Mari | 21 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +4.7 | +4.5 | |
| 10Maehara Yudai | 20 | +0.2 | -0.2 | +4.0 | +3.8 | |
| 11Sasaki Hisato | 29 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +2.8 | +2.6 | |
| 12Setokuma Naoki | 33 | 0.0 | -0.4 | +0.6 | +0.6 | |
| 13Hinata Aiko | 16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +1.2 | +1.1 | |
| 14Katsumata Kenji | 35 | 0.0 | +0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 15Uchikawa Kotaro | 30 | -0.1 | +0.1 | -1.1 | -1.0 | |
| 16Fujisaki Satoshi | 20 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -3.3 | -3.1 | |
| 17Mizuhara Akina | 16 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -6.4 | -6.1 | |
| 18Suzuki Taro | 26 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -4.8 | -4.5 | |
| 19Wakutsu Akira | 15 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -8.7 | -8.4 | |
| 20Asakura Koshin | 28 | -0.3 | +0.1 | -5.1 | -4.8 | |
| 21Maruyama Kanako | 10 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -14.0 | -13.6 | |
| 22Okada Sayaka | 19 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -8.0 | -7.7 | |
| 23Kayamori Sayaka | 26 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -6.1 | -5.7 | |
| 24Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 16 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -10.5 | -10.1 | |
| 25Takizawa Kazunori | 35 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -5.4 | -5.0 | |
| 26Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 23 | -0.6 | -0.9 | -10.7 | -10.1 | |
| 27Hagiwara Masato | 29 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -8.7 | -8.1 | |
| 28Nikaido Aki | 20 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -14.3 | -13.7 | |
| 29Sonoda Ken | 27 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -14.0 | -13.1 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Not being chased (/first riichi) | Painful dealer tsumo rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shiratori Sho | +9.8 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.2% | +0.24 | +7.5% | +7.4% | 6.1% |
| Kurosawa Saki | +9.3 | -0.06 | -0.06 | +0.9% | +0.05 | +3.9% | +12.1% | 12.2% |
| Ooi Takaharu | +8.2 | -0.09 | +0.05 | +0.8% | +0.05 | +3.1% | -1.8% | 11.5% |
| Maehara Yudai | +7.5 | -0.02 | +0.01 | +0.1% | +0.13 | +0.3% | -7.3% | 10.7% |
| Takamiya Mari | +6.4 | -0.02 | +0.06 | +0.2% | -0.08 | +3.5% | +8.4% | 8.2% |
| Setokuma Naoki | +4.2 | +0.04 | -0.00 | -0.1% | +0.02 | +0.6% | +4.8% | 14.8% |
| Sawazaki Makoto | +3.3 | -0.09 | +0.00 | +0.3% | +0.10 | +4.6% | -1.7% | 8.8% |
| Fujisaki Satoshi | +2.0 | -0.07 | +0.06 | +0.3% | +0.10 | +6.3% | +3.9% | 14.8% |
| Murakami Jun | +2.0 | -0.07 | +0.03 | +0.2% | +0.14 | +1.9% | -1.0% | 7.5% |
| Hinata Aiko | +1.7 | +0.01 | -0.04 | +0.5% | -0.07 | -1.6% | +4.8% | 13.3% |
| Matsumoto Yoshihiro | +1.4 | -0.04 | -0.06 | -0.3% | +0.17 | +0.9% | -1.1% | 15.5% |
| Hagiwara Masato | +0.6 | +0.04 | -0.01 | +0.5% | +0.06 | -4.4% | -0.4% | 14.9% |
| Mizuhara Akina | +0.5 | -0.02 | +0.08 | +0.2% | +0.17 | -19.7% | -13.2% | 5.7% |
| Takizawa Kazunori | -0.5 | -0.06 | -0.00 | +0.3% | +0.11 | +6.3% | -0.1% | 14.2% |
| Sasaki Hisato | -1.0 | +0.02 | -0.01 | +0.1% | +0.07 | +0.3% | +5.3% | 8.0% |
| Suzuki Taro | -1.7 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.4% | +0.03 | +20.3% | +11.4% | 17.6% |
| Okada Sayaka | -2.4 | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.4% | -0.12 | -0.4% | -2.0% | 8.3% |
| Uchikawa Kotaro | -2.6 | -0.06 | +0.06 | -0.2% | +0.03 | -7.2% | -0.1% | 12.7% |
| Wakutsu Akira | -3.5 | +0.09 | +0.04 | +0.4% | -0.13 | +0.3% | -3.7% | 14.0% |
| Kobayashi Go | -3.7 | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.2% | +0.25 | -6.4% | +4.0% | 15.7% |
| Kondo Seiichi | -4.3 | -0.01 | -0.02 | +0.4% | -0.10 | +13.6% | +3.4% | 8.2% |
| Katsumata Kenji | -4.6 | +0.02 | -0.03 | +0.3% | -0.06 | -0.2% | -11.8% | 10.8% |
| Ishibashi Nobuhiro | -4.7 | -0.12 | +0.06 | +0.3% | +0.14 | -12.6% | +1.1% | 17.1% |
| Kayamori Sayaka | -4.7 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.7% | +0.03 | +14.9% | -2.3% | 7.7% |
| Sonoda Ken | -4.9 | -0.11 | -0.02 | -0.1% | -0.23 | +2.8% | +5.7% | 17.6% |
| Uotani Yuumi | -5.1 | -0.02 | -0.00 | -0.0% | +0.13 | -4.9% | +1.7% | 2.5% |
| Nikaido Aki | -5.5 | +0.01 | +0.05 | -1.6% | -0.03 | -2.1% | -2.3% | 12.1% |
| Asakura Koshin | -5.8 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.1% | -0.19 | -16.9% | -1.6% | 17.6% |
| Maruyama Kanako | -7.8 | +0.03 | -0.06 | +0.0% | +0.30 | +5.3% | -8.0% | 20.5% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2019-20 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.