Regular Season · 29 players · 180 games
2019-20 season
Actual results per game were as much as 31pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 5.1pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck.
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 10+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Yuumi Uotani | 27 | +2.8 | +4.7 | +16.7 | +13.9 | |
| 2Jun Murakami | 27 | +2.3 | +2.5 | +13.6 | +11.3 | |
| 3Seiichi Kondo | 22 | +2.1 | +3.5 | +15.1 | +13.0 | |
| 4Sho Shiratori | 24 | +1.8 | +0.4 | +12.1 | +10.3 | |
| 5Makoto Sawazaki | 41 | +1.4 | +0.8 | +6.2 | +4.8 | |
| 6Takaharu Ooi | 27 | +1.3 | -0.1 | +7.8 | +6.5 | |
| 7Go Kobayashi | 30 | +1.3 | +2.5 | +7.0 | +5.8 | |
| 8Saki Kurosawa | 28 | +0.9 | -0.9 | +5.4 | +4.5 | |
| 9Mari Takamiya | 21 | +0.6 | -0.3 | +4.7 | +4.1 | |
| 10Yudai Maehara | 20 | +0.5 | -0.6 | +4.0 | +3.5 | |
| 11Hisato Sasaki | 29 | +0.5 | +0.9 | +2.8 | +2.3 | |
| 12Naoki Setokuma | 33 | +0.1 | -0.9 | +0.6 | +0.5 | |
| 13Aiko Hinata | 16 | +0.1 | -0.1 | +1.2 | +1.0 | |
| 14Kenji Katsumata | 35 | 0.0 | +1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 15Kotaro Uchikawa | 30 | -0.2 | +0.4 | -1.1 | -0.9 | |
| 16Satoshi Fujisaki | 20 | -0.4 | -0.9 | -3.3 | -2.9 | |
| 17Akina Mizuhara | 16 | -0.7 | -1.0 | -6.4 | -5.7 | |
| 18Taro Suzuki | 26 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -4.8 | -4.1 | |
| 19Akira Wakutsu | 15 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -8.7 | -7.8 | |
| 20Koshin Asakura | 28 | -0.9 | +0.2 | -5.1 | -4.2 | |
| 21Kanako Maruyama | 10 | -1.0 | -0.6 | -14.0 | -13.0 | |
| 22Sayaka Kayamori | 26 | -1.0 | -0.3 | -6.1 | -5.1 | |
| 23Sayaka Okada | 19 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -8.0 | -7.1 | |
| 24Kazunori Takizawa | 35 | -1.1 | -1.3 | -5.4 | -4.3 | |
| 25Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 16 | -1.1 | -0.8 | -10.5 | -9.4 | |
| 26Masato Hagiwara | 29 | -1.5 | -2.1 | -8.7 | -7.1 | |
| 27Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 23 | -1.6 | -2.3 | -10.7 | -9.2 | |
| 28Aki Nikaido | 20 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -14.3 | -12.5 | |
| 29Ken Sonoda | 27 | -2.3 | -1.9 | -14.0 | -11.7 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sho Shiratori | +9.8 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.2% | +0.24 | +7.5% | +7.4% | 6.1% |
| Saki Kurosawa | +9.3 | -0.06 | -0.06 | +0.9% | +0.05 | +3.9% | +12.1% | 12.2% |
| Takaharu Ooi | +8.2 | -0.09 | +0.05 | +0.8% | +0.05 | +3.1% | -1.8% | 11.5% |
| Yudai Maehara | +7.4 | -0.02 | +0.02 | +0.1% | +0.13 | +0.3% | -7.3% | 10.7% |
| Mari Takamiya | +6.4 | -0.02 | +0.06 | +0.2% | -0.08 | +3.5% | +8.4% | 8.2% |
| Naoki Setokuma | +4.2 | +0.04 | -0.00 | -0.1% | +0.02 | +0.6% | +4.9% | 14.8% |
| Makoto Sawazaki | +3.3 | -0.09 | +0.00 | +0.3% | +0.10 | +4.6% | -1.7% | 8.8% |
| Satoshi Fujisaki | +2.0 | -0.07 | +0.06 | +0.3% | +0.10 | +6.3% | +3.9% | 14.8% |
| Jun Murakami | +2.0 | -0.07 | +0.03 | +0.2% | +0.14 | +1.9% | -1.0% | 7.5% |
| Aiko Hinata | +1.7 | +0.01 | -0.04 | +0.5% | -0.07 | -1.6% | +4.8% | 13.3% |
| Yoshihiro Matsumoto | +1.4 | -0.04 | -0.06 | -0.3% | +0.17 | +0.9% | -1.1% | 15.5% |
| Akina Mizuhara | +0.5 | -0.02 | +0.08 | +0.2% | +0.17 | -19.7% | -13.1% | 5.7% |
| Masato Hagiwara | +0.5 | +0.03 | -0.01 | +0.5% | +0.06 | -4.4% | -0.4% | 14.9% |
| Kazunori Takizawa | -0.5 | -0.06 | -0.00 | +0.3% | +0.11 | +6.3% | -0.0% | 14.2% |
| Hisato Sasaki | -1.0 | +0.02 | -0.01 | +0.1% | +0.07 | +0.3% | +5.3% | 8.0% |
| Taro Suzuki | -1.9 | -0.09 | -0.08 | -0.4% | +0.03 | +20.3% | +11.4% | 17.4% |
| Sayaka Okada | -2.2 | -0.02 | -0.03 | +0.4% | -0.12 | -0.4% | -1.9% | 8.3% |
| Kotaro Uchikawa | -2.7 | -0.06 | +0.06 | -0.2% | +0.03 | -7.2% | -0.1% | 12.6% |
| Akira Wakutsu | -3.5 | +0.09 | +0.04 | +0.4% | -0.13 | +0.3% | -3.7% | 14.0% |
| Go Kobayashi | -3.6 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.2% | +0.25 | -6.4% | +4.1% | 15.7% |
| Seiichi Kondo | -3.8 | -0.00 | -0.02 | +0.3% | -0.10 | +12.5% | +3.9% | 8.2% |
| Kenji Katsumata | -4.6 | +0.02 | -0.03 | +0.3% | -0.06 | -0.2% | -11.8% | 10.8% |
| Nobuhiro Ishibashi | -4.6 | -0.12 | +0.05 | +0.3% | +0.14 | -12.6% | +1.1% | 17.1% |
| Sayaka Kayamori | -4.7 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.7% | +0.03 | +14.9% | -2.2% | 7.7% |
| Ken Sonoda | -4.9 | -0.11 | -0.02 | -0.2% | -0.23 | +2.8% | +5.7% | 17.6% |
| Yuumi Uotani | -5.1 | -0.02 | -0.00 | -0.0% | +0.13 | -4.9% | +1.7% | 2.5% |
| Aki Nikaido | -5.7 | +0.01 | +0.05 | -1.6% | -0.03 | -2.1% | -2.2% | 13.4% |
| Koshin Asakura | -5.8 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.1% | -0.19 | -16.9% | -1.5% | 17.6% |
| Kanako Maruyama | -7.8 | +0.03 | -0.06 | +0.0% | +0.30 | +5.3% | -8.0% | 20.5% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2019-20 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.