Regular Season · 36 players · 216 games
2024-25 season
Actual results per game were as much as 47pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 2.4pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck.
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 10+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Daigo Hiroshi | 26 | +1.0 | +1.0 | +16.9 | +15.9 | |
| 2Sonoda Ken | 27 | +0.9 | +0.8 | +14.8 | +13.8 | |
| 3Shiratori Sho | 35 | +0.9 | +0.6 | +11.5 | +10.6 | |
| 4Sasaki Hisato | 30 | +0.9 | +1.7 | +12.9 | +12.0 | |
| 5Takeuchi Genta | 26 | +0.8 | +1.1 | +13.1 | +12.3 | |
| 6Suzuki Taro | 25 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +10.5 | +9.9 | |
| 7Asami Maki | 18 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +14.2 | +13.6 | |
| 8Nakabayashi Kei | 27 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +9.5 | +8.9 | |
| 9Watanabe Futoshi | 26 | +0.5 | +0.6 | +7.7 | +7.2 | |
| 10Suzuki Yu | 23 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +7.9 | +7.4 | |
| 11Setokuma Naoki | 21 | +0.4 | +0.7 | +8.1 | +7.7 | |
| 12Honda Tomohiro | 31 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +5.0 | +4.7 | |
| 13Mizuhara Akina | 25 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +4.8 | +4.6 | |
| 14Kurosawa Saki | 20 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +5.0 | +4.7 | |
| 15Date Arisa | 23 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +4.3 | +4.1 | |
| 16Hinata Aiko | 20 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +4.0 | +3.8 | |
| 17Shibukawa Namba | 27 | +0.2 | -0.2 | +2.8 | +2.7 | |
| 18Hori Shingo | 33 | +0.2 | 0.0 | +2.2 | +2.0 | |
| 19Suzuki Daisuke | 29 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +1.7 | +1.6 | |
| 20Nikaido Aki | 28 | +0.1 | -0.3 | +1.4 | +1.3 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 21Takizawa Kazunori | 24 | -0.1 | +0.2 | -1.5 | -1.4 | |
| 22Uchikawa Kotaro | 19 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -3.0 | -2.8 | |
| 23Kobayashi Go | 21 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -3.7 | -3.5 | |
| 24Hagiwara Masato | 24 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -4.0 | -3.8 | |
| 25Sugawara Hiroe | 23 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -8.5 | -8.1 | |
| 26Asai Takaki | 23 | -0.5 | -0.7 | -9.4 | -8.9 | |
| 27Kayamori Sayaka | 21 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -10.6 | -10.1 | |
| 28Nikaido Rumi | 16 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -13.8 | -13.3 | |
| 29Katsumata Kenji | 27 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -9.0 | -8.4 | |
| 30Ooi Takaharu | 19 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -12.8 | -12.2 | |
| 31Takamiya Mari | 19 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -12.8 | -12.2 | |
| 32Matsugase Takaya | 25 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -13.0 | -12.3 | |
| 33Sarukawa Masatoshi | 24 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -16.8 | -15.8 | |
| 34Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 22 | -1.0 | -1.2 | -19.4 | -18.4 | |
| 35Okada Sayaka | 17 | -1.2 | -1.6 | -29.8 | -28.6 | |
| 36Nakada Kana | 20 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -28.8 | -27.4 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Not being chased (/first riichi) | Painful dealer tsumo rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurosawa Saki | +6.1 | +0.02 | -0.09 | +0.4% | -0.04 | -16.0% | +4.7% | 10.1% |
| Hinata Aiko | +5.9 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +1.1% | +0.01 | -1.2% | -9.0% | 10.8% |
| Shibukawa Namba | +5.8 | -0.14 | -0.00 | +1.1% | +0.07 | -0.3% | -2.1% | 15.5% |
| Date Arisa | +5.7 | -0.04 | -0.07 | +1.1% | -0.10 | -0.2% | +6.3% | 13.3% |
| Shiratori Sho | +5.5 | +0.00 | -0.02 | -0.1% | +0.11 | +3.2% | -9.4% | 10.7% |
| Sonoda Ken | +4.8 | -0.02 | -0.00 | +0.5% | -0.09 | -6.2% | -2.2% | 11.1% |
| Nikaido Aki | +4.4 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.4% | +0.04 | -1.6% | -4.3% | 10.3% |
| Daigo Hiroshi | +4.0 | -0.07 | +0.01 | +0.6% | -0.04 | +6.4% | +12.4% | 10.1% |
| Katsumata Kenji | +2.5 | -0.05 | +0.00 | +0.5% | -0.02 | -4.4% | +2.7% | 6.7% |
| Mizuhara Akina | +2.3 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.9% | -0.13 | -10.1% | +0.8% | 10.5% |
| Hori Shingo | +2.2 | +0.06 | -0.01 | +0.3% | -0.08 | +3.9% | +3.6% | 6.6% |
| Uchikawa Kotaro | +2.1 | +0.08 | -0.01 | -0.1% | +0.08 | -1.2% | -1.8% | 10.0% |
| Kayamori Sayaka | +0.8 | -0.10 | -0.05 | +0.2% | -0.11 | +4.4% | -4.5% | 17.9% |
| Watanabe Futoshi | +0.6 | +0.02 | -0.03 | +0.3% | +0.06 | -11.2% | -2.6% | 9.6% |
| Honda Tomohiro | +0.4 | +0.04 | -0.02 | -0.3% | +0.14 | +0.8% | -2.6% | 7.3% |
| Asai Takaki | +0.1 | +0.01 | -0.01 | +0.2% | -0.03 | +1.3% | -4.9% | 13.2% |
| Suzuki Taro | +0.1 | +0.00 | -0.09 | +0.1% | -0.03 | +13.6% | +3.3% | 10.5% |
| Kobayashi Go | -0.0 | -0.02 | -0.00 | -0.2% | -0.03 | -0.7% | -6.8% | 19.0% |
| Nakabayashi Kei | -0.3 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.9% | +0.10 | -6.6% | +2.2% | 20.3% |
| Takeuchi Genta | -0.9 | -0.02 | -0.06 | +0.6% | +0.10 | -1.0% | -13.5% | 16.0% |
| Sugawara Hiroe | -1.0 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.6% | -0.09 | -3.7% | +0.3% | 11.8% |
| Okada Sayaka | -1.2 | +0.02 | -0.02 | -1.5% | +0.01 | -3.1% | -3.9% | 12.5% |
| Matsumoto Yoshihiro | -1.9 | +0.04 | +0.02 | -0.5% | +0.19 | -5.5% | -4.5% | 10.5% |
| Hagiwara Masato | -2.2 | -0.04 | +0.01 | +0.5% | -0.03 | +9.3% | -8.8% | 8.7% |
| Asami Maki | -2.4 | -0.05 | -0.06 | -0.7% | +0.19 | +0.3% | +2.0% | 11.9% |
| Sarukawa Masatoshi | -2.9 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.5% | -0.08 | -7.7% | +3.7% | 12.3% |
| Setokuma Naoki | -3.0 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.9% | -0.18 | +5.3% | +4.9% | 10.7% |
| Takamiya Mari | -3.6 | -0.05 | +0.07 | -0.7% | -0.19 | -1.0% | +3.1% | 10.9% |
| Ooi Takaharu | -3.7 | +0.04 | +0.02 | -1.2% | -0.07 | -5.5% | -14.7% | 13.2% |
| Takizawa Kazunori | -4.3 | +0.01 | +0.06 | +0.0% | -0.01 | -2.1% | -7.4% | 19.4% |
| Suzuki Daisuke | -4.6 | -0.07 | +0.02 | -0.9% | -0.10 | +0.3% | -5.9% | 13.8% |
| Sasaki Hisato | -5.1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | -1.4% | -0.02 | +7.3% | -1.4% | 13.7% |
| Nikaido Rumi | -5.2 | -0.10 | +0.01 | -0.2% | +0.05 | +0.3% | -5.9% | 12.2% |
| Matsugase Takaya | -5.2 | -0.04 | +0.04 | -0.7% | -0.10 | -5.9% | +3.5% | 10.5% |
| Suzuki Yu | -6.0 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.5% | +0.06 | -1.3% | +5.3% | 17.8% |
| Nakada Kana | -6.9 | +0.04 | -0.05 | -0.3% | -0.02 | -3.7% | +3.4% | 14.1% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2024-25 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.