Regular Season · 36 players · 216 games
2024-25 season
Actual results per game were as much as 47pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 6.4pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck.
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 10+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hiroshi Daigo | 26 | +2.7 | +2.7 | +16.9 | +14.2 | |
| 2Ken Sonoda | 27 | +2.5 | +2.1 | +14.8 | +12.3 | |
| 3Sho Shiratori | 35 | +2.4 | +1.6 | +11.5 | +9.2 | |
| 4Hisato Sasaki | 30 | +2.3 | +4.2 | +12.9 | +10.6 | |
| 5Genta Takeuchi | 26 | +2.1 | +2.9 | +13.1 | +11.0 | |
| 6Maki Asami | 18 | +1.7 | +2.6 | +14.2 | +12.5 | |
| 7Taro Suzuki | 25 | +1.6 | +2.1 | +10.5 | +8.9 | |
| 8Kei Nakabayashi | 27 | +1.6 | +2.1 | +9.5 | +7.9 | |
| 9Futoshi Watanabe | 26 | +1.2 | +1.5 | +7.7 | +6.4 | |
| 10Yu Suzuki | 23 | +1.1 | +2.6 | +7.9 | +6.7 | |
| 11Naoki Setokuma | 21 | +1.1 | +1.9 | +8.1 | +7.0 | |
| 12Tomohiro Honda | 31 | +0.9 | +1.1 | +5.0 | +4.1 | |
| 13Akina Mizuhara | 25 | +0.8 | +0.5 | +4.8 | +4.1 | |
| 14Saki Kurosawa | 20 | +0.6 | -0.2 | +5.0 | +4.3 | |
| 15Arisa Date | 23 | +0.6 | -0.2 | +4.3 | +3.7 | |
| 16Aiko Hinata | 20 | +0.5 | -0.3 | +4.0 | +3.5 | |
| 17Namba Shibukawa | 27 | +0.5 | -0.6 | +2.8 | +2.4 | |
| 18Shingo Hori | 33 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +2.2 | +1.8 | |
| 19Daisuke Suzuki | 29 | +0.3 | +1.4 | +1.7 | +1.4 | |
| 20Aki Nikaido | 28 | +0.2 | -0.7 | +1.4 | +1.1 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 21Kazunori Takizawa | 24 | -0.2 | +0.5 | -1.5 | -1.3 | |
| 22Kotaro Uchikawa | 19 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -3.0 | -2.6 | |
| 23Go Kobayashi | 21 | -0.5 | -0.7 | -3.7 | -3.2 | |
| 24Masato Hagiwara | 24 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -4.0 | -3.4 | |
| 25Hiroe Sugawara | 23 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -8.5 | -7.3 | |
| 26Takaki Asai | 23 | -1.4 | -1.8 | -9.4 | -8.0 | |
| 27Sayaka Kayamori | 21 | -1.4 | -2.0 | -10.6 | -9.2 | |
| 28Rumi Nikaido | 16 | -1.5 | -1.2 | -13.8 | -12.4 | |
| 29Kenji Katsumata | 27 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -9.0 | -7.5 | |
| 30Takaharu Ooi | 19 | -1.6 | -1.5 | -12.8 | -11.2 | |
| 31Mari Takamiya | 19 | -1.6 | -1.5 | -12.8 | -11.2 | |
| 32Takaya Matsugase | 25 | -2.0 | -1.6 | -13.0 | -11.0 | |
| 33Masatoshi Sarukawa | 24 | -2.5 | -2.7 | -16.8 | -14.2 | |
| 34Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 22 | -2.7 | -3.2 | -19.4 | -16.7 | |
| 35Sayaka Okada | 17 | -3.3 | -4.3 | -29.8 | -26.5 | |
| 36Kana Nakada | 20 | -3.7 | -3.7 | -28.8 | -25.1 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saki Kurosawa | +6.1 | +0.02 | -0.09 | +0.4% | -0.04 | -16.0% | +4.8% | 10.1% |
| Aiko Hinata | +5.8 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +1.1% | +0.01 | -1.2% | -8.9% | 10.8% |
| Namba Shibukawa | +5.8 | -0.14 | -0.00 | +1.1% | +0.07 | -0.3% | -2.1% | 15.5% |
| Sho Shiratori | +5.6 | +0.01 | -0.02 | -0.1% | +0.11 | +3.2% | -9.3% | 10.6% |
| Arisa Date | +5.5 | -0.04 | -0.07 | +1.1% | -0.10 | -0.2% | +6.4% | 13.3% |
| Ken Sonoda | +4.8 | -0.02 | -0.00 | +0.5% | -0.09 | -6.2% | -2.2% | 11.1% |
| Aki Nikaido | +4.4 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.4% | +0.04 | -1.6% | -4.3% | 10.3% |
| Hiroshi Daigo | +3.8 | -0.08 | +0.02 | +0.6% | -0.04 | +6.4% | +12.4% | 10.1% |
| Kenji Katsumata | +2.5 | -0.05 | +0.00 | +0.5% | -0.02 | -4.4% | +2.7% | 6.7% |
| Akina Mizuhara | +2.3 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.9% | -0.13 | -10.1% | +0.9% | 10.5% |
| Kotaro Uchikawa | +2.1 | +0.08 | -0.01 | -0.1% | +0.08 | -1.2% | -1.7% | 10.0% |
| Shingo Hori | +2.0 | +0.05 | -0.01 | +0.3% | -0.08 | +3.9% | +3.6% | 6.5% |
| Sayaka Kayamori | +0.8 | -0.10 | -0.05 | +0.2% | -0.11 | +4.4% | -4.4% | 17.9% |
| Futoshi Watanabe | +0.6 | +0.02 | -0.03 | +0.3% | +0.06 | -11.2% | -2.5% | 9.6% |
| Tomohiro Honda | +0.4 | +0.04 | -0.02 | -0.3% | +0.14 | +0.8% | -2.6% | 7.3% |
| Go Kobayashi | +0.2 | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.1% | -0.03 | -0.7% | -5.7% | 18.8% |
| Taro Suzuki | +0.1 | +0.00 | -0.09 | +0.1% | -0.03 | +13.6% | +3.3% | 10.5% |
| Takaki Asai | +0.1 | +0.01 | -0.01 | +0.2% | -0.03 | +1.3% | -4.8% | 13.2% |
| Kei Nakabayashi | -0.3 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.9% | +0.10 | -6.6% | +2.3% | 20.3% |
| Genta Takeuchi | -0.9 | -0.02 | -0.06 | +0.6% | +0.10 | -1.0% | -13.4% | 16.0% |
| Sayaka Okada | -0.9 | +0.02 | -0.02 | -1.4% | +0.01 | -3.1% | -3.8% | 12.5% |
| Hiroe Sugawara | -1.0 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.6% | -0.09 | -3.7% | +0.4% | 11.8% |
| Yoshihiro Matsumoto | -1.8 | +0.03 | +0.02 | -0.5% | +0.19 | -5.5% | -4.5% | 10.5% |
| Masato Hagiwara | -2.3 | -0.04 | +0.01 | +0.5% | -0.03 | +9.3% | -8.7% | 8.7% |
| Maki Asami | -2.4 | -0.05 | -0.06 | -0.7% | +0.19 | +0.3% | +2.0% | 11.9% |
| Masatoshi Sarukawa | -2.8 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.4% | -0.08 | -7.7% | +3.8% | 12.3% |
| Naoki Setokuma | -2.9 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.9% | -0.18 | +5.3% | +5.0% | 10.7% |
| Mari Takamiya | -3.6 | -0.05 | +0.07 | -0.7% | -0.19 | -1.0% | +3.1% | 10.9% |
| Takaharu Ooi | -3.7 | +0.04 | +0.02 | -1.2% | -0.07 | -5.5% | -14.6% | 13.2% |
| Kazunori Takizawa | -4.3 | +0.01 | +0.06 | +0.0% | -0.01 | -2.1% | -7.4% | 19.4% |
| Daisuke Suzuki | -4.6 | -0.07 | +0.02 | -0.9% | -0.10 | +0.3% | -5.9% | 13.8% |
| Hisato Sasaki | -5.1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | -1.4% | -0.02 | +7.3% | -1.3% | 13.7% |
| Takaya Matsugase | -5.2 | -0.04 | +0.04 | -0.7% | -0.10 | -5.9% | +3.5% | 10.5% |
| Rumi Nikaido | -5.2 | -0.10 | +0.01 | -0.2% | +0.05 | +0.3% | -5.9% | 12.2% |
| Yu Suzuki | -6.0 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.5% | +0.06 | -1.3% | +5.3% | 17.8% |
| Kana Nakada | -6.9 | +0.04 | -0.05 | -0.3% | -0.02 | -3.7% | +3.4% | 14.1% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2024-25 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.