Regular Season · 36 players · 216 games
2023-24 season
Actual results per game were as much as 37pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 4.4pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck.
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 10+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Yu Suzuki | 27 | +2.7 | +1.5 | +16.2 | +13.5 | |
| 2Kenji Katsumata | 29 | +2.5 | +2.7 | +13.9 | +11.5 | |
| 3Akina Mizuhara | 21 | +2.4 | +2.2 | +18.0 | +15.6 | |
| 4Kei Nakabayashi | 26 | +1.6 | +1.1 | +10.3 | +8.6 | |
| 5Arisa Date | 20 | +1.4 | +0.8 | +10.8 | +9.4 | |
| 6Taro Suzuki | 24 | +1.3 | +1.8 | +8.8 | +7.5 | |
| 7Sayaka Okada | 27 | +1.3 | +3.6 | +7.9 | +6.5 | |
| 8Ken Sonoda | 26 | +1.3 | +1.3 | +7.9 | +6.6 | |
| 9Namba Shibukawa | 23 | +0.9 | +2.3 | +6.4 | +5.5 | |
| 10Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 32 | +0.6 | +1.6 | +3.1 | +2.5 | |
| 11Shingo Hori | 28 | +0.6 | +1.9 | +3.3 | +2.7 | |
| 12Futoshi Watanabe | 26 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +1.4 | +1.2 | |
| 13Takaharu Ooi | 22 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +1.4 | +1.2 | |
| 14Masatoshi Sarukawa | 29 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +1.0 | +0.8 | |
| 15Hisato Sasaki | 25 | +0.1 | -0.5 | +0.7 | +0.6 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 16Naoki Setokuma | 24 | 0.0 | +0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | |
| 17Yuumi Uotani | 26 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.4 | |
| 18Rumi Nikaido | 19 | -0.1 | -0.7 | -1.0 | -0.9 | |
| 19Hiroe Sugawara | 23 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -2.1 | -1.8 | |
| 20Mari Takamiya | 25 | -0.4 | +0.2 | -2.6 | -2.2 | |
| 21Aiko Hinata | 21 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -3.3 | -2.8 | |
| 22Masato Hagiwara | 25 | -0.5 | +0.9 | -3.4 | -2.8 | |
| 23Sho Shiratori | 21 | -0.5 | -1.0 | -4.0 | -3.4 | |
| 24Daisuke Suzuki | 30 | -0.6 | -2.4 | -3.2 | -2.7 | |
| 25Maki Asami | 20 | -0.7 | +0.5 | -5.4 | -4.7 | |
| 26Kazunori Takizawa | 26 | -0.7 | -1.4 | -4.6 | -3.9 | |
| 27Aki Nikaido | 23 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -5.4 | -4.6 | |
| 28Sayaka Kayamori | 24 | -1.0 | -2.5 | -6.9 | -5.9 | |
| 29Tomohiro Honda | 25 | -1.1 | -0.7 | -7.3 | -6.2 | |
| 30Go Kobayashi | 22 | -1.2 | -1.5 | -8.9 | -7.6 | |
| 31Kotaro Uchikawa | 18 | -1.3 | -2.5 | -11.4 | -10.0 | |
| 32Hiroshi Daigo | 25 | -1.3 | -2.2 | -8.6 | -7.2 | |
| 33Saki Kurosawa | 22 | -1.4 | -1.7 | -9.8 | -8.4 | |
| 34Rio Tojyo | 21 | -1.5 | -2.3 | -11.0 | -9.5 | |
| 35Takaya Matsugase | 25 | -1.7 | -2.5 | -11.1 | -9.4 | |
| 36Kana Nakada | 14 | -1.7 | -2.2 | -18.7 | -16.9 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yu Suzuki | +9.5 | -0.03 | -0.05 | -0.2% | -0.12 | -11.8% | -3.0% | 8.8% |
| Daisuke Suzuki | +7.1 | +0.08 | +0.04 | -0.3% | +0.17 | +1.3% | +6.1% | 12.2% |
| Arisa Date | +5.9 | +0.07 | -0.01 | -0.9% | +0.23 | -7.7% | -6.1% | 8.8% |
| Sayaka Kayamori | +5.9 | +0.05 | -0.09 | -0.4% | +0.14 | -4.0% | -4.5% | 15.3% |
| Akina Mizuhara | +5.5 | +0.01 | -0.03 | -0.1% | -0.16 | +8.4% | +7.3% | 6.5% |
| Kei Nakabayashi | +4.9 | +0.12 | +0.03 | -0.7% | +0.06 | -3.1% | -5.0% | 11.0% |
| Kotaro Uchikawa | +4.5 | -0.07 | -0.01 | +1.1% | +0.03 | +5.3% | -7.3% | 18.0% |
| Rumi Nikaido | +3.3 | -0.02 | +0.08 | +0.4% | +0.09 | -1.6% | +9.2% | 11.1% |
| Hisato Sasaki | +3.1 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +1.0% | +0.02 | +3.5% | -4.0% | 10.3% |
| Kenji Katsumata | +2.2 | -0.00 | -0.02 | +0.3% | -0.13 | +2.8% | +3.5% | 10.0% |
| Kazunori Takizawa | +2.1 | -0.01 | +0.02 | +0.4% | +0.14 | -1.3% | -6.0% | 8.6% |
| Hiroshi Daigo | +2.1 | +0.02 | -0.03 | -0.1% | +0.23 | +2.8% | -11.0% | 9.5% |
| Rio Tojyo | +1.9 | +0.06 | -0.06 | -0.7% | -0.12 | -5.9% | +2.3% | 9.5% |
| Takaharu Ooi | +1.9 | +0.07 | +0.04 | +0.0% | -0.03 | -0.4% | -8.0% | 10.8% |
| Ken Sonoda | +1.6 | +0.03 | +0.03 | -1.3% | +0.17 | -5.1% | +9.0% | 10.8% |
| Sho Shiratori | +1.4 | +0.04 | +0.04 | -0.5% | -0.15 | -4.4% | -1.7% | 11.7% |
| Takaya Matsugase | +1.1 | +0.06 | -0.10 | +0.4% | +0.07 | +10.6% | -6.7% | 9.7% |
| Hiroe Sugawara | -0.2 | +0.07 | -0.06 | +0.6% | +0.06 | +0.3% | -4.7% | 17.2% |
| Taro Suzuki | -0.3 | +0.05 | -0.04 | +0.2% | +0.11 | +6.1% | -6.6% | 10.5% |
| Saki Kurosawa | -0.5 | -0.00 | +0.04 | -0.0% | -0.04 | +8.8% | -8.8% | 15.7% |
| Naoki Setokuma | -0.5 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.4% | -0.01 | +2.5% | +6.9% | 16.3% |
| Yuumi Uotani | -0.8 | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.6% | -0.08 | -16.4% | -0.7% | 13.6% |
| Go Kobayashi | -0.8 | +0.05 | +0.05 | -0.3% | -0.07 | +0.3% | -7.1% | 10.4% |
| Kana Nakada | -0.9 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.7% | -0.20 | -1.0% | +11.6% | 17.6% |
| Aki Nikaido | -1.0 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.0% | +0.03 | -2.6% | -5.0% | 9.0% |
| Aiko Hinata | -2.4 | +0.02 | +0.00 | -0.2% | -0.08 | +6.1% | -5.4% | 10.1% |
| Mari Takamiya | -3.4 | -0.06 | +0.01 | -0.1% | -0.12 | +2.8% | +3.5% | 13.1% |
| Yoshihiro Matsumoto | -3.5 | -0.04 | +0.01 | -1.3% | -0.11 | +1.5% | +3.5% | 10.6% |
| Masatoshi Sarukawa | -3.8 | +0.03 | -0.03 | -1.4% | +0.14 | -5.5% | +7.5% | 15.8% |
| Futoshi Watanabe | -3.9 | +0.02 | -0.07 | -0.2% | +0.02 | +1.7% | +4.0% | 12.9% |
| Tomohiro Honda | -4.0 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.2% | -0.03 | -2.6% | -2.2% | 12.2% |
| Shingo Hori | -5.1 | -0.06 | -0.07 | +0.5% | +0.12 | +0.3% | +8.3% | 8.1% |
| Namba Shibukawa | -6.0 | +0.00 | +0.07 | -1.2% | -0.08 | +7.5% | +4.4% | 12.2% |
| Masato Hagiwara | -7.6 | +0.03 | -0.03 | -0.8% | +0.03 | -12.0% | -8.6% | 11.2% |
| Maki Asami | -8.1 | +0.08 | +0.01 | -0.7% | -0.22 | -9.0% | -0.8% | 13.3% |
| Sayaka Okada | -9.0 | -0.00 | -0.05 | -1.8% | -0.09 | -7.7% | +1.4% | 12.2% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2023-24 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.