Regular Season · 36 players · 216 games
2023-24 season
Actual results per game were as much as 37pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 1.6pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck.
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 10+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Suzuki Yu | 27 | +1.0 | +0.6 | +16.2 | +15.2 | |
| 2Katsumata Kenji | 29 | +0.9 | +1.0 | +13.9 | +13.0 | |
| 3Mizuhara Akina | 21 | +0.9 | +0.8 | +18.0 | +17.1 | |
| 4Nakabayashi Kei | 26 | +0.6 | +0.4 | +10.3 | +9.6 | |
| 5Date Arisa | 20 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +10.8 | +10.3 | |
| 6Suzuki Taro | 24 | +0.5 | +0.7 | +8.8 | +8.3 | |
| 7Okada Sayaka | 27 | +0.5 | +1.4 | +7.9 | +7.4 | |
| 8Sonoda Ken | 26 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +7.9 | +7.4 | |
| 9Shibukawa Namba | 23 | +0.3 | +0.9 | +6.4 | +6.1 | |
| 10Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 32 | +0.2 | +0.7 | +3.1 | +2.9 | |
| 11Hori Shingo | 28 | +0.2 | +0.7 | +3.3 | +3.1 | |
| 12Watanabe Futoshi | 26 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +1.4 | +1.3 | |
| 13Ooi Takaharu | 22 | +0.1 | 0.0 | +1.4 | +1.3 | |
| 14Sarukawa Masatoshi | 29 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +0.9 | |
| 15Sasaki Hisato | 25 | 0.0 | -0.2 | +0.7 | +0.6 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 16Setokuma Naoki | 24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | |
| 17Uotani Yuumi | 26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.5 | |
| 18Nikaido Rumi | 19 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -1.0 | -0.9 | |
| 19Sugawara Hiroe | 23 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -2.1 | -2.0 | |
| 20Takamiya Mari | 25 | -0.1 | +0.1 | -2.6 | -2.4 | |
| 21Hinata Aiko | 21 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -3.3 | -3.1 | |
| 22Hagiwara Masato | 25 | -0.2 | +0.3 | -3.4 | -3.2 | |
| 23Shiratori Sho | 21 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -4.0 | -3.8 | |
| 24Suzuki Daisuke | 30 | -0.2 | -1.0 | -3.2 | -3.0 | |
| 25Asami Maki | 20 | -0.3 | +0.2 | -5.4 | -5.1 | |
| 26Takizawa Kazunori | 26 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -4.6 | -4.3 | |
| 27Nikaido Aki | 23 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -5.4 | -5.1 | |
| 28Kayamori Sayaka | 24 | -0.4 | -1.0 | -6.9 | -6.5 | |
| 29Honda Tomohiro | 25 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -7.3 | -6.9 | |
| 30Kobayashi Go | 22 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -8.9 | -8.4 | |
| 31Uchikawa Kotaro | 18 | -0.5 | -0.9 | -11.4 | -10.9 | |
| 32Daigo Hiroshi | 25 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -8.6 | -8.1 | |
| 33Kurosawa Saki | 22 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -9.8 | -9.3 | |
| 34Tojyo Rio | 21 | -0.5 | -0.9 | -11.0 | -10.5 | |
| 35Nakada Kana | 14 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -18.7 | -18.0 | |
| 36Matsugase Takaya | 25 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -11.1 | -10.5 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Not being chased (/first riichi) | Painful dealer tsumo rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suzuki Yu | +9.4 | -0.03 | -0.05 | -0.2% | -0.12 | -11.9% | -3.0% | 8.8% |
| Suzuki Daisuke | +7.1 | +0.08 | +0.04 | -0.3% | +0.17 | +1.3% | +6.0% | 12.2% |
| Date Arisa | +5.9 | +0.07 | -0.01 | -0.9% | +0.23 | -7.7% | -6.1% | 8.8% |
| Kayamori Sayaka | +5.9 | +0.05 | -0.09 | -0.4% | +0.14 | -4.0% | -4.5% | 15.3% |
| Mizuhara Akina | +5.5 | +0.01 | -0.03 | -0.1% | -0.16 | +8.4% | +7.3% | 6.5% |
| Nakabayashi Kei | +4.9 | +0.12 | +0.03 | -0.7% | +0.06 | -3.1% | -5.0% | 11.0% |
| Uchikawa Kotaro | +4.5 | -0.07 | -0.01 | +1.1% | +0.03 | +5.3% | -7.3% | 18.0% |
| Nikaido Rumi | +3.3 | -0.02 | +0.08 | +0.4% | +0.09 | -1.6% | +9.2% | 11.1% |
| Sasaki Hisato | +3.1 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +1.0% | +0.02 | +3.5% | -4.0% | 10.3% |
| Katsumata Kenji | +2.2 | -0.00 | -0.02 | +0.3% | -0.13 | +2.8% | +3.5% | 10.0% |
| Daigo Hiroshi | +2.1 | +0.02 | -0.03 | -0.1% | +0.23 | +2.8% | -11.1% | 9.5% |
| Takizawa Kazunori | +2.1 | -0.01 | +0.01 | +0.4% | +0.14 | -1.3% | -6.0% | 8.6% |
| Ooi Takaharu | +1.9 | +0.07 | +0.04 | +0.0% | -0.03 | -0.4% | -8.0% | 10.8% |
| Tojyo Rio | +1.9 | +0.06 | -0.06 | -0.7% | -0.12 | -6.0% | +2.2% | 9.5% |
| Sonoda Ken | +1.6 | +0.03 | +0.03 | -1.3% | +0.17 | -5.1% | +8.9% | 10.8% |
| Shiratori Sho | +1.4 | +0.05 | +0.04 | -0.5% | -0.15 | -4.4% | -1.8% | 11.7% |
| Matsugase Takaya | +1.2 | +0.06 | -0.10 | +0.4% | +0.07 | +10.6% | -6.8% | 9.7% |
| Sugawara Hiroe | -0.2 | +0.07 | -0.06 | +0.6% | +0.06 | +0.3% | -4.7% | 17.2% |
| Suzuki Taro | -0.2 | +0.05 | -0.04 | +0.2% | +0.11 | +6.1% | -6.6% | 10.5% |
| Kurosawa Saki | -0.4 | -0.00 | +0.04 | -0.0% | -0.04 | +8.8% | -8.8% | 15.7% |
| Setokuma Naoki | -0.5 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.4% | -0.01 | +2.5% | +6.8% | 16.3% |
| Uotani Yuumi | -0.7 | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.5% | -0.08 | -16.4% | -0.7% | 13.6% |
| Kobayashi Go | -0.8 | +0.05 | +0.05 | -0.3% | -0.07 | +0.3% | -7.1% | 10.4% |
| Nakada Kana | -0.9 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.7% | -0.20 | -1.0% | +11.5% | 17.6% |
| Nikaido Aki | -1.0 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.0% | +0.03 | -2.6% | -5.0% | 9.0% |
| Hinata Aiko | -2.4 | +0.02 | +0.00 | -0.2% | -0.08 | +6.1% | -5.5% | 10.1% |
| Takamiya Mari | -3.4 | -0.06 | +0.01 | -0.1% | -0.12 | +2.8% | +3.4% | 13.1% |
| Matsumoto Yoshihiro | -3.5 | -0.04 | +0.01 | -1.3% | -0.11 | +1.5% | +3.5% | 10.6% |
| Sarukawa Masatoshi | -3.9 | +0.03 | -0.03 | -1.4% | +0.14 | -5.5% | +7.5% | 15.8% |
| Watanabe Futoshi | -4.0 | +0.02 | -0.07 | -0.2% | +0.02 | +1.7% | +4.0% | 12.9% |
| Honda Tomohiro | -4.0 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.2% | -0.03 | -2.6% | -2.3% | 12.2% |
| Hori Shingo | -5.1 | -0.06 | -0.07 | +0.5% | +0.12 | +0.3% | +8.2% | 8.1% |
| Shibukawa Namba | -6.0 | +0.00 | +0.07 | -1.2% | -0.08 | +7.5% | +4.4% | 12.2% |
| Hagiwara Masato | -7.6 | +0.03 | -0.03 | -0.8% | +0.03 | -12.1% | -8.7% | 11.2% |
| Asami Maki | -8.1 | +0.08 | +0.01 | -0.7% | -0.22 | -9.0% | -0.9% | 13.3% |
| Okada Sayaka | -9.1 | -0.00 | -0.05 | -1.8% | -0.09 | -7.7% | +1.3% | 12.2% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2023-24 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.