Regular Season · 21 players · 140 games
2018-19 season
Actual results per game were as much as 35pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 1.8pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck.
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 10+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ooi Takaharu | 27 | +1.1 | +0.4 | +17.6 | +16.5 | |
| 2Takizawa Kazunori | 30 | +0.7 | +1.5 | +10.5 | +9.8 | |
| 3Sasaki Hisato | 37 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +6.2 | +5.7 | |
| 4Asakura Koshin | 28 | +0.4 | +1.3 | +6.4 | +6.0 | |
| 5Kondo Seiichi | 24 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +6.0 | +5.7 | |
| 6Sonoda Ken | 31 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +4.0 | +3.7 | |
| 7Kurosawa Saki | 22 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +5.3 | +5.0 | |
| 8Maehara Yudai | 27 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +3.1 | +2.9 | |
| 9Suzuki Taro | 29 | +0.1 | -0.4 | +1.0 | +1.0 | |
| 10Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 27 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +0.8 | |
| 11Katsumata Kenji | 26 | 0.0 | +0.5 | +0.6 | +0.6 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 12Nikaido Aki | 24 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.9 | |
| 13Hagiwara Masato | 30 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.9 | |
| 14Kayamori Sayaka | 29 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -2.3 | -2.1 | |
| 15Kobayashi Go | 27 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -4.3 | -4.0 | |
| 16Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 25 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -6.5 | -6.1 | |
| 17Murakami Jun | 20 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -8.1 | -7.7 | |
| 18Uotani Yuumi | 27 | -0.6 | +0.1 | -9.2 | -8.7 | |
| 19Takamiya Mari | 16 | -0.6 | -0.9 | -17.1 | -16.5 | |
| 20Setokuma Naoki | 28 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -10.1 | -9.5 | |
| 21Shiratori Sho | 26 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -12.1 | -11.3 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Not being chased (/first riichi) | Painful dealer tsumo rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ooi Takaharu | +12.4 | -0.02 | +0.04 | -0.1% | -0.09 | -5.1% | -8.6% | 10.1% |
| Nikaido Aki | +6.3 | -0.06 | -0.01 | -0.5% | -0.09 | +9.9% | -9.6% | 8.5% |
| Suzuki Taro | +5.4 | -0.07 | +0.03 | +0.4% | +0.01 | -5.9% | -6.9% | 12.4% |
| Kondo Seiichi | +5.1 | -0.01 | +0.04 | +0.8% | -0.07 | -0.3% | +4.2% | 15.9% |
| Hagiwara Masato | +4.7 | -0.03 | -0.04 | +0.6% | +0.09 | +4.6% | +2.2% | 12.5% |
| Kayamori Sayaka | +3.9 | -0.00 | +0.14 | 0.0% | +0.11 | -7.8% | -5.3% | 8.7% |
| Maehara Yudai | +2.4 | -0.03 | +0.01 | +1.2% | +0.06 | -3.5% | -3.3% | 8.1% |
| Kobayashi Go | +1.7 | +0.01 | -0.01 | +0.7% | +0.23 | -1.8% | +8.4% | 11.1% |
| Sasaki Hisato | +1.3 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.3% | +0.20 | -2.2% | -0.2% | 13.4% |
| Takamiya Mari | +0.7 | +0.05 | -0.08 | +0.7% | +0.23 | -6.7% | +0.3% | 11.4% |
| Murakami Jun | +0.7 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.5% | +0.27 | +2.0% | +0.9% | 15.2% |
| Kurosawa Saki | +0.4 | -0.09 | +0.04 | +0.7% | -0.16 | +8.8% | +0.3% | 7.7% |
| Sonoda Ken | +0.2 | -0.06 | -0.01 | +0.1% | -0.01 | +8.8% | -1.8% | 8.4% |
| Setokuma Naoki | +0.0 | -0.05 | -0.01 | +0.4% | +0.17 | -4.0% | +7.3% | 8.7% |
| Matsumoto Yoshihiro | -4.0 | +0.04 | -0.03 | -0.6% | +0.01 | +2.5% | +3.6% | 10.0% |
| Shiratori Sho | -5.0 | -0.02 | +0.03 | +0.1% | -0.01 | +0.3% | +4.0% | 18.2% |
| Ishibashi Nobuhiro | -5.3 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.7% | -0.14 | -1.9% | -0.6% | 14.8% |
| Katsumata Kenji | -5.9 | -0.12 | -0.04 | -0.6% | +0.03 | +6.1% | +5.7% | 16.5% |
| Takizawa Kazunori | -6.1 | +0.06 | -0.01 | -0.6% | -0.13 | -2.6% | +0.3% | 12.0% |
| Asakura Koshin | -8.2 | +0.02 | -0.00 | -0.8% | -0.08 | -5.9% | -6.1% | 11.4% |
| Uotani Yuumi | -10.5 | -0.19 | -0.03 | -0.3% | +0.13 | +2.0% | +0.9% | 16.5% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2018-19 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.