Regular Season · 21 players · 140 games
2018-19 season
Actual results per game were as much as 35pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 4.9pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck.
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 10+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Takaharu Ooi | 27 | +2.9 | +1.1 | +17.6 | +14.7 | |
| 2Kazunori Takizawa | 30 | +1.9 | +3.9 | +10.5 | +8.6 | |
| 3Hisato Sasaki | 37 | +1.3 | +1.4 | +6.2 | +4.8 | |
| 4Koshin Asakura | 28 | +1.1 | +3.2 | +6.4 | +5.3 | |
| 5Seiichi Kondo | 24 | +0.9 | +0.2 | +6.0 | +5.1 | |
| 6Saki Kurosawa | 22 | +0.7 | +0.9 | +5.3 | +4.6 | |
| 7Ken Sonoda | 31 | +0.7 | +0.9 | +4.0 | +3.2 | |
| 8Yudai Maehara | 27 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +3.1 | +2.6 | |
| 9Taro Suzuki | 29 | +0.2 | -1.0 | +1.0 | +0.9 | |
| 10Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 27 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +0.8 | +0.7 | |
| 11Kenji Katsumata | 26 | +0.1 | +1.4 | +0.6 | +0.5 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 12Aki Nikaido | 24 | -0.3 | -1.7 | -2.0 | -1.7 | |
| 13Masato Hagiwara | 30 | -0.4 | -1.6 | -2.0 | -1.7 | |
| 14Sayaka Kayamori | 29 | -0.4 | -1.4 | -2.3 | -1.9 | |
| 15Go Kobayashi | 27 | -0.7 | -1.3 | -4.3 | -3.6 | |
| 16Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 25 | -1.0 | -0.2 | -6.5 | -5.5 | |
| 17Jun Murakami | 20 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -8.1 | -7.1 | |
| 18Yuumi Uotani | 27 | -1.5 | +0.3 | -9.2 | -7.7 | |
| 19Naoki Setokuma | 28 | -1.7 | -2.3 | -10.1 | -8.4 | |
| 20Mari Takamiya | 16 | -1.8 | -2.5 | -17.1 | -15.3 | |
| 21Sho Shiratori | 26 | -1.9 | -1.5 | -12.1 | -10.1 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Takaharu Ooi | +12.3 | -0.02 | +0.04 | -0.1% | -0.09 | -5.1% | -8.6% | 10.1% |
| Aki Nikaido | +6.5 | -0.06 | -0.01 | -0.5% | -0.09 | +9.9% | -9.5% | 8.5% |
| Taro Suzuki | +5.4 | -0.07 | +0.03 | +0.4% | +0.01 | -5.9% | -6.9% | 12.4% |
| Seiichi Kondo | +5.2 | -0.00 | +0.04 | +0.8% | -0.07 | -0.3% | +4.2% | 15.9% |
| Masato Hagiwara | +4.6 | -0.03 | -0.04 | +0.6% | +0.09 | +4.6% | +2.3% | 12.5% |
| Sayaka Kayamori | +3.9 | -0.00 | +0.14 | 0.0% | +0.11 | -7.8% | -5.3% | 8.7% |
| Yudai Maehara | +2.4 | -0.03 | +0.01 | +1.2% | +0.06 | -3.5% | -3.2% | 8.1% |
| Go Kobayashi | +1.7 | +0.01 | -0.01 | +0.7% | +0.23 | -1.8% | +8.4% | 11.1% |
| Hisato Sasaki | +1.1 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.3% | +0.20 | -2.2% | +0.1% | 13.4% |
| Mari Takamiya | +0.8 | +0.05 | -0.08 | +0.7% | +0.23 | -6.7% | +0.4% | 11.4% |
| Jun Murakami | +0.7 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.5% | +0.27 | +2.0% | +0.9% | 15.2% |
| Saki Kurosawa | +0.4 | -0.09 | +0.04 | +0.7% | -0.16 | +8.8% | +0.4% | 7.7% |
| Ken Sonoda | +0.2 | -0.06 | -0.01 | +0.1% | -0.01 | +8.8% | -1.7% | 8.4% |
| Naoki Setokuma | +0.2 | -0.05 | -0.01 | +0.4% | +0.17 | -4.0% | +7.6% | 8.7% |
| Yoshihiro Matsumoto | -4.0 | +0.04 | -0.03 | -0.6% | +0.01 | +2.5% | +3.7% | 10.0% |
| Sho Shiratori | -5.0 | -0.02 | +0.03 | +0.1% | -0.01 | +0.3% | +4.1% | 18.2% |
| Nobuhiro Ishibashi | -5.4 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.7% | -0.14 | -1.9% | -0.6% | 14.8% |
| Kenji Katsumata | -6.0 | -0.13 | -0.04 | -0.6% | +0.03 | +6.1% | +5.8% | 16.5% |
| Kazunori Takizawa | -6.1 | +0.06 | -0.01 | -0.6% | -0.13 | -2.6% | +0.4% | 12.0% |
| Koshin Asakura | -8.1 | +0.02 | -0.00 | -0.8% | -0.08 | -5.9% | -6.1% | 11.4% |
| Yuumi Uotani | -10.5 | -0.19 | -0.03 | -0.3% | +0.13 | +2.0% | +0.9% | 16.5% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2018-19 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.