Regular Season · 40 players · 300 games
2025-26 season
Actual results per game were as much as 34pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 2.4pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck.
Spread of skill estimates
2.4
pt/game; actual spread 34.0
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 10+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Shimoishi Geki | 38 | +1.4 | +1.2 | +16.2 | +14.8 | |
| 2Nagai Kosuke | 34 | +1.1 | +0.9 | +14.8 | +13.7 | |
| 3Sonoda Ken | 36 | +0.9 | +0.8 | +11.2 | +10.3 | |
| 4Takizawa Kazunori | 33 | +0.8 | +1.1 | +11.2 | +10.3 | |
| 5Uchikawa Kotaro | 36 | +0.7 | +0.9 | +8.9 | +8.2 | |
| 6Watanabe Futoshi | 33 | +0.6 | +0.5 | +8.6 | +7.9 | |
| 7Nikaido Aki | 26 | +0.6 | +0.9 | +10.4 | +9.8 | |
| 8Nakada Kana | 27 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +8.5 | +7.9 | |
| 9Takamiya Mari | 27 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +8.2 | +7.7 | |
| 10Shibukawa Namba | 35 | +0.4 | +1.3 | +5.0 | +4.6 | |
| 11Ishii Kazuma | 39 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +4.1 | +3.8 | |
| 12Takeuchi Genta | 33 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +4.6 | +4.3 | |
| 13Ooi Takaharu | 39 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +3.2 | +2.9 | |
| 14Suzuki Yu | 34 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +3.4 | +3.1 | |
| 15Daigo Hiroshi | 37 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +3.1 | +2.8 | |
| 16Kurosawa Saki | 26 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +4.2 | +4.0 | |
| 17Shiratori Sho | 35 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +3.1 | +2.9 | |
| 18Date Arisa | 30 | +0.2 | 0.0 | +3.0 | +2.8 | |
| 19Sasaki Hisato | 30 | 0.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.3 | |
| 20Tojyo Rio | 28 | 0.0 | -0.6 | +0.2 | +0.2 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 21Kayamori Sayaka | 25 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -2.4 | -2.2 | |
| 22Mizuhara Akina | 29 | -0.2 | -0.6 | -2.5 | -2.3 | |
| 23Asai Takaki | 25 | -0.2 | +0.1 | -3.3 | -3.1 | |
| 24Setokuma Naoki | 29 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -2.9 | -2.7 | |
| 25Honda Tomohiro | 35 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -2.6 | -2.4 | |
| 26Asami Maki | 22 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -4.7 | -4.5 | |
| 27Aikawa Megumu | 26 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -4.4 | -4.1 | |
| 28Hagiwara Masato | 30 | -0.3 | +0.3 | -4.9 | -4.6 | |
| 29Suzuki Daisuke | 27 | -0.4 | -0.9 | -5.9 | -5.5 | |
| 30Okada Sayaka | 27 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -6.0 | -5.6 | |
| 31Hinata Aiko | 20 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -9.3 | -8.9 | |
| 32Akutsu Shota | 26 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -7.7 | -7.2 | |
| 33Nakabayashi Kei | 32 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -6.9 | -6.4 | |
| 34Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 26 | -0.7 | -0.2 | -11.3 | -10.6 | |
| 35Suzuki Taro | 29 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -11.5 | -10.8 | |
| 36Miura Tomohiro | 27 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -14.1 | -13.3 | |
| 37Katsumata Kenji | 24 | -0.9 | -1.4 | -16.6 | -15.7 | |
| 38HIRO Shibata | 28 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -14.5 | -13.5 | |
| 39Hori Shingo | 32 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -13.8 | -12.8 | |
| 40Kobayashi Go | 25 | -1.0 | -0.4 | -17.8 | -16.8 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Not being chased (/first riichi) | Painful dealer tsumo rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tojyo Rio | +7.3 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.6% | -0.11 | -6.9% | -0.0% | 12.8% |
| Takamiya Mari | +7.2 | +0.01 | -0.02 | +0.9% | +0.11 | -2.1% | -5.5% | 12.2% |
| Nagai Kosuke | +5.7 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.6% | -0.00 | -0.4% | -6.9% | 11.2% |
| Shimoishi Geki | +5.7 | +0.03 | +0.09 | +0.3% | +0.12 | -7.7% | -6.4% | 14.5% |
| Nakada Kana | +5.4 | -0.03 | +0.01 | -0.5% | +0.03 | +8.5% | +3.1% | 9.8% |
| Suzuki Daisuke | +5.0 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.6% | +0.17 | -6.8% | +3.1% | 12.2% |
| Watanabe Futoshi | +4.0 | -0.00 | -0.01 | +0.5% | +0.26 | +3.0% | -6.0% | 12.8% |
| Mizuhara Akina | +3.9 | +0.01 | -0.03 | +0.8% | +0.04 | +1.1% | -2.5% | 15.1% |
| Sonoda Ken | +3.7 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.7% | -0.00 | +10.9% | -7.1% | 16.8% |
| Shiratori Sho | +3.6 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.4% | +0.05 | +8.8% | -8.9% | 12.5% |
| Date Arisa | +3.2 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.6% | -0.07 | -4.5% | +5.3% | 15.2% |
| Kurosawa Saki | +3.1 | -0.00 | -0.05 | +0.3% | +0.00 | +1.7% | +12.1% | 8.6% |
| Setokuma Naoki | +3.1 | +0.02 | +0.08 | +0.2% | -0.19 | +12.1% | +6.6% | 13.8% |
| Katsumata Kenji | +2.7 | -0.08 | +0.02 | +0.7% | +0.09 | +1.7% | -4.0% | 11.1% |
| Hinata Aiko | +2.4 | -0.02 | -0.12 | +0.7% | +0.02 | -2.4% | -2.6% | 6.6% |
| Kayamori Sayaka | +1.8 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.1% | +0.29 | -9.4% | +4.8% | 11.4% |
| Takeuchi Genta | +1.6 | +0.02 | -0.05 | +1.5% | -0.06 | +4.6% | -10.8% | 10.7% |
| Uchikawa Kotaro | +0.4 | -0.08 | -0.01 | +0.5% | -0.11 | +5.3% | -1.9% | 10.9% |
| Aikawa Megumu | +0.3 | -0.03 | -0.06 | +0.9% | +0.11 | -1.3% | +8.4% | 13.4% |
| Takizawa Kazunori | +0.2 | +0.07 | +0.01 | -0.3% | +0.01 | -0.6% | +7.9% | 11.1% |
| Honda Tomohiro | +0.0 | -0.02 | +0.04 | +0.0% | +0.14 | -8.1% | -1.3% | 15.5% |
| Okada Sayaka | -0.0 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.3% | -0.02 | -0.2% | +2.1% | 16.3% |
| Suzuki Taro | -0.1 | +0.01 | -0.01 | -0.6% | -0.26 | -4.6% | -2.1% | 8.8% |
| Ishii Kazuma | -1.0 | +0.03 | -0.07 | +0.3% | -0.20 | +6.6% | +0.3% | 10.3% |
| Daigo Hiroshi | -1.2 | +0.04 | -0.08 | +0.0% | +0.06 | +13.6% | -5.8% | 14.3% |
| Nikaido Aki | -1.3 | -0.02 | -0.09 | -0.5% | +0.04 | -0.4% | +2.2% | 10.2% |
| Asami Maki | -1.5 | +0.03 | -0.04 | +0.3% | +0.25 | -9.4% | -1.2% | 12.0% |
| Sasaki Hisato | -1.6 | +0.01 | -0.02 | -0.1% | -0.15 | +12.8% | -1.0% | 13.9% |
| Akutsu Shota | -1.7 | +0.07 | -0.04 | +0.5% | +0.14 | +1.3% | -3.5% | 18.6% |
| Ooi Takaharu | -1.8 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.7% | +0.11 | -2.0% | +6.7% | 12.9% |
| Miura Tomohiro | -1.9 | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.9% | +0.21 | -5.5% | +12.1% | 13.5% |
| Suzuki Yu | -1.9 | +0.03 | -0.02 | +0.3% | +0.02 | -0.9% | -5.7% | 11.2% |
| Nakabayashi Kei | -4.9 | -0.10 | -0.04 | -0.7% | +0.05 | -6.2% | +5.3% | 10.8% |
| Hori Shingo | -5.0 | +0.05 | -0.02 | -0.7% | +0.20 | +3.1% | -1.8% | 8.1% |
| Asai Takaki | -5.1 | -0.00 | +0.01 | -0.8% | +0.11 | -8.3% | -1.2% | 13.6% |
| HIRO Shibata | -7.0 | -0.06 | -0.01 | -0.2% | -0.19 | +6.2% | +2.9% | 17.2% |
| Shibukawa Namba | -7.2 | +0.05 | -0.05 | -0.4% | -0.18 | -4.4% | +1.9% | 12.8% |
| Hagiwara Masato | -8.2 | +0.02 | +0.04 | -0.3% | -0.04 | -3.1% | -1.1% | 9.9% |
| Matsumoto Yoshihiro | -8.7 | -0.02 | -0.07 | -0.8% | +0.25 | -3.6% | -1.2% | 12.0% |
| Kobayashi Go | -12.2 | -0.04 | -0.00 | -0.4% | -0.25 | -9.7% | -6.5% | 9.9% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2025-26 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.