Regular Season · 40 players · 300 games
2025-26 season
Actual results per game were as much as 34pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 6.3pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck.
Spread of skill estimates
6.3
pt/game; actual spread 34.0
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 10+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Geki Shimoishi | 38 | +3.5 | +2.9 | +16.2 | +12.6 | |
| 2Kosuke Nagai | 34 | +3.0 | +2.3 | +14.8 | +11.8 | |
| 3Ken Sonoda | 36 | +2.3 | +2.0 | +11.2 | +8.8 | |
| 4Kazunori Takizawa | 33 | +2.2 | +2.8 | +11.2 | +9.0 | |
| 5Kotaro Uchikawa | 36 | +1.9 | +2.3 | +8.9 | +7.0 | |
| 6Aki Nikaido | 26 | +1.7 | +2.4 | +10.4 | +8.8 | |
| 7Futoshi Watanabe | 33 | +1.7 | +1.1 | +8.6 | +6.9 | |
| 8Kana Nakada | 27 | +1.4 | +0.7 | +8.5 | +7.1 | |
| 9Mari Takamiya | 27 | +1.4 | +0.2 | +8.2 | +6.8 | |
| 10Namba Shibukawa | 35 | +1.0 | +3.2 | +5.0 | +4.0 | |
| 11Kazuma Ishii | 39 | +0.9 | +1.5 | +4.1 | +3.2 | |
| 12Genta Takeuchi | 33 | +0.9 | +0.8 | +4.6 | +3.7 | |
| 13Takaharu Ooi | 39 | +0.7 | +1.4 | +3.2 | +2.5 | |
| 14Saki Kurosawa | 26 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +4.2 | +3.5 | |
| 15Yu Suzuki | 34 | +0.7 | +1.3 | +3.4 | +2.7 | |
| 16Hiroshi Daigo | 37 | +0.7 | +1.2 | +3.1 | +2.4 | |
| 17Sho Shiratori | 35 | +0.6 | -0.1 | +3.1 | +2.5 | |
| 18Arisa Date | 30 | +0.6 | 0.0 | +3.0 | +2.5 | |
| 19Hisato Sasaki | 30 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.3 | |
| 20Rio Tojyo | 28 | 0.0 | -1.6 | +0.2 | +0.2 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 21Sayaka Kayamori | 25 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -2.4 | -2.0 | |
| 22Akina Mizuhara | 29 | -0.4 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -2.1 | |
| 23Takaki Asai | 25 | -0.5 | +0.4 | -3.3 | -2.8 | |
| 24Naoki Setokuma | 29 | -0.5 | -1.4 | -2.9 | -2.4 | |
| 25Tomohiro Honda | 35 | -0.5 | -0.7 | -2.6 | -2.1 | |
| 26Maki Asami | 22 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -4.7 | -4.1 | |
| 27Megumu Aikawa | 26 | -0.7 | -1.0 | -4.4 | -3.7 | |
| 28Masato Hagiwara | 30 | -0.9 | +0.8 | -4.9 | -4.0 | |
| 29Daisuke Suzuki | 27 | -1.0 | -2.3 | -5.9 | -4.9 | |
| 30Sayaka Okada | 27 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -6.0 | -5.0 | |
| 31Aiko Hinata | 20 | -1.2 | -2.0 | -9.3 | -8.1 | |
| 32Shota Akutsu | 26 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -7.7 | -6.5 | |
| 33Kei Nakabayashi | 32 | -1.3 | -0.5 | -6.9 | -5.6 | |
| 34Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 26 | -1.8 | -0.5 | -11.3 | -9.5 | |
| 35Taro Suzuki | 29 | -2.0 | -2.6 | -11.5 | -9.5 | |
| 36Tomohiro Miura | 27 | -2.3 | -2.6 | -14.1 | -11.8 | |
| 37HIRO Shibata | 28 | -2.5 | -1.6 | -14.5 | -12.0 | |
| 38Kenji Katsumata | 24 | -2.5 | -3.8 | -16.6 | -14.1 | |
| 39Shingo Hori | 32 | -2.6 | -2.2 | -13.8 | -11.2 | |
| 40Go Kobayashi | 25 | -2.8 | -1.1 | -17.8 | -15.0 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Tojyo | +7.3 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.6% | -0.11 | -6.9% | +0.0% | 12.8% |
| Mari Takamiya | +7.1 | +0.01 | -0.02 | +0.9% | +0.11 | -2.1% | -5.4% | 12.2% |
| Kosuke Nagai | +5.7 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.6% | -0.00 | -0.4% | -6.9% | 11.2% |
| Geki Shimoishi | +5.7 | +0.03 | +0.09 | +0.3% | +0.12 | -7.7% | -6.4% | 14.5% |
| Kana Nakada | +5.4 | -0.03 | +0.01 | -0.5% | +0.03 | +8.5% | +3.1% | 9.8% |
| Daisuke Suzuki | +5.0 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.6% | +0.17 | -6.8% | +3.1% | 12.2% |
| Futoshi Watanabe | +4.0 | -0.00 | -0.01 | +0.5% | +0.26 | +3.0% | -6.0% | 12.8% |
| Akina Mizuhara | +3.9 | +0.01 | -0.03 | +0.8% | +0.04 | +1.1% | -2.4% | 15.1% |
| Ken Sonoda | +3.7 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.7% | -0.00 | +10.9% | -7.0% | 16.8% |
| Sho Shiratori | +3.6 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.4% | +0.05 | +8.8% | -8.9% | 12.5% |
| Arisa Date | +3.2 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.6% | -0.07 | -4.5% | +5.3% | 15.2% |
| Saki Kurosawa | +3.1 | -0.00 | -0.05 | +0.3% | +0.00 | +1.7% | +12.1% | 8.6% |
| Naoki Setokuma | +3.1 | +0.02 | +0.08 | +0.2% | -0.19 | +12.1% | +6.7% | 13.8% |
| Kenji Katsumata | +2.6 | -0.08 | +0.02 | +0.7% | +0.08 | +1.7% | -3.9% | 11.1% |
| Aiko Hinata | +2.4 | -0.02 | -0.12 | +0.7% | +0.02 | -2.4% | -2.6% | 6.6% |
| Sayaka Kayamori | +1.8 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.1% | +0.29 | -9.4% | +4.8% | 11.4% |
| Genta Takeuchi | +1.5 | +0.02 | -0.05 | +1.5% | -0.06 | +4.6% | -10.7% | 10.7% |
| Kotaro Uchikawa | +0.4 | -0.08 | -0.01 | +0.5% | -0.11 | +5.3% | -1.8% | 10.9% |
| Megumu Aikawa | +0.3 | -0.03 | -0.06 | +0.9% | +0.11 | -1.3% | +8.4% | 13.4% |
| Kazunori Takizawa | +0.2 | +0.07 | +0.01 | -0.3% | +0.01 | -0.6% | +8.0% | 11.1% |
| Tomohiro Honda | -0.0 | -0.02 | +0.04 | +0.0% | +0.14 | -8.1% | -1.2% | 15.5% |
| Sayaka Okada | -0.0 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.3% | -0.02 | -0.2% | +2.2% | 16.3% |
| Taro Suzuki | -0.1 | +0.01 | -0.01 | -0.6% | -0.26 | -4.6% | -2.1% | 8.8% |
| Kazuma Ishii | -1.0 | +0.03 | -0.07 | +0.3% | -0.20 | +6.6% | +0.4% | 10.3% |
| Hiroshi Daigo | -1.2 | +0.04 | -0.08 | +0.0% | +0.06 | +13.6% | -5.7% | 14.3% |
| Aki Nikaido | -1.3 | -0.02 | -0.09 | -0.5% | +0.04 | -0.4% | +2.3% | 10.2% |
| Maki Asami | -1.5 | +0.03 | -0.04 | +0.3% | +0.25 | -9.4% | -1.2% | 12.0% |
| Hisato Sasaki | -1.6 | +0.01 | -0.02 | -0.1% | -0.15 | +12.8% | -1.0% | 13.9% |
| Shota Akutsu | -1.6 | +0.07 | -0.04 | +0.5% | +0.14 | +1.3% | -3.4% | 18.6% |
| Takaharu Ooi | -1.8 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.7% | +0.11 | -2.0% | +6.8% | 12.9% |
| Yu Suzuki | -1.8 | +0.03 | -0.02 | +0.3% | +0.02 | -0.9% | -5.7% | 11.2% |
| Tomohiro Miura | -1.8 | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.9% | +0.21 | -5.5% | +12.1% | 13.5% |
| Kei Nakabayashi | -4.9 | -0.10 | -0.04 | -0.7% | +0.05 | -6.2% | +5.3% | 10.8% |
| Shingo Hori | -5.0 | +0.05 | -0.02 | -0.7% | +0.20 | +3.1% | -1.8% | 8.1% |
| Takaki Asai | -5.1 | -0.00 | +0.01 | -0.8% | +0.11 | -8.3% | -1.2% | 13.6% |
| HIRO Shibata | -7.1 | -0.06 | -0.01 | -0.2% | -0.19 | +6.2% | +2.9% | 17.2% |
| Namba Shibukawa | -7.2 | +0.05 | -0.05 | -0.4% | -0.18 | -4.4% | +1.9% | 12.8% |
| Masato Hagiwara | -8.2 | +0.02 | +0.04 | -0.3% | -0.04 | -3.1% | -1.1% | 9.9% |
| Yoshihiro Matsumoto | -8.7 | -0.02 | -0.07 | -0.8% | +0.25 | -3.6% | -1.2% | 12.0% |
| Go Kobayashi | -12.2 | -0.04 | -0.00 | -0.4% | -0.25 | -9.7% | -6.5% | 9.9% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2025-26 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.