Regular Season · 32 players · 180 games
2021-22 season
Actual results per game were as much as 40pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 5.4pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck.
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 10+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Akina Mizuhara | 21 | +2.8 | +2.7 | +21.0 | +18.2 | |
| 2Makoto Sawazaki | 26 | +2.5 | +3.2 | +15.4 | +12.9 | |
| 3Kazunori Takizawa | 24 | +1.8 | +0.6 | +12.3 | +10.4 | |
| 4Arisa Date | 21 | +1.7 | -0.6 | +12.8 | +11.1 | |
| 5Sayaka Kayamori | 26 | +1.6 | +0.3 | +9.7 | +8.1 | |
| 6Takaharu Ooi | 25 | +1.5 | +2.2 | +9.7 | +8.2 | |
| 7Takaya Matsugase | 28 | +1.3 | +1.4 | +7.6 | +6.3 | |
| 8Kenji Katsumata | 23 | +1.2 | +2.6 | +8.6 | +7.3 | |
| 9Shingo Hori | 30 | +1.1 | +1.6 | +6.0 | +4.9 | |
| 10Go Kobayashi | 29 | +0.9 | +1.7 | +5.3 | +4.4 | |
| 11Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 25 | +0.9 | +0.8 | +5.8 | +4.9 | |
| 12Taro Suzuki | 28 | +0.8 | +2.4 | +4.7 | +3.9 | |
| 13Sho Shiratori | 23 | +0.7 | +0.9 | +4.7 | +4.0 | |
| 14Koshin Asakura | 23 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +3.0 | +2.6 | |
| 15Rio Tojyo | 16 | +0.4 | -1.5 | +3.5 | +3.1 | |
| 16Aki Nikaido | 21 | +0.3 | -1.1 | +2.4 | +2.0 | |
| 17Kanako Maruyama | 12 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +3.8 | +3.4 | |
| 18Seiichi Kondo | 22 | 0.0 | -1.3 | +0.2 | +0.2 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 19Ken Sonoda | 27 | -0.3 | +0.3 | -2.1 | -1.8 | |
| 20Hisato Sasaki | 25 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -3.1 | -2.6 | |
| 21Yuumi Uotani | 26 | -0.7 | +0.1 | -4.2 | -3.5 | |
| 22Kotaro Uchikawa | 18 | -0.9 | -1.5 | -7.8 | -6.9 | |
| 23Saki Kurosawa | 23 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -6.5 | -5.5 | |
| 24Aiko Hinata | 17 | -1.1 | +0.3 | -9.9 | -8.8 | |
| 25Mari Takamiya | 20 | -1.5 | -2.0 | -11.9 | -10.3 | |
| 26Sayaka Okada | 16 | -1.7 | -1.6 | -16.4 | -14.6 | |
| 27Rumi Nikaido | 18 | -1.8 | -1.4 | -15.3 | -13.5 | |
| 28Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 17 | -1.9 | -1.3 | -16.8 | -15.0 | |
| 29Tomohiro Honda | 24 | -1.9 | -1.4 | -12.8 | -10.9 | |
| 30Jun Murakami | 23 | -2.4 | -3.0 | -16.7 | -14.3 | |
| 31Masato Hagiwara | 22 | -2.5 | -2.4 | -17.9 | -15.4 | |
| 32Naoki Setokuma | 21 | -2.6 | -3.0 | -19.3 | -16.7 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arisa Date | +16.0 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +1.0% | -0.01 | -5.5% | +3.4% | 10.8% |
| Rio Tojyo | +14.4 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +2.1% | +0.09 | -3.7% | -14.0% | 14.0% |
| Kazunori Takizawa | +9.1 | +0.03 | -0.01 | +0.7% | -0.13 | +3.1% | +6.2% | 15.9% |
| Aki Nikaido | +8.5 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.6% | -0.02 | -3.6% | -10.9% | 7.7% |
| Sayaka Kayamori | +8.3 | +0.10 | +0.08 | +0.7% | +0.01 | -3.5% | +8.7% | 6.5% |
| Seiichi Kondo | +7.1 | -0.00 | +0.02 | +0.5% | -0.05 | +2.5% | +0.4% | 7.2% |
| Akina Mizuhara | +5.7 | +0.07 | -0.05 | +0.4% | -0.04 | -3.5% | +1.3% | 16.2% |
| Kotaro Uchikawa | +1.9 | -0.08 | +0.10 | -0.5% | +0.07 | -0.7% | -2.8% | 17.2% |
| Yoshihiro Matsumoto | +1.7 | -0.08 | +0.04 | +0.9% | +0.12 | +9.2% | +2.3% | 12.2% |
| Takaya Matsugase | +1.5 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.2% | +0.06 | +3.0% | +7.3% | 10.3% |
| Koshin Asakura | +0.4 | +0.04 | +0.01 | -0.0% | +0.10 | +9.3% | -1.6% | 12.8% |
| Sho Shiratori | +0.1 | -0.04 | +0.02 | -0.3% | +0.06 | -12.8% | +4.4% | 16.7% |
| Makoto Sawazaki | -0.0 | -0.00 | -0.02 | -0.4% | -0.01 | -4.9% | +3.1% | 17.3% |
| Mari Takamiya | -0.1 | +0.08 | -0.03 | -1.2% | +0.16 | -1.6% | +1.1% | 9.7% |
| Shingo Hori | -0.8 | -0.03 | +0.05 | +0.7% | -0.09 | +2.5% | -0.1% | 17.0% |
| Jun Murakami | -1.1 | -0.10 | +0.07 | +0.3% | +0.23 | -8.6% | -11.2% | 16.7% |
| Saki Kurosawa | -1.1 | +0.11 | +0.01 | -0.8% | -0.06 | -5.5% | +2.7% | 17.1% |
| Takaharu Ooi | -1.2 | +0.07 | -0.04 | -0.5% | +0.00 | +3.8% | +7.3% | 17.9% |
| Naoki Setokuma | -2.1 | -0.02 | +0.03 | -0.8% | +0.17 | +17.1% | +2.9% | 9.6% |
| Go Kobayashi | -2.2 | +0.03 | +0.04 | -0.6% | +0.01 | +0.8% | +4.5% | 8.2% |
| Hisato Sasaki | -2.3 | -0.01 | -0.07 | -0.4% | +0.23 | -13.1% | +3.5% | 8.6% |
| Kanako Maruyama | -2.9 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.0% | +0.03 | +6.9% | +7.7% | 17.1% |
| Ken Sonoda | -3.4 | +0.02 | +0.04 | -0.6% | -0.12 | +10.0% | +6.4% | 12.0% |
| Yuumi Uotani | -4.6 | +0.03 | -0.02 | -0.5% | -0.18 | -4.9% | -0.4% | 9.5% |
| Masato Hagiwara | -4.8 | -0.05 | +0.06 | +0.1% | -0.05 | -1.2% | +2.3% | 19.1% |
| Kenji Katsumata | -4.9 | -0.02 | +0.04 | -0.6% | +0.07 | +12.4% | -5.2% | 8.3% |
| Sayaka Okada | -5.2 | +0.02 | +0.05 | -1.1% | -0.10 | -0.7% | -5.9% | 17.3% |
| Tomohiro Honda | -5.8 | +0.03 | -0.01 | -1.0% | -0.10 | -5.5% | -1.2% | 10.2% |
| Rumi Nikaido | -6.1 | +0.04 | -0.06 | -1.7% | +0.23 | +0.3% | +3.1% | 11.1% |
| Taro Suzuki | -6.2 | -0.04 | +0.08 | -0.3% | -0.06 | +19.4% | +6.1% | 9.5% |
| Nobuhiro Ishibashi | -8.2 | -0.03 | +0.01 | +1.2% | -0.16 | +36.5% | -9.8% | 17.5% |
| Aiko Hinata | -12.2 | -0.12 | -0.07 | +1.7% | -0.14 | -4.0% | -15.7% | 11.9% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2021-22 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.