Regular Season · 32 players · 180 games
2021-22 season
Actual results per game were as much as 40pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 2.0pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck.
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 10+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mizuhara Akina | 21 | +1.0 | +1.0 | +21.0 | +20.0 | |
| 2Sawazaki Makoto | 26 | +0.9 | +1.2 | +15.4 | +14.5 | |
| 3Takizawa Kazunori | 24 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +12.3 | +11.6 | |
| 4Date Arisa | 21 | +0.6 | -0.2 | +12.8 | +12.2 | |
| 5Kayamori Sayaka | 26 | +0.6 | +0.1 | +9.7 | +9.1 | |
| 6Ooi Takaharu | 25 | +0.6 | +0.9 | +9.7 | +9.1 | |
| 7Matsugase Takaya | 28 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +7.6 | +7.1 | |
| 8Katsumata Kenji | 23 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +8.6 | +8.1 | |
| 9Hori Shingo | 30 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +6.0 | +5.6 | |
| 10Kobayashi Go | 29 | +0.4 | +0.7 | +5.3 | +5.0 | |
| 11Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 25 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +5.8 | +5.5 | |
| 12Suzuki Taro | 28 | +0.3 | +0.9 | +4.7 | +4.4 | |
| 13Shiratori Sho | 23 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +4.7 | +4.5 | |
| 14Asakura Koshin | 23 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +3.0 | +2.8 | |
| 15Tojyo Rio | 16 | +0.1 | -0.6 | +3.5 | +3.4 | |
| 16Nikaido Aki | 21 | +0.1 | -0.4 | +2.4 | +2.2 | |
| 17Maruyama Kanako | 12 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +3.8 | +3.6 | |
| 18Kondo Seiichi | 22 | 0.0 | -0.5 | +0.2 | +0.2 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 19Sonoda Ken | 27 | -0.1 | +0.1 | -2.1 | -2.0 | |
| 20Sasaki Hisato | 25 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -3.1 | -2.9 | |
| 21Uotani Yuumi | 26 | -0.3 | 0.0 | -4.2 | -3.9 | |
| 22Uchikawa Kotaro | 18 | -0.3 | -0.6 | -7.8 | -7.4 | |
| 23Kurosawa Saki | 23 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -6.5 | -6.1 | |
| 24Hinata Aiko | 17 | -0.4 | +0.1 | -9.9 | -9.5 | |
| 25Takamiya Mari | 20 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -11.9 | -11.3 | |
| 26Okada Sayaka | 16 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -16.4 | -15.7 | |
| 27Nikaido Rumi | 18 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -15.3 | -14.7 | |
| 28Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 17 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -16.8 | -16.2 | |
| 29Honda Tomohiro | 24 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -12.8 | -12.1 | |
| 30Murakami Jun | 23 | -0.9 | -1.1 | -16.7 | -15.8 | |
| 31Hagiwara Masato | 22 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -17.9 | -17.0 | |
| 32Setokuma Naoki | 21 | -0.9 | -1.1 | -19.3 | -18.4 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Not being chased (/first riichi) | Painful dealer tsumo rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date Arisa | +16.0 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +1.0% | -0.01 | -5.5% | +3.3% | 10.8% |
| Tojyo Rio | +14.4 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +2.1% | +0.09 | -3.7% | -14.1% | 14.0% |
| Takizawa Kazunori | +9.1 | +0.03 | -0.01 | +0.7% | -0.13 | +3.1% | +6.2% | 15.9% |
| Nikaido Aki | +8.5 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.6% | -0.02 | -3.6% | -10.9% | 7.7% |
| Kayamori Sayaka | +8.4 | +0.10 | +0.08 | +0.7% | +0.01 | -3.5% | +8.6% | 6.5% |
| Kondo Seiichi | +7.1 | -0.00 | +0.02 | +0.5% | -0.05 | +2.5% | +0.3% | 7.2% |
| Mizuhara Akina | +5.7 | +0.07 | -0.05 | +0.4% | -0.04 | -3.5% | +0.8% | 16.2% |
| Uchikawa Kotaro | +2.3 | -0.07 | +0.10 | -0.5% | +0.07 | -0.7% | -2.8% | 17.2% |
| Matsumoto Yoshihiro | +1.7 | -0.08 | +0.04 | +0.9% | +0.12 | +9.2% | +2.2% | 12.2% |
| Matsugase Takaya | +1.5 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.2% | +0.06 | +3.0% | +7.3% | 10.3% |
| Asakura Koshin | +0.4 | +0.04 | +0.01 | -0.0% | +0.10 | +9.3% | -1.7% | 12.8% |
| Shiratori Sho | +0.1 | -0.04 | +0.02 | -0.3% | +0.06 | -12.9% | +4.4% | 16.7% |
| Sawazaki Makoto | -0.0 | -0.00 | -0.02 | -0.4% | -0.01 | -4.9% | +3.1% | 17.3% |
| Takamiya Mari | -0.1 | +0.08 | -0.03 | -1.2% | +0.16 | -1.6% | +1.1% | 9.7% |
| Hori Shingo | -0.8 | -0.03 | +0.05 | +0.7% | -0.09 | +2.5% | -0.1% | 17.0% |
| Murakami Jun | -1.1 | -0.10 | +0.07 | +0.3% | +0.23 | -8.6% | -11.3% | 16.7% |
| Ooi Takaharu | -1.2 | +0.07 | -0.04 | -0.5% | +0.00 | +3.8% | +7.3% | 17.9% |
| Kurosawa Saki | -1.4 | +0.11 | +0.00 | -0.8% | -0.06 | -5.5% | +2.7% | 17.1% |
| Setokuma Naoki | -2.0 | -0.02 | +0.03 | -0.7% | +0.17 | +17.1% | +2.9% | 9.6% |
| Kobayashi Go | -2.3 | +0.03 | +0.04 | -0.6% | +0.01 | +0.8% | +4.5% | 8.2% |
| Sasaki Hisato | -2.5 | -0.01 | -0.07 | -0.4% | +0.23 | -13.1% | +3.5% | 8.6% |
| Maruyama Kanako | -2.6 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.1% | +0.03 | +6.9% | +7.7% | 17.1% |
| Sonoda Ken | -3.4 | +0.02 | +0.04 | -0.6% | -0.12 | +10.0% | +6.3% | 12.0% |
| Uotani Yuumi | -4.4 | +0.03 | -0.01 | -0.5% | -0.18 | -4.9% | -0.4% | 9.5% |
| Hagiwara Masato | -4.8 | -0.05 | +0.06 | +0.1% | -0.05 | -1.2% | +2.2% | 19.1% |
| Katsumata Kenji | -4.9 | -0.02 | +0.04 | -0.6% | +0.07 | +12.4% | -5.2% | 8.3% |
| Okada Sayaka | -5.2 | +0.02 | +0.05 | -1.1% | -0.10 | -0.7% | -5.9% | 17.3% |
| Honda Tomohiro | -5.8 | +0.03 | -0.01 | -1.0% | -0.10 | -5.5% | -1.2% | 10.2% |
| Nikaido Rumi | -6.1 | +0.04 | -0.06 | -1.7% | +0.23 | +0.3% | +3.1% | 11.1% |
| Suzuki Taro | -6.2 | -0.04 | +0.08 | -0.3% | -0.06 | +19.4% | +6.1% | 9.5% |
| Ishibashi Nobuhiro | -8.2 | -0.03 | +0.01 | +1.2% | -0.16 | +36.5% | -9.8% | 17.5% |
| Hinata Aiko | -12.4 | -0.12 | -0.06 | +1.7% | -0.14 | -4.0% | -15.7% | 11.9% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2021-22 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.