Regular Season · 32 players · 188 games
2022-23 season
Actual results per game were as much as 29pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 1.6pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck.
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 10+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Date Arisa | 24 | +0.7 | +0.3 | +13.3 | +12.6 | |
| 2Honda Tomohiro | 28 | +0.7 | +0.9 | +11.0 | +10.3 | |
| 3Mizuhara Akina | 23 | +0.6 | +1.4 | +11.8 | +11.1 | |
| 4Sonoda Ken | 35 | +0.6 | +0.5 | +7.5 | +6.9 | |
| 5Katsumata Kenji | 23 | +0.6 | +0.5 | +10.5 | +9.9 | |
| 6Sasaki Hisato | 24 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +8.9 | +8.4 | |
| 7Matsugase Takaya | 27 | +0.5 | +0.8 | +7.9 | +7.4 | |
| 8Takamiya Mari | 23 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +8.4 | +8.0 | |
| 9Tojyo Rio | 24 | +0.4 | 0.0 | +6.8 | +6.4 | |
| 10Uchikawa Kotaro | 25 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +6.0 | +5.7 | |
| 11Hinata Aiko | 21 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +6.1 | +5.8 | |
| 12Nikaido Rumi | 21 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +5.0 | +4.8 | |
| 13Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 25 | +0.2 | -0.2 | +4.1 | +3.9 | |
| 14Okada Sayaka | 18 | +0.1 | 0.0 | +2.0 | +2.0 | |
| 15Nikaido Aki | 23 | +0.1 | -0.1 | +1.2 | +1.1 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 16Kurosawa Saki | 23 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.4 | |
| 17Setokuma Naoki | 24 | -0.1 | +0.4 | -1.4 | -1.3 | |
| 18Shiratori Sho | 24 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -3.5 | -3.3 | |
| 19Ooi Takaharu | 24 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -3.8 | -3.6 | |
| 20Suzuki Yu | 24 | -0.2 | +0.1 | -3.9 | -3.7 | |
| 21Shibukawa Namba | 24 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -4.4 | -4.1 | |
| 22Nakabayashi Kei | 24 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -4.6 | -4.3 | |
| 23Hori Shingo | 27 | -0.3 | 0.0 | -4.6 | -4.3 | |
| 24Kobayashi Go | 23 | -0.3 | -1.2 | -5.6 | -5.3 | |
| 25Takizawa Kazunori | 23 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -5.9 | -5.6 | |
| 26Maruyama Kanako | 12 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -11.8 | -11.5 | |
| 27Kayamori Sayaka | 25 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -7.5 | -7.0 | |
| 28Kondo Seiichi | 21 | -0.5 | -0.1 | -9.3 | -8.9 | |
| 29Murakami Jun | 23 | -0.7 | -0.3 | -13.4 | -12.7 | |
| 30Hagiwara Masato | 19 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -16.1 | -15.4 | |
| 31Suzuki Taro | 24 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -13.6 | -12.9 | |
| 32Uotani Yuumi | 24 | -0.8 | -1.1 | -14.8 | -14.0 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Not being chased (/first riichi) | Painful dealer tsumo rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobayashi Go | +11.3 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.4% | -0.04 | +10.6% | -4.1% | 10.0% |
| Date Arisa | +9.9 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +1.0% | +0.06 | -4.4% | -8.6% | 7.8% |
| Matsumoto Yoshihiro | +6.8 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.8% | +0.05 | -1.8% | -3.5% | 15.4% |
| Tojyo Rio | +6.8 | -0.01 | +0.09 | +0.3% | +0.11 | +8.0% | +3.1% | 13.9% |
| Katsumata Kenji | +4.2 | -0.03 | -0.05 | +0.6% | -0.08 | -8.0% | +4.0% | 10.4% |
| Sonoda Ken | +3.2 | -0.03 | +0.06 | -0.1% | -0.03 | -10.2% | +2.8% | 12.8% |
| Kurosawa Saki | +3.1 | +0.12 | -0.03 | +0.1% | +0.11 | -0.2% | -2.3% | 9.9% |
| Nikaido Rumi | +2.5 | -0.10 | +0.05 | +0.3% | -0.02 | -9.0% | +11.0% | 16.4% |
| Okada Sayaka | +2.3 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.1% | +0.10 | +13.6% | -1.0% | 13.8% |
| Nikaido Aki | +2.2 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.5% | +0.14 | -4.6% | +10.5% | 10.5% |
| Shiratori Sho | +2.0 | -0.03 | +0.06 | +0.9% | -0.28 | -6.7% | -0.3% | 12.0% |
| Hinata Aiko | +1.9 | +0.11 | +0.04 | -0.3% | +0.49 | -10.7% | -8.0% | 15.5% |
| Sasaki Hisato | +1.8 | +0.08 | -0.05 | +0.3% | +0.03 | -1.6% | +1.4% | 19.5% |
| Kayamori Sayaka | +1.5 | -0.04 | +0.03 | -0.6% | -0.12 | +19.1% | -2.4% | 9.1% |
| Nakabayashi Kei | +1.2 | +0.10 | -0.01 | -0.3% | +0.15 | +3.6% | -3.8% | 11.7% |
| Takamiya Mari | +1.2 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +1.1% | +0.04 | +3.6% | +2.2% | 12.0% |
| Uchikawa Kotaro | +0.4 | +0.10 | +0.04 | +0.0% | +0.15 | -10.1% | -2.6% | 19.0% |
| Honda Tomohiro | +0.3 | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.0% | +0.07 | +9.1% | -1.8% | 11.0% |
| Uotani Yuumi | +0.1 | +0.02 | -0.04 | -0.8% | -0.13 | +0.3% | +4.9% | 14.1% |
| Maruyama Kanako | -0.1 | -0.03 | +0.03 | +1.0% | -0.10 | -3.1% | +5.3% | 9.1% |
| Matsugase Takaya | -1.4 | -0.01 | +0.04 | +0.1% | -0.02 | +4.5% | -2.3% | 4.1% |
| Ooi Takaharu | -1.6 | +0.09 | -0.01 | -0.4% | -0.24 | -7.2% | +4.5% | 9.5% |
| Takizawa Kazunori | -2.6 | +0.11 | -0.06 | -0.8% | -0.02 | -13.3% | +11.8% | 10.7% |
| Shibukawa Namba | -4.3 | -0.02 | +0.04 | -0.4% | +0.02 | +5.3% | +7.1% | 8.8% |
| Hori Shingo | -4.8 | -0.05 | +0.06 | -0.3% | -0.09 | -3.6% | +0.8% | 11.1% |
| Suzuki Yu | -4.9 | -0.03 | +0.06 | +0.2% | +0.10 | -6.0% | -0.3% | 11.8% |
| Hagiwara Masato | -6.7 | -0.06 | +0.02 | -0.2% | -0.28 | +5.3% | +1.9% | 8.5% |
| Suzuki Taro | -7.0 | -0.03 | -0.07 | -0.6% | +0.06 | -1.2% | +1.5% | 8.5% |
| Mizuhara Akina | -7.0 | -0.03 | +0.01 | -1.1% | -0.05 | +16.0% | -11.1% | 9.3% |
| Setokuma Naoki | -7.4 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.9% | +0.03 | +15.7% | -2.1% | 13.0% |
| Kondo Seiichi | -7.4 | +0.08 | -0.10 | -0.5% | -0.00 | +4.1% | +3.1% | 7.5% |
| Murakami Jun | -9.8 | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.3% | -0.08 | -4.4% | +1.2% | 11.4% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2022-23 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.