Regular Season · 32 players · 188 games
2022-23 season
Actual results per game were as much as 29pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 4.2pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck.
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 10+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arisa Date | 24 | +2.0 | +0.7 | +13.3 | +11.3 | |
| 2Tomohiro Honda | 28 | +1.9 | +2.4 | +11.0 | +9.1 | |
| 3Akina Mizuhara | 23 | +1.7 | +3.5 | +11.8 | +10.0 | |
| 4Ken Sonoda | 35 | +1.5 | +1.1 | +7.5 | +6.0 | |
| 5Kenji Katsumata | 23 | +1.5 | +1.2 | +10.5 | +9.0 | |
| 6Hisato Sasaki | 24 | +1.3 | +1.4 | +8.9 | +7.6 | |
| 7Takaya Matsugase | 27 | +1.3 | +2.0 | +7.9 | +6.6 | |
| 8Mari Takamiya | 23 | +1.2 | +1.4 | +8.4 | +7.2 | |
| 9Rio Tojyo | 24 | +1.0 | 0.0 | +6.8 | +5.8 | |
| 10Kotaro Uchikawa | 25 | +0.9 | +1.1 | +6.0 | +5.1 | |
| 11Aiko Hinata | 21 | +0.8 | +0.7 | +6.1 | +5.3 | |
| 12Rumi Nikaido | 21 | +0.7 | +0.4 | +5.0 | +4.3 | |
| 13Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 25 | +0.6 | -0.5 | +4.1 | +3.5 | |
| 14Sayaka Okada | 18 | +0.2 | 0.0 | +2.0 | +1.8 | |
| 15Aki Nikaido | 23 | +0.2 | -0.2 | +1.2 | +1.0 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 16Saki Kurosawa | 23 | -0.1 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -0.3 | |
| 17Naoki Setokuma | 24 | -0.2 | +1.2 | -1.4 | -1.2 | |
| 18Sho Shiratori | 24 | -0.5 | -1.1 | -3.5 | -3.0 | |
| 19Takaharu Ooi | 24 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -3.8 | -3.2 | |
| 20Yu Suzuki | 24 | -0.6 | +0.2 | -3.9 | -3.3 | |
| 21Namba Shibukawa | 24 | -0.7 | 0.0 | -4.4 | -3.7 | |
| 22Kei Nakabayashi | 24 | -0.7 | -1.1 | -4.6 | -3.9 | |
| 23Shingo Hori | 27 | -0.8 | 0.0 | -4.6 | -3.8 | |
| 24Go Kobayashi | 23 | -0.8 | -3.2 | -5.6 | -4.8 | |
| 25Kazunori Takizawa | 23 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -5.9 | -5.0 | |
| 26Kanako Maruyama | 12 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -11.8 | -10.8 | |
| 27Sayaka Kayamori | 25 | -1.2 | -1.8 | -7.5 | -6.3 | |
| 28Seiichi Kondo | 21 | -1.3 | -0.3 | -9.3 | -8.1 | |
| 29Jun Murakami | 23 | -1.9 | -0.7 | -13.4 | -11.4 | |
| 30Masato Hagiwara | 19 | -2.0 | -1.5 | -16.1 | -14.1 | |
| 31Taro Suzuki | 24 | -2.1 | -1.3 | -13.6 | -11.6 | |
| 32Yuumi Uotani | 24 | -2.2 | -2.9 | -14.8 | -12.6 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go Kobayashi | +11.3 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.4% | -0.04 | +10.6% | -4.1% | 10.0% |
| Arisa Date | +9.9 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +1.0% | +0.06 | -4.4% | -8.6% | 7.8% |
| Yoshihiro Matsumoto | +6.8 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.8% | +0.05 | -1.8% | -3.5% | 15.4% |
| Rio Tojyo | +6.8 | -0.01 | +0.09 | +0.3% | +0.11 | +8.0% | +3.1% | 13.9% |
| Kenji Katsumata | +4.2 | -0.03 | -0.05 | +0.6% | -0.08 | -8.0% | +4.1% | 10.4% |
| Ken Sonoda | +3.2 | -0.03 | +0.06 | -0.1% | -0.03 | -10.2% | +2.9% | 12.8% |
| Saki Kurosawa | +3.0 | +0.12 | -0.03 | +0.1% | +0.11 | -0.2% | -2.2% | 9.9% |
| Rumi Nikaido | +2.5 | -0.10 | +0.05 | +0.3% | -0.02 | -9.0% | +11.1% | 16.4% |
| Sayaka Okada | +2.2 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.1% | +0.10 | +13.6% | -1.0% | 13.8% |
| Aki Nikaido | +2.2 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.5% | +0.14 | -4.6% | +10.5% | 10.5% |
| Sho Shiratori | +2.0 | -0.03 | +0.06 | +0.9% | -0.28 | -6.7% | -0.2% | 12.0% |
| Aiko Hinata | +1.9 | +0.11 | +0.04 | -0.3% | +0.49 | -10.7% | -8.0% | 15.5% |
| Hisato Sasaki | +1.8 | +0.08 | -0.05 | +0.3% | +0.03 | -1.6% | +1.5% | 19.5% |
| Sayaka Kayamori | +1.5 | -0.04 | +0.03 | -0.6% | -0.12 | +19.1% | -2.3% | 9.1% |
| Kei Nakabayashi | +1.3 | +0.10 | -0.02 | -0.3% | +0.15 | +3.6% | -3.7% | 11.7% |
| Mari Takamiya | +1.2 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +1.1% | +0.04 | +3.6% | +2.3% | 12.0% |
| Kotaro Uchikawa | +0.4 | +0.10 | +0.04 | +0.0% | +0.15 | -10.1% | -2.5% | 19.0% |
| Tomohiro Honda | +0.3 | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.0% | +0.07 | +9.1% | -1.8% | 11.0% |
| Yuumi Uotani | +0.2 | +0.02 | -0.04 | -0.8% | -0.13 | +0.3% | +4.9% | 14.1% |
| Kanako Maruyama | -0.1 | -0.03 | +0.03 | +1.0% | -0.10 | -3.1% | +5.3% | 9.1% |
| Takaya Matsugase | -1.4 | -0.01 | +0.04 | +0.1% | -0.02 | +4.5% | -2.2% | 4.1% |
| Takaharu Ooi | -1.6 | +0.09 | -0.01 | -0.4% | -0.24 | -7.2% | +4.5% | 9.5% |
| Kazunori Takizawa | -2.6 | +0.11 | -0.06 | -0.8% | -0.02 | -13.3% | +11.9% | 10.7% |
| Namba Shibukawa | -4.3 | -0.02 | +0.04 | -0.4% | +0.02 | +5.3% | +7.2% | 8.8% |
| Shingo Hori | -4.8 | -0.05 | +0.06 | -0.3% | -0.09 | -3.6% | +0.8% | 11.1% |
| Yu Suzuki | -4.9 | -0.03 | +0.06 | +0.2% | +0.10 | -5.9% | -0.2% | 11.8% |
| Masato Hagiwara | -6.7 | -0.06 | +0.02 | -0.2% | -0.28 | +5.3% | +1.9% | 8.5% |
| Akina Mizuhara | -7.0 | -0.03 | +0.01 | -1.1% | -0.05 | +16.0% | -11.0% | 9.3% |
| Taro Suzuki | -7.0 | -0.03 | -0.07 | -0.6% | +0.06 | -1.2% | +1.5% | 8.5% |
| Naoki Setokuma | -7.4 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.9% | +0.03 | +15.7% | -2.1% | 13.0% |
| Seiichi Kondo | -7.4 | +0.08 | -0.10 | -0.5% | -0.00 | +4.1% | +3.1% | 7.5% |
| Jun Murakami | -9.8 | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.3% | -0.08 | -4.4% | +1.3% | 11.4% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2022-23 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.