Regular Season · 30 players · 180 games
2020-21 season
Actual results per game were as much as 35pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 2.2pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck.
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 10+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sasaki Hisato | 30 | +1.1 | +0.1 | +16.5 | +15.3 | |
| 2Uchikawa Kotaro | 26 | +1.1 | +1.0 | +18.0 | +16.9 | |
| 3Kobayashi Go | 31 | +0.8 | +0.8 | +10.9 | +10.1 | |
| 4Hori Shingo | 28 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +9.8 | +9.2 | |
| 5Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 27 | +0.6 | +0.4 | +10.1 | +9.5 | |
| 6Ooi Takaharu | 25 | +0.5 | +0.8 | +9.4 | +8.8 | |
| 7Kurosawa Saki | 31 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +6.2 | +5.8 | |
| 8Murakami Jun | 26 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +4.7 | +4.4 | |
| 9Shiratori Sho | 21 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +5.2 | +5.0 | |
| 10Kayamori Sayaka | 23 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +4.8 | +4.5 | |
| 11Setokuma Naoki | 32 | +0.1 | 0.0 | +1.8 | +1.7 | |
| 12Hinata Aiko | 17 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +2.2 | +2.2 | |
| 13Okada Sayaka | 15 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +2.2 | +2.2 | |
| 14Suzuki Taro | 26 | 0.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.2 | |
| 15Takizawa Kazunori | 31 | 0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 16Sonoda Ken | 28 | -0.1 | +0.2 | -1.0 | -1.0 | |
| 17Nikaido Aki | 28 | -0.1 | -0.8 | -1.3 | -1.3 | |
| 18Kondo Seiichi | 22 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -2.1 | -2.0 | |
| 19Katsumata Kenji | 31 | -0.2 | +0.3 | -2.4 | -2.2 | |
| 20Maruyama Kanako | 10 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -10.4 | -10.1 | |
| 21Mizuhara Akina | 19 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -6.2 | -5.9 | |
| 22Fujisaki Satoshi | 19 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -8.7 | -8.3 | |
| 23Uotani Yuumi | 26 | -0.4 | +0.2 | -6.9 | -6.5 | |
| 24Ishibashi Nobuhiro | 21 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -9.0 | -8.6 | |
| 25Takamiya Mari | 20 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -12.3 | -11.7 | |
| 26Maehara Yudai | 21 | -0.6 | 0.0 | -12.0 | -11.4 | |
| 27Sawazaki Makoto | 21 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -13.4 | -12.7 | |
| 28Wakutsu Akira | 19 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -14.8 | -14.1 | |
| 29Asakura Koshin | 19 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -15.5 | -14.8 | |
| 30Hagiwara Masato | 27 | -1.1 | -1.4 | -17.1 | -16.0 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Not being chased (/first riichi) | Painful dealer tsumo rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sasaki Hisato | +15.6 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +1.2% | +0.04 | +3.6% | +2.1% | 10.8% |
| Nikaido Aki | +8.1 | +0.03 | -0.03 | +0.6% | +0.09 | -0.3% | +3.3% | 9.8% |
| Uchikawa Kotaro | +5.9 | +0.05 | +0.00 | -0.1% | +0.20 | -5.9% | +2.9% | 16.1% |
| Matsumoto Yoshihiro | +5.4 | +0.01 | -0.02 | +0.5% | -0.07 | -1.1% | +9.8% | 11.7% |
| Murakami Jun | +3.4 | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.3% | -0.05 | -6.6% | -6.8% | 11.8% |
| Ishibashi Nobuhiro | +3.0 | -0.03 | -0.03 | +0.7% | +0.02 | -11.7% | +4.2% | 12.7% |
| Kobayashi Go | +2.6 | -0.01 | +0.03 | -0.2% | -0.04 | -0.5% | +8.4% | 16.3% |
| Kurosawa Saki | +2.4 | +0.04 | +0.00 | -0.9% | +0.12 | +0.3% | +5.3% | 7.5% |
| Setokuma Naoki | +2.0 | +0.03 | +0.09 | -0.3% | -0.08 | +7.3% | +3.3% | 8.5% |
| Shiratori Sho | +1.0 | +0.11 | -0.00 | +0.5% | +0.09 | -11.1% | -0.9% | 6.6% |
| Hori Shingo | +0.8 | -0.04 | +0.02 | -0.7% | -0.22 | +3.9% | +10.5% | 8.6% |
| Okada Sayaka | +0.4 | +0.13 | +0.03 | -0.3% | -0.02 | +7.5% | +4.3% | 14.6% |
| Kondo Seiichi | -0.2 | -0.01 | +0.05 | +0.2% | +0.18 | +12.3% | +0.3% | 17.3% |
| Fujisaki Satoshi | -0.2 | +0.07 | +0.03 | -0.7% | -0.11 | +1.7% | +8.6% | 17.0% |
| Hagiwara Masato | -0.5 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.3% | +0.23 | +11.7% | -11.9% | 22.6% |
| Takizawa Kazunori | -0.5 | +0.04 | -0.02 | +0.2% | -0.07 | +1.7% | -4.5% | 15.8% |
| Suzuki Taro | -1.1 | +0.10 | +0.05 | -0.6% | -0.07 | -5.9% | +2.5% | 13.3% |
| Takamiya Mari | -1.1 | -0.05 | +0.05 | +0.8% | -0.04 | -3.1% | +3.6% | 14.3% |
| Ooi Takaharu | -1.4 | -0.02 | +0.05 | +0.5% | -0.03 | +2.1% | +0.3% | 10.5% |
| Maruyama Kanako | -2.4 | +0.10 | +0.06 | -0.9% | +0.04 | +11.0% | +5.3% | 7.1% |
| Wakutsu Akira | -2.4 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.3% | +0.08 | +3.3% | +4.6% | 18.8% |
| Hinata Aiko | -3.2 | -0.02 | +0.01 | -0.6% | -0.19 | -2.1% | +3.9% | 10.2% |
| Sonoda Ken | -3.4 | -0.04 | -0.05 | -0.5% | +0.05 | -3.1% | +7.7% | 12.5% |
| Mizuhara Akina | -3.8 | +0.03 | +0.06 | -0.3% | -0.06 | +2.5% | +4.6% | 9.1% |
| Asakura Koshin | -4.1 | -0.01 | -0.05 | +0.1% | -0.20 | +0.3% | -6.5% | 16.9% |
| Kayamori Sayaka | -4.3 | -0.09 | +0.03 | -0.5% | +0.19 | -9.0% | +8.6% | 7.7% |
| Katsumata Kenji | -5.9 | +0.01 | +0.02 | -0.5% | -0.31 | -13.1% | -0.9% | 11.3% |
| Sawazaki Makoto | -7.7 | -0.05 | +0.00 | -1.0% | +0.17 | +1.1% | -3.3% | 7.8% |
| Uotani Yuumi | -8.9 | -0.01 | -0.06 | -0.8% | -0.11 | -10.7% | -1.2% | 12.6% |
| Maehara Yudai | -11.7 | +0.04 | -0.05 | -0.8% | -0.10 | +10.7% | +8.2% | 12.3% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2020-21 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.