Regular Season · 30 players · 180 games
2020-21 season
Actual results per game were as much as 35pt apart between players, but the skill estimates with luck removed differ by only 5.8pt. Most of the gaps in the table are luck.
Actual and skill estimateper game, by how far luck lifted or sank them
Points from luckfrom starting hands, draws and ura-dora, pt/game
With league-average luck as 0: what the quality of starting hands, draws and ura-dora was worth in points (Methodology 4 (Japanese)).
Skill estimatepoints per game, highest estimate first, 10+ games
| Player | Games | 90% interval | Skill estimate | Estimate, luck removed | Actual | Actual − estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hisato Sasaki | 30 | +3.0 | +0.2 | +16.5 | +13.5 | |
| 2Kotaro Uchikawa | 26 | +2.9 | +2.5 | +18.0 | +15.1 | |
| 3Go Kobayashi | 31 | +2.0 | +2.0 | +10.9 | +8.9 | |
| 4Shingo Hori | 28 | +1.7 | +2.0 | +9.8 | +8.2 | |
| 5Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 27 | +1.7 | +1.0 | +10.1 | +8.4 | |
| 6Takaharu Ooi | 25 | +1.5 | +2.2 | +9.4 | +7.9 | |
| 7Saki Kurosawa | 31 | +1.2 | +0.9 | +6.2 | +5.1 | |
| 8Jun Murakami | 26 | +0.8 | +0.3 | +4.7 | +4.0 | |
| 9Sho Shiratori | 21 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +5.2 | +4.5 | |
| 10Sayaka Kayamori | 23 | +0.7 | +1.7 | +4.8 | +4.1 | |
| 11Naoki Setokuma | 32 | +0.3 | -0.1 | +1.8 | +1.4 | |
| 12Aiko Hinata | 17 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +2.2 | +2.0 | |
| 13Sayaka Okada | 15 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +2.2 | +2.0 | |
| 14Taro Suzuki | 26 | 0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.2 | |
| 15Kazunori Takizawa | 31 | 0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | |
| Below here: under the league average | ||||||
| 16Ken Sonoda | 28 | -0.2 | +0.5 | -1.0 | -0.8 | |
| 17Aki Nikaido | 28 | -0.2 | -2.1 | -1.3 | -1.1 | |
| 18Seiichi Kondo | 22 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -2.1 | -1.8 | |
| 19Kenji Katsumata | 31 | -0.4 | +0.8 | -2.4 | -1.9 | |
| 20Kanako Maruyama | 10 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -10.4 | -9.7 | |
| 21Akina Mizuhara | 19 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -6.2 | -5.4 | |
| 22Satoshi Fujisaki | 19 | -1.1 | -1.4 | -8.7 | -7.6 | |
| 23Yuumi Uotani | 26 | -1.1 | +0.4 | -6.9 | -5.8 | |
| 24Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 21 | -1.2 | -2.1 | -9.0 | -7.8 | |
| 25Mari Takamiya | 20 | -1.6 | -1.9 | -12.3 | -10.7 | |
| 26Yudai Maehara | 21 | -1.6 | -0.1 | -12.0 | -10.4 | |
| 27Makoto Sawazaki | 21 | -1.8 | -1.0 | -13.4 | -11.6 | |
| 28Akira Wakutsu | 19 | -1.8 | -2.0 | -14.8 | -13.0 | |
| 29Koshin Asakura | 19 | -1.9 | -1.8 | -15.5 | -13.6 | |
| 30Masato Hagiwara | 27 | -2.8 | -3.6 | -17.1 | -14.2 | |
The band is the 90% interval of the skill estimate, the dot the estimate, the vertical line the league average (0). The fewer the games, the more the skill estimate is pulled toward the league average. "Estimate, luck removed" also takes the luck of starting hands, draws and ura-dora out of the points first (Methodology (Japanese)).The "actual − estimate" bars show how far results ran above (blue) or below (red) the estimate.
Luckdifference from the league average; bluer is luckier, redder unluckier
| Player | Points from luck (/game) | Starting hand (shanten) | Dora and red fives dealt | Draw luck | Ura-dora luck | Ippatsu rate | Avoiding a chase riichi (/first riichi) | Mangan+ tsumo against dealer rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hisato Sasaki | +15.5 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +1.2% | +0.04 | +3.6% | +2.1% | 10.8% |
| Aki Nikaido | +8.0 | +0.03 | -0.03 | +0.6% | +0.09 | -0.3% | +3.3% | 9.8% |
| Kotaro Uchikawa | +5.9 | +0.05 | +0.00 | -0.1% | +0.20 | -5.9% | +2.9% | 16.1% |
| Yoshihiro Matsumoto | +5.4 | +0.01 | -0.02 | +0.5% | -0.07 | -1.1% | +9.8% | 11.7% |
| Jun Murakami | +3.3 | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.3% | -0.05 | -6.6% | -6.8% | 11.8% |
| Nobuhiro Ishibashi | +3.0 | -0.03 | -0.03 | +0.7% | +0.02 | -11.7% | +4.2% | 12.7% |
| Go Kobayashi | +2.6 | -0.01 | +0.03 | -0.2% | -0.04 | -0.5% | +8.4% | 16.3% |
| Saki Kurosawa | +2.4 | +0.04 | +0.00 | -0.9% | +0.12 | +0.3% | +5.3% | 7.5% |
| Naoki Setokuma | +2.0 | +0.03 | +0.09 | -0.3% | -0.08 | +7.3% | +3.3% | 8.5% |
| Sho Shiratori | +1.0 | +0.11 | -0.00 | +0.5% | +0.09 | -11.0% | -0.8% | 6.6% |
| Shingo Hori | +0.8 | -0.04 | +0.02 | -0.7% | -0.22 | +3.9% | +10.5% | 8.6% |
| Sayaka Okada | +0.4 | +0.13 | +0.03 | -0.3% | -0.02 | +7.5% | +4.3% | 14.6% |
| Seiichi Kondo | -0.2 | -0.01 | +0.05 | +0.2% | +0.18 | +12.3% | +0.4% | 17.3% |
| Satoshi Fujisaki | -0.3 | +0.07 | +0.03 | -0.7% | -0.11 | +1.7% | +8.7% | 17.0% |
| Kazunori Takizawa | -0.5 | +0.04 | -0.02 | +0.2% | -0.07 | +1.7% | -4.4% | 15.8% |
| Masato Hagiwara | -0.5 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.3% | +0.23 | +11.7% | -11.9% | 22.6% |
| Taro Suzuki | -1.1 | +0.10 | +0.05 | -0.6% | -0.07 | -5.9% | +2.5% | 13.3% |
| Mari Takamiya | -1.1 | -0.05 | +0.05 | +0.8% | -0.04 | -3.1% | +3.6% | 14.3% |
| Takaharu Ooi | -1.3 | -0.02 | +0.05 | +0.5% | -0.03 | +2.1% | +0.4% | 10.5% |
| Kanako Maruyama | -2.4 | +0.10 | +0.06 | -0.9% | +0.04 | +11.0% | +5.3% | 7.1% |
| Akira Wakutsu | -2.5 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.3% | +0.08 | +3.3% | +4.7% | 18.8% |
| Aiko Hinata | -3.2 | -0.02 | +0.01 | -0.6% | -0.19 | -2.1% | +3.9% | 10.2% |
| Ken Sonoda | -3.4 | -0.04 | -0.05 | -0.5% | +0.05 | -3.1% | +7.7% | 12.5% |
| Akina Mizuhara | -3.8 | +0.03 | +0.06 | -0.3% | -0.06 | +2.5% | +4.6% | 9.1% |
| Koshin Asakura | -4.1 | -0.01 | -0.05 | +0.1% | -0.20 | +0.3% | -6.5% | 16.9% |
| Sayaka Kayamori | -4.3 | -0.09 | +0.03 | -0.5% | +0.19 | -9.0% | +8.7% | 7.7% |
| Kenji Katsumata | -5.8 | +0.01 | +0.02 | -0.5% | -0.31 | -13.1% | -0.9% | 11.3% |
| Makoto Sawazaki | -7.7 | -0.05 | +0.00 | -1.0% | +0.17 | +1.1% | -3.2% | 7.8% |
| Yuumi Uotani | -8.8 | -0.01 | -0.06 | -0.8% | -0.11 | -10.7% | -1.1% | 12.6% |
| Yudai Maehara | -11.7 | +0.04 | -0.05 | -0.8% | -0.10 | +10.7% | +8.3% | 12.3% |
Shading is scaled to the largest difference in each column. Points from luck is the sum of the columns to its right, converted to points.
The hand that decided each 2020-21 game · Official stats such as points and placements are on the official M.League site.